Apple Death Knell #64: Apple Must Deliver iWatch in 60 Days or Disappear

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Apple Death Knell #64It is a somber time in the annals of Appledom, for in a mere 60 days the countdown to Apple's dissolution will have begun. Unless, that is, the company delivers an iWatch or something innovative within that time frame. Oh, crap. This was way back on Thursday, and today is Friday. So there are really only 59 days left.

What a bummer. Oh, well, it's good to know that we'll soon be able to put this whole Apple flash-in-a-pan thing behind us, right? It's been so stressful wondering how the world's most valuable company can make it from day to day, but we won't have to worry much longer because Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research is here to let us know how it is.

"They [Apple] only have 60 days left to either come up with something or they will disappear," Mr. Chowdhry told CNBC. "It will take years for Apple's $130 billion in cash to vanish, but it will become an irrelevant company ... it will become a zombie, if they don't come up with an iWatch."

That's right, folks. Apple has 60 59 days to release the iWatch, or poof! They're out of here. No ifs, ands, or buts, and no second chances, either, for those of you looking for some kind of hidey-hole way out of this mess. Nope. Apple is toast unless it delivers unto we, the masses, the iWatch in just under two months.

Now, Trip Chowdhry is about as insightful as my friend Rob Enderle when it comes to Apple, only less accurate. He has uttered a lot of nonsense about the company over the years...allow me to digress a moment.

John Gruber reminded us that Mr. Chowdhry's prognostications include a 2009 bit where he tells us that the 3rd generation iPhone won't do as well as the previous iPhone because the Palm Pre is going to kick its iButt.

It's like he could see directly into the future, right?

More recently he called for Tim Cook's ouster as CEO of Apple because Mr. Cook isn't aggressive on delivering disruptive innovations. This week, though, he was ballsy enough to lay on the specifics, and I'll give him some credit for that. He could have weenied out and said that Apple had to ship the iWatch "Soon™" or "in the near future." Or maybe even "the first half of 2014," or better yet, "this year." But no, it's deliver the iWatch in 59 days or it's bye-bye birdie.

And I also have to admire the finality of his perceived consequences. Some analysts might have gone with something like, "If Apple doesn't deliver the iWatch before Google's Wear hits the market, the company will likely enter a phase where it is considered a me-too has-been. If that happens, Apple will take a revenue hit in subsequent quarters as its customer base flocks to Android. At that point, the only thing that could arrest Apple's slide would be its next chance at delivering another disruptive product."

That would have been laughable, but Trip Chowdhry was so much more specific. According to him, Apple will "disappear" and become an "irrelevant zombie." Bold, bold words from someone with a terrible track record.

Perversely, Mr. Chowdhry's pronouncement has me hoping Apple misses this 60 day window. If Apple does deliver the iWatch before Monday, May 19th, its miraculous survival will be within Mr. Chowdhry's escape parameters, giving him the chance to say "I told you this is what it would take."

In any event, I am enshrining this bit of drivel as entry #64 in the Apple Death Knell Counter, where it can live alongside the many other predictions of Apple's imminent demise.

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Comments

craigf

“irrelevant… zombie”?

As we used to say in the schoolyard — it takes one to know one.

wab95

Holy great expectations, Batman!

How could Mr Chowdhry be so precise? He must be a sage, indeed an oracle! Or perchance he was just toying with his crystal balls when this came to him. This could prove to be even deadlier to Apple than did the Mayan calendar extinction event in 2012! For goodness’ sake, man! How can you muster levity in the face of such prescience? We should all be selling our Apple stock before the hour strikes. O hark! Mr Chowdhry posteth an ‘overweight’ rating on Apple stock, and a target price of $800 (?!!). Methinks I might yet stow that stock awhile. 

While I shouldn’t think he will lose any sleep over it, it must be at least a mild irritant to Tim Cook that he, and his company, have to suffer, almost daily, such unmitigated nonsense as this.

 

MacFrogger

Bryan:  I don’t mean to sound picky, but 60 days from March 19 is not April 19…  smile

Bryan Chaffin

Thanks for catching that, MacFrogger. Should have been May 19th (60 days from March 20th).

