iSuppli Forecasts Android Marketshare to Surpass iOS in 2012

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Google’s Android OS marketshare in the smartphone market will grow to surpass Apple’s share of the market with its iOS platform in 2012, according to new forecast from iSuppli. The research firm said that by 2012, there will be some 75 million Android devices on the market, while Apple will have some 62 million iOS devices.

iSuppli estimates that Android will then have some 19.4% of the market at that time, up from 2.7% in 2009, and that Apple’s iOS marketshare will sit at 15.9%, up from 13.8% in 2009. The firm further forecast that Android will rise to 22.8% of the market in 2014, and that iOS will decline to 15.3%.

“Android is taking the smart phone market by storm,” Tina Teng, senior analyst, wireless communications, for iSuppli said in a statement. “The OS started with entry level models in 2008, but the flexibility Android offers for hardware designs and its appealing business model in terms of revenue sharing have attracted vigorous support from all nodes in the value chain, including makers of high-end smart phone models.”

She added, “Cell phone OEMs representing all tiers of the industry have committed to support Android, including Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson, LG, Huawei, AsusTek and ZTE. This broad industry support will allow the Android OS’s usage and market share to exceed that of its chief rival — iOS — in 2012, just five years after its introduction.”

The firm’s report also noted that Apple’s iPhone will continue, “to be the standard by which all other smart phones are measured,” said that the company’s proprietary approach will limit the company’s reach into the market place.

iSuppli Chart

Source: iSuppli

“While Google is trying hard to capture market share in the smart phone market, Apple’s strategy is aimed at making its products highly desirable but not necessarily affordable for the mass market,” Jagdish Rebello PhD, senior director and principal analyst at iSuppli, said in a statement. “Apple has been successful in doing this with its friendly User Interface (UI), its slick OS and its well developed ecosystem of apps and content providers.”

The company said that Apple maintains an advantage with the size of the App Store for iOS devices, boasting more than four times as many apps as Android’s Marketplace. iSuppli believes, however, that Google has been and will continue to be able to narrow that gap going forward.

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9 Comments Leave Your Own

The Skeptic

I love predictions of success.  I assume that Tina will invest her money in Google/HTC/Samsung stock now, and retire rich in 2015?

MyRightEye

Hehe, we’ll see about this. Apple has decided it wants to own the iPhone market, and I assure you you that they will not just let this happen smile

Dogbrain

The $87 communication device: iTalk, PodFace - whatever they call it, it will be an easy way for everyone to communicate with front and back facing cameras, heating up all those servers in North Carolina, while buying and playing music bought through iTunes.

The video quality will be poor at that price, and of course it will be wi-fi only. People will want to upgrade….

Steve Jobs says they will make FaceTime open source - but it will be open source the way Android is, with features assuring lock-in to the Apple ecosystem.

barryotoole

Who know how the scene in 2015 will look like. Maybe we won’t need cellular services anymore. If wi-fi becomes ubiquitous, we’ll be VOIPing and FaceTiming on a device with no cellular radio.

davebarnes

Whatever.
Does Steve care about market share?
No, he does not.
He cares about profits.

Babyfacemagee

This report by isuppli makes no sense.  There are approx 60 million iphones sold NOW…and they all have iOS on them.  This does NOT include iPod Touch’s or iPads.  How are there only going to be 62 million iOS devices ‘by 2012’ like they say?  This is ridiculous.  If you add up iPod Touch’s and iPads and iPhones they have sold over 100 million iOS devices at this point and it’s only the 3rd quarter, 2010.  By 2012 with the rate of iPhone 4 and iPad sales they are likely to be approaching 150 million iOS devices sold.  Just iPhones alone at that point will be 100 million units sold.

Bennyboy

Babyface is right.  I don’t think isuppli knows how to count or what to count.  I think that iPads alone will outsell the total marketshare of Android devices.

Intruder

Not sure why this would be a surprise to anybody. Android is available to any phone or computer manufacturer, whereas IOS is not. Android will eventually displace Symbian and effectively block Windows 7 phone. Chrome will displace Windows 7 on netbooks and tablets.

The biggest question is: “Does it matter?”

The answer is: “No.”

Apple’s goal is not to dominate the phone and computer industries. Apple’s goal is to make a decent profit selling the iPhone and iPad. If they dominate, then so be it.

Will Android wipe out the IOS? Not a chance.

Bryan Chaffin

Intruder is right on all accounts.

In fact, I wrote a piece back in May called It?s When, Not If, Android Gets Bigger than iPhone where I used a lot more words to say something similar.

The real news to me in iSuppli’s forecast is them pinpointing the when.  They’re reasoning seems sound to me.

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