I think Android will be replacing Windows Mobile’s position relative to the iPhone, i.e. it too will be an also-ran.

Obviously android phones will be huge because they are like the pc clones i.e. any phone manufacturer can make use of the technology to make a phone.

The next point is how will the android phones stay relevant. The last generation iPhone’s OS can be updated but can the previous generation of android phones be updated with the latest OS.

Ease of use will dictate the popularity of the phones not features.

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The next point is how will the android phones stay relevant. The last generation iPhone’s OS can be updated but can the previous generation of android phones be updated with the latest OS.

I think that’s a non-issue.

Lately, smart phone users - traditionally, the ‘techie’ vanguard of phone users, overall - are growing accustomed to the notion of one-year obsolescence. And, increasingly, US cell providers are encouraging this behavior by offering easier trade-in terms, especially at the 12-month mark. For example, existing subscribers can get the Droid for ~$150, with a new contract.

Eventually, to stay competitive and cut churn, Apple will be forced to offer similar deals - something which will seriously erode their enviable margins. And, speaking of Apple, iPhone iterations vary greatly in performance. 1G phones have significantly worse network reception; only the 3GS has a compass and it is also the only model which meets the security requirements of MS Exchange service.

Ease of use will dictate the popularity of the phones not features.

I’ll agree in one, narrow - but important - respect: lots of folks have iPods. That means they are familiar with cable hookup and the iTunes sync-interface (plus non-removable battery, exchange-based service plan, etc.), all of which are shared by the iPhone. That’s ease-of-use, for sure.

But price is always a bigger factor than convenience. And that’s where Android succeeds against iPhone, by bringing together dozens of handset makers, carriers and vendors (plus who knows how many associated developers) into a unified force with one goal: make money from Android. No way can the Apple/AT&T effort muster enough cash, talent or clout to go up against that army, especially once they drive down prices…which has already begun.

In a couple years, if nothing changes, Apple will find themselves a niche player touting the dubious benefits of their ‘premium product’...while losing share, the whole time. Shades of 1990.

The iPhone will continue its market share gains because of its application advantage.  I have over 50 apps on my phone some I use everyday like NeuroMobile and some news readers.  The number of apps is steadily increasing.  Other smart phone makers will need to figure out how to combat this advantage in order to successfully compete with the iPhone,