IHS Calls Apple’s iPad 2012 Tablet Domination ‘No Contest’

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Apple lost tablet market share in the 4th quarter of 2011, but that was nothing more than a speed bump, according to research firm IHS. The company issued a report on Wednesday that said Apple’s domination of the tablet market in 2012 will be “no contest,” and pinned the company’s advantage on its whole widget model.

“The key to Apple’s media-tablet success has been its offering of a complete hardware-plus-content ecosystem,” Rhoda Alexander, director for monitors and tablets research at IHS, said in a statement. “The combination of a good-looking device, well-designed applications, video, books and music has provided consumers with an easy-to-use product and an appealing use case.”

She also noted that it took Apple years to put all of this together, beginning with Apple’s launch of the iTunes Music Store in 2003 when the company was focused on the iPod. More importantly, she said, “It’s proving to be a challenge for the company’s competitors to replicate it.”

The chart below shows IHS’s total tablet projections out through 2016.

IHS Tablet Projections

Chart by The Mac Observer from IHS Data

Share Projections

IHS is projecting Apple to claim 61 percent of the media tablet market in 2012. That’s up from 55.1 percent in the December quarter, when Amazon’s Kindle Fire, which is technically an Android device, leapt out of the gate with a hot quarter. Since then, Kindle Fire has cooled off, and IHS believes that Android’s share of the market will slip from 41.1 percent in Q4 2011 to 38.4 percent for all of 2012.

We should note that IHS’s overall Apple share predictions have decreased since August of 2011, when the firm was projecting that Apple would have 74 percent of the market in 2012.

7.8” iPad

IHS is among a growing number of firms and analysts saying that supply-side sources are claiming that Apple will be releasing a 7.8” iPad later in 2012 (other sources are specifying a 7.85” device). In Wednesday’s report, the company said it will be released in 2012, and that Apple will use the same premium-quality pricing strategy that has left the 9.7” iPad tops in tablets.

Comments

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Kindle Fire is more than technically an Android device. You can sideload apps on it by flipping a setting in the device preferences. Adding Google Play requires temporarily rooting the device, but is quite straight-forward. Read how here. If you have a Kindle Fire, you probably know some kid who could get Google Play installed on it for you.

Bryan Chaffin

Uh-huh. By that same reasoning, iPhone is a completely open device. All you have to do is jailbreak it.

Kindle Fire is an Amazon device that does little to expand the Android tablet market.

It does a little in that some apps will run on it for developers who get their wares on Amazon’s Appstore for Android (which they should). That definitely expands the user base, but in a very limited fashion.

Google definitely loses out.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

You cannot side-load apps on an iPhone without jailbreaking. On Kindle Fire, you simply set a preference. And you then have access to several 3rd party app stores, direct downloads, and custom applications. That causes Amazon zero heartburn. They could have gone the B&N route and disabled it.

But I still don’t get why you insist on looking at KFire through Apple eyes. All that does is make your discussion of it look totally uninformed with time. A year ago, according to Mac people, the KFire was going to be a kludged, unrecognizable fork of Android, and probably an old version at that. Turns out, it’s stock Gingerbread with a replacement home screen (which you can replace by side loading, no kidding) and device preference app. You called it a loss leader, when there was comparable hardware from the Chinese sites in the $150 range.

The part I really find funny is that you insist that KFire is giving Google heartburn. It’s not. They actually understand and embrace the open source model. If you took Page, Brin, Schmidt, and Rubin, and connected a car battery to their nipples in series with regular jumper cables, you would not get one of them to dis Amazon. Not because they are particularly adept with enduring humiliating group torture, but because they have no real bad feelings about what Amazon is doing.

Google will always have strong influence on the mobile industry because it is the creator steward of the most popular mobile stack. The bad predictions about what the KFire would be should be a tip that while Android is very, very open, it is prohibitively costly for even the biggest companies to come in and essentially fork it.

mrmwebmax

+

You can sideload apps on it by flipping a setting in the device preferences. Adding Google Play requires temporarily rooting the device, but is quite straight-forward. Read how here. If you have a Kindle Fire, you probably know some kid who could get Google Play installed on it for you.

