Negative Feelings About AAPL — What’s Going On with Apple?

| Editorial

Apple stock (AAPL) has fallen off a small cliff today. Are there real problems to worry about? Are investors fatigued? Or is it all just another manipulation in advance of Apple’s earnings report?

Apple is a company that’s just about unstoppable in its success. Demand for the iPad 2 remains strong, and some companies that had iPad roll out plans have had to defer. It would be reasonable to surmise that Apple will have a glowing earnings report.

Amidst this, however, there are some contrary winds. The disaster in Japan and consequent parts shortages and reports of the continuing rise in market share of Android seem to have investors spooked. Over the weekend, Henry Blodget at the Business Insider suggested that the iPhone is Dead in the water. His analysis was based on recent comScore data that showed negligible rise in iPhone market share over the past few months while Google gained 7 more percent.

Immediately, critics pointed out that the comScore data doesn’t fully reflect the availability of the Verizon iPhone because it was only available for a partial month. Even so, Phililp Elmer-DeWitt, doing some basic math with the data at hand, had a hard time uncovering the so-called Verizon iPhone bump.

Where does that leave us? There’s no question that Android is coming on fast in smartphone market share. A reasonable person would believe that Apple is concerned, even if Apple is selling boatloads of iPhones and making lots of money. And yet, rumors persist that Apple won’t be able to ship the iPhone 5 in June, for many solid reasons, and so investors are getting a bit edgy.

Worse, influential investors are always looking for a buying opportunity, and the confluence of negative events for Apple creates a convenient opportunity to drive AAPL down, just a few weeks prior to the company’s earnings report. Against this background, one might suppose that Apple might disclose how many iPads 2s it has sold, but one would suppose wrong. Apple employees like to buy stock as well, and April 20th, after the U.S. Stock Exchange closes, is the right time to brag about all that.

My take is that all the negative vibes in the air right now are making some investors nervous all the while others who are more confident are planning to swoop in and buy AAPL for a bargain price. It all depends on your personal take on Apple’s prospects. Personally, I think Apple is going to have some more fabulous news to announce on April 20th, and all the naysayers are going to look a little foolish — again.

AAPL is currently selling at US$340.13, down $4.43.

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Comments

dig

this type of negative-news cycle happens nearly every quarter pre-earnings for the last couple of years. if aapl doesn’t breakout to the upside the week before earnings it certainly will after. if you look at the chart you will see things very clearly.

Lee Dronick

Breaking news! Shoot out at the Otay Ranch Apple Store, 1 dead two arrested. See CBS 8

Lee Dronick

Looks like the video at Channel 8 is having problems, see Channel 7

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

John, is it possible that Henry Blodget, Phillip Elmer-DeWitt, and you are all correct? That is:
1. The iPhone is a lost battle, beaten by a more malleable and adaptable competitor.
2. The flaccid Verizon Unicorn basically let Apple’s phone market share tread water for a month on the backs of people dissatisfied with blue and hoping for something better with red.
3. Still Apple’s financials will be great because of the iPad.

Are there lessons for Apple and fans to learn from iPhone v. Android phones, or is it best to remain confident while being lapped? And what if a year from now, Apple fans are conceding the tablet space? Is that then a pattern of Apple control pushing it to a niche?

John Martellaro

Brad: yes, that is indeed possible.

However, not all is well in the Android world

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/04/android-is-a-mess-say-developers/

Dave

Being down 1.19% is falling off a cliff? Are you for real? Apple hit its low after Japan weeks ago, below $330. As an Apple investor I find your analysis to be extraordinary weak. Stick to technology, it seems like it might be your area of expertise

mhikl

Waltzing Agenda?s hubris is, of course, mountainous. It mounts. It falls. It gets back up. Again it falls. The dude?s a cowboy inept and the Duke would have called him sissy but with a name like Marion, what did the Duke know?

So, what?s the Mouth of Spiel got that makes him horrid? Well, we know he likes ferrets; and with that kinda taste, from the canine world, probably has a stable of Rottweilers and when not bullying on TMO they have great fun carousing the neighbourhood scaring little ?uns. Wonder if he has a little curl right in the middle of his forehead? Mum, get to the attic before he breaks a winder!

to quote HWL:
She stood on her head, on her little trundle bed,
With nobody by for to hinder;
She screamed and she squalled, she yelled and she bawled,
And drummed her little heels against the winder.

I hear Nelson laughin’.

adamC

@brad
The app store is enough to keep the iOS range of products on top.

