Charlie Wolf, an analyst with Needham, sent a note to investors on Friday noting that Mac and iPhone sales are considerably higher than his projection in September, 2009. He estimates that Apple will sell 48+ million iPhones in 2011 and 6 million iPads in 2011. His target price for AAPL is now US$280.00.
In a long term projection seldom seen amongst analysts, Mr. Wolf predicted that Apple wold sell 142+ million iPhones in 2019.
Mr. Wolf sees a steady ramp in iPad sales, perhaps not as optimistic as some other analysts, like Brian Marshall with Broadpoint AmTech who predicts Apple will sell 7 million iPads in CY2010. Mr. Wolf's number is a more conservative 2 million in 2010 and rising to nearly 20 million in 2019.
These long range projections show phenomenal numbers and are probably both a justification for his AAPL target price and a reminder that Apple's knack for growth can catch observers by surprise in the long term if they don't monitor trends carefully.
Mr. Wolf also sees the iPod sales declining from 53 million in 2010 to only 35.5 million in 2019. That's a long time to achieve such a decline. For more perspective on the various contributions to Apple's revenue, see this chart from Silicon Alley Insider on January 26 and imagine another layer on top contributed by the iPad -- and making up for iPod declines.
5 Comments Leave Your Own
With a prediction for 2019, nearly ten years out, Charlie Wolf and Needham cannot be taken seriously by anyone and are pulling a classic pump n’dump.
Agreed. 9 years in the tech world is a lifetime. By 2019 the “iPhone” may not even be on the market any more, having been replaced by something else. (What were you using in 2001)
I think I agree, and one doesn’t often see projections like that. I believe what Mr. Wolf was trying to emphasize was the long term potential and knack for growth of Apple. If we keep the 3 year product blinder on, we never really get a feel for the juggernaut Apple is becoming.
I’d like to ask him what Apple’s share price will be in three months, but he’d probably only shrug his shoulders and walk away. Apple’s target prices have been upgraded for the past few months and the stock has basically not moved, so I guess in three months it will be about $200 a share. What a chuckle.
6 million I Pads in 2011. I’d sell every share I have right now. He can see 8 years out but not right in front of his own nose. At least 10 million in calender ‘10.
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