Analyst: Apple Sees Strong Sales Over Thanksgiving Weekend

| Apple Stock Watch

Apple saw strong sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, according to Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu. The Associated Press reported that Mr. Wu based his analysis on in-the-field checks, where his team found strong foot traffic, even though Apple limited its discounts to a select few products and discounted a modest four to ten percent, modest in comparison to deeper discounts from other retailers.

Mr. Wu also told clients that Apple's Mac product line did well, despite higher price points for Macs and competition from Microsoft's newly minted Windows 7. To that end, he noted that iMacs and MacBooks were out of stock in some locations, which he characterized as a good sign. For the quarter, he told clients that his already aggressive estimates of 2.9 million Macs might prove "conservative."

Mr. Wu's research note didn't appear to have had much of an effect on Apple's stock, which traded lower through most of the morning and early afternoon trading session Monday as investors reacted negatively to a report on semiconductor sales.

As of this writing, AAPL was trading at US$199.90, down $0.69 (-0.34%), on moderate volume.

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.  

Comments

Bryan Chaffin

It’s fascinating that Apple’s Mac sales are growing even while PC prices plummet.  Just absolutely fascinating. As for the weekend past and the quarter ahead, Apple certainly appears poised for strong results.

Constable Odo

I suppose most of the price plummet for Windows PCs are those netbooks and I guess that’s what people seem to like on the Windows side.  The desktop offerings are not selling well at all.  So Apple is still not gaining market share, but it is grabbing lots of revenue from a small percentage of people.  I suppose that’s all that really matters.  I don’t care if Apple doesn’t have huge market share.  If they can make money from consistent .5% desktop and notebook market share gains yearly over the next five years that will be enough to easily sustain Apple’s growth.

erntheburn

Shaw Wu, like Gene Munster conducted insufficient checks on Apple Stores to produce realistic projections. They both only observed a handful of stores and counted sales coming out the front door. What about the back door? How many people bought the new iMac 27 inch, which comes in a massive box, pulled their cars up to the rear?

The discrepency in their reporting illustrates how ineffective their counting methods were. It’s amazing to me that they do such shoddy work when there’s so many clients and other investors committing lots of money on their recommendations and reporting.

The only Apple analyst firm that reported credible store numbers was Thomas Weisel Partners, and analyst Doug Reid, who said they did store checks at 41 Apple retail locations in the U.S., Canada and the U.K.

So it turns out that Munster’s reporting of disappointing Black Friday Apple Store sales is in contrast to what other analysts reoprted. And now we know why. Gene Munster has a reputation as an AAPL bull, and has earned the trust of many people and clients, but now that trust is apparently misguided. At least I’m questioning it.

In my opinion, there should be an objective rating on each and every professional analyst. Hmmm, that sounds like an excellent idea. Gotta go….

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