The Android time bomb is it’s insecure and waiting to happen.

paikinho

Is Google being forced to take control? Apparently.

I guess Google will be forced to imitate Apple more and more if they can expect to harness the unwieldy beast. Holding their cards closer to the vest to ensure greater control is just what Apple is pilloried for.

Could this be because they are having trouble pressing their alleged advantage into the tablet market? Perhaps Google will have a much much harder time in the tablet market.

BurmaYank

How can anyone reasonably expect any significant “Verizon iPhone bump” to take place until after iPhone 5 (+/-LTE) is available.  Surely most prospective Verizon iPhone customers would have to be pretty mad with irrepressible desire to succumb to the temptation now to gratify that desire with such a short-term fix as a Verizon iPhone 4 (since being locked into 18 months with such a second-best iPhone would be a difficult “Jones” to endure from that foolish immediate gratification today, for those of us who can’t afford to burn our money.)

geoduck

The disaster in Japan and consequent parts shortages

FWIW Apple apparently just dropped the delivery time on the iPad2 from 3-4 weeks to 2-3 weeks. So much for the parts shortage.

http://www.macrumors.com/2011/04/04/ipad-2-shipping-estimates-for-online-orders-improve-to-2-3-weeks/

Lancashire-Witch

“Worse, influential investors are always looking for a buying opportunity…”

It’s one of the downsides of not paying a dividend ......  IOW, they make money on AAPL by buying - and selling.

Tiger

Tech stocks in general look bleak today. Funny thing is all signs for Apple are that mac computers are kicking butt. The Air is really taking off, the MBP is probably going to see another record quarter. It’s not that customers are ignoring Mac sales, it’s that analysts are!

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

The app store is enough to keep the iOS range of products on top.

The iPhone sure isn’t on top anymore. And Android has now caught up and passed the iPhone in the UK.

@paikinho: Before buying into the narrative of Google taking control like Apple, perhaps you might go back and (re-)read Eric Raymond’s classic The Cathedral and the Bazaar. One important point that he makes is that most open source projects need a high degree of control and direction before source is eventually let out. If 3-6 months from now, Honeycomb source isn’t out there, the narrative has legs. Right now, it doesn’t.

Google knows with absolute certainty that chaos is what let them go from effectively 0 to passing iPhone in 12-14 months. Android was and remains disruptive in phones. Just looking at new form factors and price points that are coming online this month, I expect Android Honeycomb to do the same in tablets. And if the likes of ViewSonic can get usable 7” tablets out for under $300, FroYo has some legs in this space too.

mhikl

If . . .  so much power in such a little word.

paikinho

@ Bosco,

Nice and interesting skim.

2 points:

1. Honeycomb isn’t new but built on an already robust code correct? The high degree of control you are talking about was when Linus was newly coding linux to attain a certain degree of functionality and needed to start with a feature set which was attractive enough to users that they would begin coding to their needs; a nidus for the crystal to form around….(aka The Necessary Preconditions for the Bazaar to begin) After that you let the it go and let the users dictate their needs.

2. The second stage was dictated by a different set of circumstances which is where Honeycomb is. Since Honeycomb isn’t really new but built on generations of code,  wouldn’t Linus’ mantra of release early and release often come into play?

I would argue that Google not releasing the source code is kind of like a company trying to control where the code needs to be and not letting the users control where the code needs to go. Google in essence is taking the Cathedral approach and not “The Bazaar” approach.

Raymond’s idea of control would not necessarily pertain to Google pulling code out of circulation at this late stage. It was more about the very beginning of a project like Linux or Fetchmail.

But you are probably not far off that in 3 months time Google will release the code. Still Cathedral is Cathedral.

Anyhow, I agree that a whole slew of 200-300 dollar mini-tablets might have an impact on the tablet market, but I think that Apple may do what they did with the 3GS and drop the price. Perhaps next year we will see an iPad2 for $300 and the new iPad 3 for $500 base price. Which would people rather have? iPad 2 for $300 or something with a worse screen and cheapy features for $300?

Do you really think Froyo will have some play 6 months out?

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

@paikinho: When Apple fans cry foul about Google not yet releasing source code, take it with a grain of salt. They don’t even get the point to begin with. In their view, Google has to imitate Apple to be successful, despite overwhelming and still growing evidence in the phone market to the contrary. Or they just say that Android isn’t actually successful for various reasons including Apple’s “profit share”. To me, the point is that as time moves on, Apple phone users will be in a shrinking niche. It will probably continue to make sense for developers to ship products for them, and some may continue to make a case that it is more profitable to do so, etc. Android phones will remain more amenable to whimsical and purposeful innovation from many quarters. They’ll continue to benefit most from unplanned developments.

