Forbes Analyst Makes Realistic Apple Earnings Assessment, Confuses Clickbaiters

| Editorial

$AAPLForbes contributor Chuck Jones spelled out his predictions about Apple’s March quarter. In a break from virtually every other analyst ever, he lays out the facts and his conclusions with a minimum of hand-wringing and no sounding of the DOOMED bell.

In his piece, he lists Apple’s guidance information and compares it to his own modeling. He then proceeds to point out that he has "unknowns" to consider as well. Those unknowns are China’s impact on iPhone sales worldwide, if the “next iPhone” rumors are causing people to hold off, and carrier upgrade restrictions limiting sales.

Overall, Mr. Jones characterizes the numbers as “nothing to get excited about,” because his predictions are for revenue and and iPhone/iPad sales to be flat overall. That sounds like bad news until you read his estimate of revenue for the quarter (remember kids, a quarter is three months) comes in over US$43 BILLION dollars.

Wait, what? No mention of what Apple MUST do in order to survive? Not a single invocation of the words DOOOOMED, beleaguered, or Steve Jobs? Chuck Jones sounds all reasonable and level-headed. I'm convinced it's just a question of time before a gang of untethered-from-reality analysts appear at his door waving torches and pitchforks and iPhone 6 cases.

I felt the need to report this because it is the opposite of what we have become accustomed to with analysts, although technically he's a former Wall Street analyst turned pundit. Who knows, though? Maybe this level-headed approach for Apple could catch on with the pundit class? It could happen.

Right? 

Sign Up for the Newsletter

Join the TMO Express Daily Newsletter to get the latest Mac headlines in your e-mail every weekday.

Comments

Lee Dronick

  Maybe this level-headed approach for Apple could catch on with the pundit class? It could happen.

Yeah, it could happen, but don’t hold your breath smile

Paul Goodwin

Haha Kelly. Where did you even find an article without all that negativity?

vpndev

I remember a time - about thirty years ago ...

It now seems like a distant galaxy of computer development but actually a huge amount of cool stuff was going on - the world-wide networking before the Internet.

Anyhow, a very savvy Vice President of Engineering said that one might make predictions for about a year hence, or ten-year-prognognistications but never anything in between. Within a year you would be right or at least quite close (in those days), and after ten years no-one would remember what you’d said.

In those days your one-year predictions would certainly be remembered and scrutinized. But seemingly no more, and I believe that is a bad thing.

If you’re job is an analyst then your reputation should be built more upon accuracy than page-views.

Hopefully Mr Jones piece is indicative of a return to that standard.

vpndev

s/you\‘re/your/

Constable Odo

$43 billion is nice, but unfortunately Wall Street is expecting about $5 billion more and anything less will cause a major sell-off of Apple stock.  There is no reason for any investors to buy a dead stock in a company with shrinking smartphone market share and expect to get anything worthwhile in return.  With Apple considering charging more for the next iPhone, it’s almost a guarantee that Apple will lose even more market share.  It’s hard to fathom in a market where everyone is concerned about loss of subsidies, Apple is stubbornly trying to increase subsidies.  It’s a real head-scratcher.  Apple appears to only notice things from its own viewpoint and seems quite oblivious to what’s going on outside of its own small sphere.

vpndev

>but unfortunately Wall Street is expecting about $5 billion more
you wouldn’t happen to have any sources for this thought, would you? Maybe reputable analysts would like to disagree with Apple’s guidance of $42-44 but, given Apple’s recent approach to guidance, they need to articulate their reason for wanting more. Are you the herald?

> and anything less will cause a major sell-off of Apple stock
Maybe. Let’s wait and see the clarity of your crystal ball in a couple of weeks.

vpndev

> and anything less will cause a major sell-off of Apple stock

By the way - where do you think these ever-so-prescient investors will put their funds?

Please don’t tell us that the Streeties are uncomfortable in disclosing *that* information.

D R

he no longer has a hedge fund on the other side of a “chinese wall” shorting the stock right before the announcement…

skipaq

The stock will go up or down based on Apple’s projections and other indicators of the company’s future. If Apple hits or beats guidance there will be little movement from that. If there is evidence of new product initiatives that would out weigh the financial report.

John Dingler, artist

That Jones’s projections are going against what other analysts say may be his gambit to stand out from the analyst crowd, perhaps to acquire some good reputation or, in this context, using his unusual stance as click bait? After all, writing bad news against Apple may be attracting less and less readers.

ibuck

Kelly, thanks for posting this refreshing story. AAPL has become a much more “interesting” and mercurial stock as a result to all the controversy surrounding it, and the unreasonable, in my view, expectations of the company, and of Tim Cook, etc.  Often it seems that Apple can’t win. Even if they do release a big hit this year, and sell quickly through however many millions it initially produces, critics will pan the stock due to poor planning.  Here’s hoping this analyst is correct, and that the wild swings of the stock price will diminish.

craigf

Odo, fer crissakes. You’re holding Peter Misek’s BS against Apple? I wouldn’t bet the farm on anything that a loose cannon like him says.

Log-in to comment