Early Guestimate for Apple Q1 Revenue: $60B, 55M iPhones

| News

Asymco's Horace Dediu, after some admitted prodding, has published his initial, guestimate for Apple Q1 revenue and product sales. There are plenty of questions and caveats, but the numbers come from an experienced Apple analyst.

Mr. Dediu opens with an assessment of the many challenges to estimating Apple's number for the previous quarter and then goes on to give his best estimates as follows:

  • iPhone units: 55.5 million (50%/62%)
  • Macs: 5.0 million (-4%/+3%)
  • iPads: 24.4 million (58%/70%)
  • iPods: 11.2 million (-27%/-22%)
  • Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 25%/38%
  • Peripherals rev. growth: 10%/19%
  • Software rev. growth: 5.5%/14%
  • Total revenues: $60.0 billion (30%)
  • Gross margins: 39.8%
  • Earnings per Share: $15.74 (13%)

The analyst explains the growth numbers in parentheses. "The first is a straight y/y value and the second is adjusted by assuming there were 13 weeks last year (and that sales were evenly distributed over those weeks)."

While these number may be only preliminary estimates, if they're even close, it's a sign that Apple will report a very good quarter. (Apple's previous record for iPad sales in a quarter was 17 million and 37 million for the iPhone.)

Mr Dediu warns that he's uncomfortable with the forecast because of all the considerations and variables, and we'll know more as time goes along. Apple's formal earning report is on January 23 at 5 PM EST.

Sign Up for the Newsletter

Join the TMO Express Daily Newsletter to get the latest Mac headlines in your e-mail every weekday.

5 Comments Leave Your Own

Constable Odo

iPod sales down YOY.  Apple is known as the iPod company.  Apple shares are going to tank heavily.  I can almost smell Wall Street’s disappointment.

Rosco

Who cares about iPods. Apple doesn’t need iPod sales to grow. That is yesterday’s news. Get real.

Ted c

Wall stree disappoiment over ipods? Do you know what you are talking about?iPods almost don’t need to be mentioned anymore. Did you know iTune/apps now brings in more revenue than iPods ? iPod sales have been shrinking for years now and most analysts only include them as a top item for history.

wab95

Rosco:

Constable Odo is a seasoned commenter here. You may have missed that his comment is saturated with sarcasm. I believe his point is that it’s the Street that needs to get real.

Dave

Constable Odo,
You really have no idea of what you speak, or you ahvebene ina coma for tha last 6 years. iPod sales have been going down for YEARS. Steve Jobs said when asked about what if the iPhone were to cannibalize their iPod sales, that if they were to be cannibalized, Apple wanted to do it. And that is exactly what happened. Apple’s iPhone business is way larger than iPod business ever was.

Log-in to comment