Gartner: Apple iPad Will Dominate Tablets Through 2015

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Apple’s iPad is going to dominate the tablet market through 2015, according to market research firm Gartner, but the genre-defining device will lose market share all the way. Gartner believes the iPad will take 68.7% of the market in 2011, dip slightly in 2012, and end 2015 with 47.1% of the market, still #1. Over the same period, Garnet believes that Android will have a slow start in the tablet space, but rise to 38.6% of the market at #2 by 2015, while BlackBerry follows a similar, but smaller trajectory to have 10% share in 2015.

In a statement, Gartner analysts said, “Apple iPad did to the tablet PC market what the iPhone did to the smartphone market: re-invented it.” The company said that media tablets aren’t merely a different form of PC, but rather that they, “deliver a richer experience around content consumption, thanks to the ecosystem they support. The richer the ecosystem, the stronger the pull for consumers.”

The company said that companies looking to compete with iPad are trying to do so by, “first delivering on hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem.”

This is a mistake, according to Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. The analyst echoed this reporter’s analysis saying that, “Tablets will be much more dependent on [applications, services and overall user experience] than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple.”

Despite that, however, the firm believes that time will allow iPad’s competitors to eventually pick up steam, eroding Apple’s market share while the market explodes. By 2015, Gartner is forecasting Apple to be selling 138.5 million iPads per year. If Apple were to achieve those numbers, the company could be bringing in more than $70 billion per year just in iPad sales (at an average price of $500 each).

Worldwide Sales of Media Tablets to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

 OS

2010

Mkt
Share
 

2011

Mkt
Share
 

2012

Mkt
Share
 

2015

Mkt
Share

iOS

  14,766

83.9%

  47,964

68.7%

   68,670

63.5%

  138,497

47.1%

Android

2,502

14.2%

13,898

19.9%

26,382

24.4%

113,457

38.6%

MeeGo

107

0.6%

788

1.1%

1,271

1.2

3,057

1.0%

WebOS

0

0.0%

2,796

4.0%

4,245

3.9%

8,886

3.0%

QNX

0

0.0%

3,901

5.6%

7,134

6.6

29,496

10.0%

Other Operating Systems

234

1.3%

432

0.6%

510

0.5%

700

0.2%

Total Market

17,610

 

   69,780

 

   108,211

 

   294,093

 

For the BlackBerry PlayBook, Research In Motion is using a new OS called BlackBerry Tablet OS, which is based on QNX, an OS the company acquired early in 2010. Gartner believes, “It will take time and significant effort for RIM to attract developers and deliver a compelling ecosystem of applications and services around QNX to position it as a viable alternative to Apple or Android,” but the firm said if it can do so, it will attract users to the platform.

In addition, early adoption of BlackBerry PlayBook will be limited to organizations (i.e. businesses), particularly those organizations with existing BlackBerry infrastructure.

Comments

paikinho

The iPad 6 will sure be an amazing piece of machinery. Can’t wait for mine.

wab95

This analysis also makes assumptions about Android, both in terms of its performance and ability to surmount legal challenges in the early months ahead, a period that will be critical to the platform gaining traction amongst those all-important early adopters, whose adoption in turn motivates the masses.

If it does so on both fronts, then the analysis is reasonable.

Substance

As I think John just mentioned in one of his columns, these predictions are worthless when the underlying technology is still maturing.  And so much of the prediction is based on past performance that may or may not mean anything in the future. 

Take for example Blackberry, who has weathered the iPhone assault so far of it’s ties to enterprise users.  But enterprise users are going to stay with Blackberry forever if they don’t innovate and their competitors make their products more worthy for the enterprise.  Considering that the forthcomign Blackberry tablet breaks almost all ties to existing Blackberry apps and so far offers nothing for enterprise users except being a Blackberry, I could easily see a lot of enterprise admins getting their hands on the table, seeing first-hand how little it does for them, and then wait until Blackberry, Apple, HP or even Microsoft brings something that really suits their needs.

wab95

these predictions are worthless when the underlying technology is still maturing.? And so much of the prediction is based on past performance that may or may not mean anything in the future

Agreed. However, one might expect that professional industry watchers and analysts would at least take into account known threats to very basic underlying assumptions and model projections. This is sloppiness unworthy of a lone grad student, let alone a firm of professionals.

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