Apple has been developing high negatives, and those negatives are seeping from the inside baseball crowd out into the public. The iPad 2 commercial is especially smug. How does it not lead to an SNL skit with a “smell my arse, I promise it smells of lilacs” punch line? And how is that kind of punch line funny if there isn’t an underlying perception to tap into? Xoom and all the Honeycomb tabs in the near future have bitchin user configurable widgets on the home screen. Apple fans will tell you that Apple is working on this and will get it perfect sometime in the future, while their home screens look totally pedestrian and they’re all fawning over a magnetically attached cover. Some Apple fans—the knowledgeable, helpful ones—will then explain how the iPad needs a strict energy budget, so widgets are a bad idea. It’s a tablet, not a frigging spacecraft, FFS. I don’t think Android tabs will beat iPad on home screen widgets. But I know there will be tens to hundreds of these kinds of issues where the open, flexible, inviting approach produces something more useful than the controlled approach. Even FroYo tabs have some of those advantages.

[EDIT:] And I didn’t answer your question on the Cathedral… Honeycomb is a much bigger project than the Linux kernel or anything else that Raymond considered. Honeycomb is a big enough addition that it is itself, a huge “new” project. Google has published APIs that are, yet again, far more flexible and accommodating than Apple iOS equivalents. That’s an important element of big picture open as well.

You know, in the open source process, there is absolutely nothing wrong with having a customer and giving that customer benefits of access to new source not afforded to everyone, usually an exclusive period. Google has done that with Gingerbread (Nexus S), so it’s not even out of character yet for Google.

paikinho

BH.

I think the Android OS has acquitted itself well. It is very versatile and has become a big player in a short amount of time. I think this growth will remain steep until perhaps it has 60% or more of the smartphone market. Beyond that I don’t know what will happen.

I don’t see the commercial as particularly smug, but it does have a bling thing… which demonstrates the product effectively. I don’t think it shows what people would do with it so much as it says “You really need to have one of these!”
Hehehehe.. an SNL sketch would be awesome!!! hahahaha. The smug angle would be perfect.

I still think the story will remain somewhat different in the tablet market because of the lack of subsidization. People just won’t want to pay for a 600 dollar device or 800 dollar device out of pocket. The market is kind of limited. At the current price point, most folks who are going to spend their out of pocket money will more likely buy the trendy thing.

If you want bling you buy an iPad2. If you want functionality why not get a Netbook for 1/2 the cost with a much better feature set? I don’t think a 7” $300 dollar machine would fill the bill for me at least. If I was going that small I would just as soon use a phone with a great screen.

What is the advantage of widgets on the home screen? How are they different from the widgets in Dashboard? Can you give me some examples of what you are talking about and I will test it out on my live-android VM.

Other than the widget issue what are some of the other issues (10’s-100’s) you can see. Won’t the tablets be roughly comparable with slightly more bells and whistles on the Android variants and more of a range of options; iPads will be more polished and smoother because of better top to bottom integration.

Apps in the future will be a wash I think as more Android apps are created.
Are you saying that the android is a bigger pleasure to design for because of open-ness? Isn’t that one of the problems with Android as well? I have read a few articles where developers found iOS better than android. I can’t remember if they were talking about fragmentation being a problem or if the dev-tools were better. Any insight you have would be welcome.

As far as the Subject of this thread. I think I would still be very up on AAPL. This summer’s pending iPhone 5 release will bring lots of profits to AAPL and I don’t think serious investors need to be too worried. Apple has been on such a huge upward spiral based on their profits and I don’t think those are about to go away. In fact over the next year I see them only escalating as the world economy heats up.

Dan Davis

I think you vastly overestimate Android.  Yes, in terms of phones sold, it is gaining market share. 

The Android ecosystem, however, is totally incapable of supporting professional developers.  I know this as a professional in IT For 20 years.  This platform (Android) is currently a fragmented hodgepodge of platforms and add-ons with related instabilities and incompatibilities.  It is a nightmare for anyone to support, and a mess for any normal user who wants their apps to just work.

The result is poor applications, poor support, and apathetic users.

See article here:
http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/21/861-5-percent-growth-android-puny/

“Despite 861.5 Percent Growth, Android Market Revenues Remain Puny”


According to this, the Android market total revenue for 2010 was 102 million. 

Apple App Store revenue was 1.7 billion, or 1,700 million. Apple did significantly more in one month than Android did all year.

