iSuppli Predicts Windows Phone’s Edge Over iOS by 2015

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2015 Smartphone Marketshare Pedestal image via Shutterstock.

Windows Phone, Microsoft’s most recent mobile operating system, will surpass iOS market share by 2015, market research firm IHS iSuppli predicted last week

Although currently in last place with 1.9% market share in 2011, Microsoft’s partnership with Finnish-based handset giant Nokia, which will deploy the Windows Phone OS on its current and future smartphones, will propel the young OS to second place status overall by 2015. Windows Phone’s predicted 16.7% market share will only barely beat Apple’s iOS, with 16.6%. The bad news for both companies is that Google’s Android, currently the number one platform by market share, is predicted to grow even further, taking the first ranked spot in 2015 with a dominant 58.1% share.

2015 Smartphone Marketshare

Chart by The Mac Observer from iSuppli Data.

iSuppli analyst Wayne Lam attributes a potential immediate jump in Windows Phone market share this year to Nokia’s new Lumia 900, which he called one of the hottest new products at this year’s CES. “This hot product represents Nokia’s first step to reclaim its market share. Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share in 2015,” Mr. Lam stated.

Further, although Nokia is not the only manufacturer producing phones powered by the Windows Phone OS, “because of Nokia’s support, apps developers will eagerly shore up the Windows platform. This will cause other makers of Windows Phone devices, such as Samsung and HTC, to offer more products supporting the OS—further expanding the market,” Mr. Lam forecast.

Predictions last year by research firms Gartner and IDC agree with iSuppli’s latest findings. They all predict Microsoft’s OS, powered by its Nokia partnership, to reach the number two spot by 2015.

Comments

geoduck

Windows Phone, Microsoft?s most recent mobile operating system, will surpass iOS market share by 2015,

It’s possible.

Google?s Android is predicted to grow even further, taking the first ranked spot in 2015 with a dominant 58.1% share.

Um… no.
I expect that any gains by WinPhone will come at the expense of Android.
A lot of it will depend on how MS presents WinPhone. If they, like Apple did, restrict the limitations and crapware that the Cell companies install then it might do well. If they have a closed walled garden app store with a lot of good quality apps free of malware they it might do well. If they don’t then it’s no better than Android and will cost more.

macProf

And in other news, apes will soon rise and take over the planet….

geoduck

And in other news, apes will soon rise and take over the planet?.

LOL

Garion

This is nuts.

Look, as an iPhone fan I welcome competition from Nokia/Windows Phone in the smartphone market. But to say that Windows Phones will ONLY take marketshare from iPhone and not a single % from Android is so crazy I don’t know where to begin!

Just think about it. Let’s say that you’re one of those PC-lovin’ Apple-hating types who would rather die before they’d consider an iPhone. Which kind of smartphone would you buy today? Most likely an Android phone, right? But with sleek and stylish new Windows Phones from Nokia on the market you suddenly have a credible alternative. With an OS from Apple’s old arch enemy Microsoft none the less! So I’d say that it makes more sense to expect Windows Phones to sell to todays Android owners, than it does to expect iPhone owners to go Windows on their smartphones?

Ross Edwards

I have over $5,000 in content purchases spread out across iTunes music, movies, TV shows, iBooks, the iOS App Store, and the Mac App Store.  The only way I would ever leave the Apple iOSX ecosystem would be if it ceased to exist.  I am the stickiest customer imaginable.  And I am perhaps on the deep side of average but there are customers in far deeper than me, and even those who are only in for a few hundred are likely to be very sticky.

Amazon is doing something similar with Kindle, since Kindle content is DRMed but people don’t really mind for some reason (perhaps since it’s not Apple).  A person who has bought even a few hundred dollars worth of Kindle books, video, and music, is not going to be leaving that ecosystem, but that ecosystem is available on iOS, Android, and Windows.  Amazon made a smart move by not getting into the OS business.  I have perhaps $200 worth of Kindle content, because books don’t cost much and that’s all I have bought from them for my old e-ink Kindle Reader.  I would bolt from the Kindle ecosystem if I had to, once I had read all the books.  So stickiness isn’t a problem there, but neither is it a drawback.