MacFrogger

Bryan:  You’re welcome.  I feel like a copy editor today - I just pointed out a problem with John’s Particle Debris as well…

Paul Goodwin

Remember Tom Hanks’ laugh in The Money Pit, when he was stuck in the hole in the floor?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

HAHAHAHAHA.

skipaq

He does have one loophole left unless somewhere he predicted how long this would take. So in about 200 years should Apple become such as he proclaims; he can claim victory.

vpndev

ADKC ==  Analyst Dumb-Kluck Counter

John Dingler, artist

Heh! Good hammering back at swami Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research.

Wonder if GER is Chowdhry’s one man operation, like Enderle’s or, if he’s a member of a larger operation. If the latter, I wonder if his brethren will have a chuckle at his expense or if all of them are in on his shenanigan.

bmenozzi

Perhaps the prognostication should read as follows:  “Trip Chowdry and Global Equities Research only have 60 days to come up with an accurate prediction of Apple’s future, or Global Equities Research will disappear, becoming an irrelevant company…”

RonMacGuy

Hey Bryan, way to hold people like Trip Chowdhry and Rob Enderle accountable for the stupid things they have said about Apple in the past.  Sure wish I were still allowed to do that!!

grin

Vanessa Damphoose

You really have to ask yourself why would Apple make an iWatch? There are 40-50 smart watches on the market now and they do not sell. Look at the NPD data. Apple is going to spend billions to get into a category even less popular than the set-top box category (Apple TV). What Apple needs to do is defend the castle. The iPhone and to some extent the iPad need to get better.
The market for iWatch are basically people who have iPhones who can afford to spend another $200 on device that just basically makes it easier to get to the information ALREADY ON YOUR PHONE. Yes, the market too lazy to reach into their pockets.
There is also the health and fitness features but that’s a niche market too. I just don’t see Apple diving into these mini markets. Maybe someday we will all have wearable tech (oh please god no). If Apple jumps in then it will not matter that they waited. If the device is up to Apple usual standards people will buy it. I have no problem with Apple sitting on the sidelines and waiting this one out.

RonMacGuy

You really have to ask yourself why would Apple make an iWatch?

No Vanessa, that is the wrong question.  You really have to ask yourself, what wearable technology does Apple plan to sell that will fill a void in our lives and provide us with features/functions that are so elegantly executed we will question how we could have lived without it for so long.

Your assumption of an iWatch is, most likely, far off from what Apple will release.  Will it be on the wrist?  Perhaps.  Will its primary function be to provide the time to you?  Absolutely not.  I don’t think it will have anything to do with people being too lazy to reach into their pockets.

Your line of reasoning (if applied to Apple releasing an iPhone in 2007):

“You really have to ask yourself why would Apple make an iPhone?  There are 100-120 cell phones on the market now.  Apple is going to spend billions to get into a category even less popular than desktop computers and music players.  What Apple needs to do is defend the castle.  The Macs and to some extent the iPods need to get better.  Yes, the market is too lazy to access the internet from their PCs - they need to do it from their cell phones too?!?!?”

You see how silly that sounds now that we know how well the iPhone disrupted the cell phone industry and set the new standard on which all smart phones are based?  I suspect it will be similar with the iWearableGear.

Just my opinion, of course…

 

jfh17

I know this is Apple related because it’s on the death knell counter, but I just hate that these idiots “journalism” (click bait) gets more pub because of it. Too bad these analysts aren’t held to the same standard they pigeon hole Apple into and get fired for their unimaginative and innovative-less regurgitation of the same bull.

jhorvatic

This person apparently doesn’t do any research about Apple at all does he.
Apple doesn’t necessarily come out with the first of anything. The MP3 player was out for several years until 2001 when Apple introduced the iPod and the iTunes store. 2007 the smart cell phone had been out for years until Apple brought the iPhone to market. Tablets and notebooks were out for years until 2010 when Apple introduced the iPad. So I guess Apple will be history because I don’t see that iWatch coming out within his 59 day time limit.
I’m not sure how he can calculate Apple losing all of the 80 to 120 billion dollars it has in reserve plus what it makes in profits quarterly within 60 days.
I know one thing, if you are investing with his company I would rethink that choice heavily because this guy isn’t going to make you any money period!

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