82.7% of 2010 app store revenue when combined Blackberry, Apple, Android, and Nokia/Symbian was collected at the Apple App store.

So, going back to your premise, if you have a market where 25% of the deployments spend 82.7% of the money for apps

—->  Where do you put your development efforts?

—->  What does this mean for the future, given your premise that users and the market will follow the applications?

Clearly Apple is where the money is for developers.  Plus, you get a stable predictable platform, and far fewer support woes and expenses.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Dan,

You’ve obviously never developed desktop PC software for either Mac, Windows, or Linux if you see “fragmentation” on Android as anything you have to worry about it practice. On Android, the “fragmented” part is pretty explicit. Pick an API level, code to it, use the minimum that you require. Many if not most run of the mill Internet access apps you’d like to write can be coded to the 1.6 API level without losing anything. Developers new to the store find this out again and again when users on older devices ask for support, the developer recompiles, and presto, support. Though it mostly happens at the 2.1 level these days.

So, going back to your premise, if you have a market where 25% of the deployments spend 82.7% of the money for apps

This is an incorrect premise, because there is advertising, in-app purchases, alternate stores, etc.. Gameloft, for example, severely bucked the app store trend, making their best titles available on their own web site for Android side-loading. And while the App Store took in $1.7B, that represented less than $8K per paid app in 2010, an average that shrunk from 2009. If you’re on the tall side of the long tail, there’s a business. For most developers, app sales in Apple’s App Store alone are not a business or even a sizable chunk.

Even the MAS is a mixed bag. I certainly won’t play there, because I value interaction with my customers. Apple precludes that in the name of “privacy”.

RonMacGuy

Hey Dan, most of us agree with your comments.  Only one here seems to be “smart” enough to manage the fragmented world of android.  Forget that most of the rest of the world criticizes android for its fragmentation… The rest of the world is obviously wrong.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Hey Ron, can you explain to me how software that I just released which was developed on a MBP with 10.5 runs on all sorts of Macs PPC and Intel 10.4, 10.5, and 10.6? How does it work on different sized screens, different Internet interfaces, etc.?

Bonus points if you can then explain how the Windows version runs on XP, Vista, and 7 from a myriad of manufacturers.

Being able to answer these questions correctly would give you some qualification to weigh in on the much smaller issue of Android “fragmentation”.

RonMacGuy

Same lame, boring garbage, Bosco.

Frankly, I don’t care about the software you just released. Anytime anyone says anything about android fragmentation, you crap all over it.

Look at this article from today: “87% of Android developers think fragmentation is a problem, survey finds” is the title. Are there ways to code software so it works on any platform out there? Sure. But, is android fragmentation a problem? Well, 87% of android developers think so. It just amazes me that you still stick to your guns on this one. You are so wrong. But thanks for the laugh, jester!! You do your job well.

android fragmentation is a problem

MacFrogger

@Ron: Let Bosco speak - no need to insult him.  This has actually been one of the more civil threads here, and one actually worth reading.  Heck, I’m even learning something!  Thanks for keeping it civil!

RonMacGuy

I am sorry, MacFrogger. You are right. But Bosco did basically tell Dan (an IT professional of 20 years) that he doesn’t know what he is talking about, and then told me I was not qualified to weigh in. Let the record show that he insulted both of us first. Maybe not in as childish a way as I insulted him, but he did start it!!

My qualification is that I can read where developers themselves are stating that android fragmentation is a serious problem. You don’t have to be a developer to see this.

MacFrogger

@Ron: For sure Bosco is not a saint…but did you notice how (overall) this thread was mostly civil?  I think Bosco noticed too, and while overall there were still a few digs here and there, even he was more civil than usual. 

I’ve been a long time reader; finally registered to comment after the Japan earthquake.  You’re a class act Ron!  Cheers!

paikinho

Nice software Bosco, keep churning it out man! Anything you do for your mom .... you can be sure there are lots of other people with mom’s who will need such software. ;-D

———-
A better indication of the cracks in the open-ness of the Android system is Google making licensees sign a non-fragmentation clause. It is a strong indication of trying to get control over the Open Standards Beast.

Additionally…

“The article also suggests that Google may have tried to delay the release of Verizon Wireless Android devices that ship with the Bing experience as the default.” Triggering complaints to the justice department.

