Apple’s iPad controlled some 75 percent of the tablet market during its September quarter with 11.1 million units sold. That massive lead won’t be fading any time soon assuming Apple’s holiday season sales are in line with Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley’s estimates.
“Our checks point to modest sales of most competing tablet offerings, including the RIM PlayBook, HP Touchpad, Motorola XOOM, HTC Flyer and several other Android-based tablets,” he said. “We anticipate very strong sales of the iPad 2 for the holiday quarter, and we are modeling iPad units ramping from 11.1 million units in the September quarter to 14.0 million units in the December quarter.”
iPad unit sales may close in on 60 million in 2012
He added that sales of low-price 7-inch tablets are more of a threat to Android device makers than they are to Apple and the iPad.
“As such, given our updated iPad estimates, we anticipate Apple will command roughly 65 percent of the tablet units sold into the channel during C2011,” Mr. Walkley said. “However, we believe Apple’s sell-through share of the tablet market will exceed 75 percent during C2011.”
Come 2012, Apple may control almost 90% of the tablet market
Mr. Walkley also has high hopes for the iPhone, which he said currently brings more than half of the mobile phone industry’s profits while controlling less than 5 percent of the world wide cell phone market. “We believe Apple’s Q1/F2012 will mark a record quarter for iPhone sales, and we are modeling unit sales to increase roughly 70 percent sequentially to 29 million,” he said.
Assuming Mr. Walkley’s estimates are right, that’s bad news for other tablet makers hoping to take a piece of the iPad’s pie. With the iPad’s current market dominance, it looks like Apple’s competitors will have nothing but table scraps to fight over.
Mr. Walkley is maintaining his “Buy” rating and US$550 target price for Apple’s stock. Apple is currently trading at 396.71, down 3.53 (-0.88%).