Can’t resist. It’s not about mobile, but close enough. Give you a hint: I’m not linking because of either Mac or PC (warning: fairly adult, NSFW):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=t-L-0s-7-Z0

I mean, this is actual advice to get a device that can kind of function the way you want if “you probably know some kid who could get Google Play installed on it for you.”???

The power of community, indeed.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

@mrmgraphics: I happen to strongly believe that tinkerable platforms and devices are more valuable long term even to the simpletons, but that’s not my point here. My point here is that so much commentary about the KFire simply mischaracterizes what it actually is or does.

In particular, it is most definitely not a copy of Apple’s whole widget model, and does not erect artificial walls against “unauthorized customization”. A much better approximation of Apple’s whole widget model in Android space are the B&N Nook Color and Tablet. I even think that is better for some situations, like the under 10 crowd (seriously). But KFire is not that at all.

mrmwebmax

+

@mrmgraphics: I happen to strongly believe that tinkerable platforms and devices are more valuable long term even to the simpletons, but that?s not my point here.

That was really the only point I was referring to, not the real or perceived value of the Kindle. It’s a simple difference in opinions: I know you like tinkerable platforms. Hence your preference for Android. It’s just something in your post reminded me so much of the Mac/PC/Linux parodies (especially the part about relying on a kid to get function out of a device that doesn’t come out of the box) that I couldn’t resist posting.

As for the tinkerable vs. out-of-the-box argument: My opinion is that much depends on the device, audience, and intended use. I like iOS because I just want it to work. I don’t even want to think about it. At the same time, I’m a website developer that only used LAMP hosting (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP—of course I know you know that, that’s for others who might not), and I only, only, only build on the open-source Drupal CMS.

Of the top three open-source CMS platforms, there’s no doubt that WordPress is the easiest and most popular, Joomla! is more powerful than WordPress but has a steeper learning curve, and that Drupal is the most powerful, yet comes with the steepest learning curve.

I use Drupal because it does what I want, and host on LAMP so I can tweak things like .htaccess. At the same time, I’m not going to hold off from using a commercial piece of software if it makes my job easier. I don’t consider it “cheating"that I use a little-known piece of commercial software for the slideshows on my websites, because they index very well on Google (all CSS and JavaScript, no Flash), and I can get them up and running quickly, even though they require some hand-coding in Drupal.

Yes, you can create content types and go into Views and maybe get the same functionality for free (and in 100% Drupal form), but when a commercial client needs a website up and running fast to sell products, I use the best and most efficient tools I can find.

There are arguments for open-source vs. commercial, tinkerable vs. out-of-the-box, but I truly believe that one size does NOT fit all: You’d never be comfortable with iOS, in the same way that so many consumers who just want it to work would never be comfortable with Android. Even if they know a smart kid down the block.

RonMacGuy

I still find it interesting that “The #1 best-selling product on Amazon” kindle fire has a rating that finds 1 in 4 people considering it at best, average, and at worse, downright awful. Out of 17,405 customer reviews, 4,566 reviews gave it a 1, 2, or 3 star rating out of 5. That’s 26%. 1 in 10 give it a 1 star. And, given the fact that the total number of customer reviews hasn’t changed a whole lot lately tells me interest is definitely dying out.

skipaq

Oh! Just leave the tiny Fire unicorn alone. Droidfans need something to carry their tablet hopes. Besides, the little fella isn’t much bother.

RonMacGuy

Oh! Just leave the tiny Fire unicorn alone. Droidfans need something to carry their tablet hopes. Besides, the little fella isn?t much bother.

But skipaq, in “about a year” the iPad will be “declining and mostly irrelevant.”  Mark my words.  Well, mark someone else’s words, actually.  Mark their words.

Man, I just LOVE that quote!!

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