Nothing exceptional in all of this, but it just doesn’t speak well of a blissful open-standards, free-spirit, creativeness-rules ecosystem. BH is always arguing that this free open system will win over the walled garden, but Google isn’t a free open system. It is still controlled by a Corporation looking to leverage what it is doing to make money. Altruism is good, but it doesn’t pay the bills. Google enticed licensees with the carrot of a free open system that everyone could use and modify. Now comes the licenser stick of do it my way.

All of the manufacturers are still dependent on Google for the development of the OS and are dependent on Google for the pace and direction of the development. Nothing exceptional about it, but just business as usual.

MacFrogger

@paikinho:

Nice software Bosco, keep churning it out man! Anything you do for your mom .... you can be sure there are lots of other people with mom?s who will need such software. ;-D

That’s even dripping in niceness!  wink

paikinho

I think it is great that anyone is developing things to make peoples lives better. Especially when one does it for ones mom. Very cool. Should always wish for success of anyone doing good things for other people.

RonMacGuy

You?re a class act Ron!? Cheers!

Thanks, MacFrogger!! I try to be, but fail on many occasions (obviously). Welcome to posting on MacObserver!! And may God have mercy on your soul!!


grin

MacFrogger

Amen!  I totally agree with you…

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

@paikinho: You’ll never catch me arguing for “open” anything from an altruistic standpoint. There are efficiencies to be gained from the discipline of more open product processes. And there are unexpected gains to be made from more people having some real ownership in a product.

As to my latest gadget… Probably the coolest thing was getting an email from a 78 year old guy asking how to add his 20 Twitter followers automatically the morning after it went out. A couple emails back and forth, and I realized that I hadn’t accounted for his Twitter usage scenario and that it fit the kinds of people I wanted to help. He’s getting his import feature on April 10, maybe earlier. Intermediation invariably takes those kinds of interactions away.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

@paikinho: You’ll never catch me arguing for “open” anything from an altruistic standpoint. There are efficiencies to be gained from the discipline of more open product processes. And there are unexpected gains to be made from more people having some real ownership in a product.

As to my latest gadget… Probably the coolest thing was getting an email from a 78 year old guy asking how to add his 20 Twitter followers automatically the morning after it went out. A couple emails back and forth, and I realized that I hadn’t accounted for his Twitter usage scenario and that it fit the kinds of people I wanted to help. He’s getting his import feature on April 10, maybe earlier. Intermediation invariably takes those kinds of interactions away.

@Ron: I gave you an opportunity to demonstrate that you had an informed, intelligent opinion about the mechanisms that lead to “fragmentation”. You took that as an insult. Whatever. I know plenty of developers who are quite competent at the levels of abstraction where they develop, but treat layers underneath as voodoo rather than make an effort to understand them or even assume that they are understandable. So a survey result like that doesn’t surprise me. If I were a pollster, I’m sure I could push an entirely different result by pushing relevant examples supporting my own thesis.

paikinho

BH

Well altruism is a major driving force of the Open Source movement although you may be view it differently. Open Source is certainly one of the most powerful forces in computing and will continue to be so. It is really a revolution. And Open Source can achieve great things in many standard ways and in unexpected ways as well. I think it’s full power is yet to be achieved.


I hope the Open Source movement can maintain this status given the entrenched forces aligned against it are formidable. Seems like some would like to create a fortress around open source to immobilize it by patenting and copywriting everything know to man.

Can’t beat it by making better software, but can beat it through legal maneuvering perhaps.

———
Great customer service story you have and well done! I am experiencing the same thing with the developer of Jaikoz. Really top notch program and top notch responsiveness to the users of his software. If you need a really great Audio Tagger, I can recommend Jaikoz. I have a pretty esoteric collection of about 1500 albums and it has been able to achieve nearly a 90% accuracy in re-tagging my collection even with no tags to begin with.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Well, there is certainly an altruistic wing of the open source fortress. Before I had a good understanding of the relative value of people and source code, the altruistic advocates were a giant hurdle to me seeing that relative value. Those people are beyond annoying and, like I said, you won’t see me making those arguments. But there are plenty of angles from which to approach open source and open systems that are consistent with making money by providing distinguishing value. When you see companies working with open source, chance are, they’ve got an angle. And that’s not a bad thing at all. That’s incentive to share and push things forward.

paikinho

I call the altruistic ones the purists or originators. They were the guys that proselytized and got me into Linux back in the Slackware 2.0 days when it took 3 days to get it on my old system and get everything working.

Times have changed. Linux has changed, open source has changed.

Look at Redhat for example. I stuffed that onto my system at version 4.0 and there was no commercial aspect to Redhat at that point. I think they took a beating by the purists who thought they sold out by trying to monetize it at the time, but look where they are now. The largest open source company in the world.