I have around $500 worth of content in the Windows ecosystem, most of it Xbox Live DLC, and most of that for the Rock Band series of games.  A few videos and movies as well, and some other games.  I don’t really want to leave that ecosystem, but right now it’s only really being propped up by an old Windows Live email account, my 360, and my old PC that spends most of its time serving as a MAME box.  It’s safe to say I’m sticky, but could be persuaded to bolt if I didn’t think the sunk cost was recoupable by any amount of foreseeable future usage.  If the Xbox 720 (or whatever) allows DLC to carry forward, and I can’t imagine why it wouldn’t since it’s trivial for MS to provide for this, then why not stay in the Windows ecosystem perpetually?  So maybe I’m even stickier than I realize, despite not being all that concerned with it in the here and now.  A nice position for MS to be in.

Who is the other heavy player?  Google, with Android.  Handset manufacturers Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG.  The whole point of Android is to root your device, side-load all your stuff, and load up on free apps and content.  Well then who cares if you walk away from it?  What is tying a person to that ecosystem, making it sticky?  GMail?  That’s on all platforms.  Google Plus?  Don’t make me laugh.  Seriously, what is it?  Lacking an ecosystem tie-in for content, there is nothing keeping Google’s customers theirs.  And once those customers dip their toes into the Apple OR Microsoft pool, they’re more likely to remain in that ecosystem than to abandon it.  And there’s no point in coming to Kindle if you’re on an Android phone or tablet because Amazon will already do that for you with their own devices.  The Android handset manufacturers are in the worst position of anybody.  They’re depending on attracting people with a marquee that is not self-sustaining.

The iSuppli trollbait graph has been torn to pieces over on AI and MR already, but it was worth sneering at one last time, and with analysis to back it up.  As above… if I had to pick the market by 2015, absurd a proposition as that is, I would predict: iOS 40%, Windows 25%, Android 25%, Other 10%.  Keep in mind that iOS 5 makes it very easy to be in iOS-land even if you’re a Windows PC user at home.  Not all iPhoners and iPadders are Mac users… in fact possibly not even a majority are.

ibuck

Market share, schmarket bear. Isn’t market share a red herring that’s an unreliable, unsophisticated indicator for investors? Or even for bragging about whose is bigger? Does it strongly correlate to profitability in the smartphone industry? Does it indicate which devices/OS are accessing the web or buying apps or content?

I just acquired a second-hand, gently used iPhone 4 from a relative. Does my purchase of that device count in market share? (No.) I didn’t buy an Android or Win phone, so a sophisticated market analysis should take that into account. I AM buying apps, so those purchases will count in app market share. And I am browsing the web with it, so it will also count in use-share. And my use of this iPhone certainly matters in the market that cell phone carriers chase.

Considering all this, is Lam’s “analysis” more like a shoot-from-the-hip, wild guestimate than anything of actual use to anyone? (It’s only of marginal use to phone component makers.)

mhikl

Good point iBuck. If Apple iPhones are truly made to last, then they should live on in places other than the back of sock drawers. The incentive to advance to the next level of iPhone is in the quality of make, part of which is what one can make when selling an older version, as well as all the razzmatazz that is the Apple experience.

And Ross, more thought went into your analysis than IHS iSuppli had time to put into theirs. Seems they had some similar predictions a few years ago that came up to naught. One thinks they should try to learn by life’s little lessons writ from yore.

So much fun.

mhikl

And in other news, apes will soon rise and take over the planet?.

Not quite apes from the movies , but . . .
http://www.wimp.com/mountaingorilla/

Paul Goodwin

HahahaHaha macProf LMBO

Paul Goodwin

Nokia!!! You’ve got to be kidding me. They’ve lost 90% of their corporate value since 2008. And Microsoft hasn’t added a penny to their stock in 10 years. I’m sure that partnership will just explode onto the scene. both companies have failed miserably in this market independently. Why would anyone think some light bulb would turn on when those two got together is beyond me.

I just looked at the comments to the article on the iSuppli website. It’s about 10 to 1 calling it nonsense. ISuppli headquarters are in El Segundo CA right next to LA International Airport. They’ve obviously inhaled too much jet exhaust.

zewazir

“Nokia on Thursday said its 4Q11 earnings fell 73 percent from the prior year as its push to sell its new Lumia Windows Phone failed to help it compete in a new marketplace. According to Reuters, the Lumia phone has sold more than one million units since it launched last November.”

Ummm, yea.  Clear indication iOS is going down…..

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