I agree there is nothing wrong with trying to make some scratch off of your efforts as well as help the community. Like you said, it pushes things forward.

RonMacGuy

You took that as an insult.

No Bosco, you meant it as an insult, but I don’t take it as an insult. As I have said before, I am not insulted as I don’t value most of what you say.

Just answer a simple Yes/No question for me, if you are able. Is there an android fragmentation problem?  Yes or no?

I am not asking if it is a manageable problem or not. I am not asking if there are workarounds for it. I am asking if there is a fragmentation problem with android. I just want to hear you admit it!! Please? Pretty please?

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Maybe you should change your name to “RonSensitiveGuy”. I challenged you to defend the underlying assumptions of your position, and you accused me of insulting you. Well, stock up on Kevlar underwear, because these “insults” as you call them are going to continue to fly right at you so long as you come in with unfounded assertions.

That you want a “simple Yes/No” answer indicates how little you understand about what “fragmentation” is. There, another insult apparently. Anyone keeping track? Anyone standing by to offer the insulted victim a hug?

1. Is “fragmentation” the fact that many Android phone users do not have access to the latest version of the Android OS? If that’s how you’re defining “fragmentation”, then it is what it is. What are the consequences of that? That Android phones only past 3:2 unit sales over iPhone at this point rather than 2:1?

2. Is “fragmentation” a problem of software availability to Android customers? Well, 2/3 of the installed base can run Flash apps. 90% can run a good 90% of all apps once developers set their API level appropriately, which is typically a very quick process with popular apps that hit the AM.

3. Is “fragmentation” different widget sets and home screen apps, like HTC Sense or Moto Blur? You can download and purchase a myriad of nice home screen apps to replace your home screen on Android. I currently like Launcher Pro Plus. And I’m big fan of the highly tinkerable and sharable “Make your Clock”. Thousands of users customizing and sharing clock widgets!! Point is, my N1 home screen is close to unrecognizable to a stock Gbread user, just as Sense and Blur are.

As an aside… WWDC 2002, Steve Jobs in his keynote actually mentioned how Apple hoped that developers would create Finder replacements. Would that cause desktop fragmentation? Just an aside…

4. Does “fragmentation” increase the testing loads for software developers? Mostly no. See TweetDeck’s famous posting highlighting the diversity of the ecosystem. Android people welcome diversity, BTW. Issues that do come up where software doesn’t work with a phone are more often than not a problem with how the software used portions of the API. The “problematic phone” illuminates a bug in the application that other testing failed to illuminate.

5. One common “fragmentation issue” that is cited is varying screen sizes. Android apps have had to explicitly support multiple screen sizes since around 1.6. There are two approaches that have been used. One is to create static layouts for each popular screen size. As the screen size space exploded, these apps would run on a portion (mostly vertical) of a device’s screen. The other approach has been for the app to figure out the screen size, and then lay out its controls intelligently. It’s not more complex than what desktop apps do as you resize a window. And guess what? When Android tablets like Galaxy Tab and ViewSonic tablet started to appear running 2.1 or 2.2, lots of popular software already knew how to take advantage of the real estate. K-9 Mail, a very popular and very refined mail client for Android (free at AM, open source based way back on Google’s native client) just works on these tabs, no need for “scaling” or a complete rewrite.

So you know what Ron? I don’t think you’ve been or Gruber has been particularly thoughtful on the “fragmentation” issue. I don’t think you’ve tried to find relevant contexts to gather information. And I don’t think you’ve thought about your strong implication that the ultimate consequence of defragmenting would simply be more rapid marginalization of iOS. Sorry for insulting you with my criticism of your evaluation.

Please point out a real world negative consequence of what you call “fragmentation”. We can then look at what the real downsides of that are.

vpndev

Bottom line, guys, is that if DEVELOPERS think there’s a problem, then there is a problem.

Maybe it’s in their heads or maybe it’s fragmentation or maybe something else. But if 87% of the Android developers say there’s a problem, don’t try to make-believe there isn’t a problem.

We can argue about exactly what the problem *is* and that’s a different discussion.

dan farrand

Lots of desperate hope and wrath riding on android….

Regardless, apple will sell millions of iOS devices and make billions in profit.  Google will sell lots of advertising and make billions in profit…

Apple will do what they always do….follow their own plans and methods. 

They don’t and won’t care that google is the new msft of non-apple mobile devices…in fact their response is likely to be to work even tighter integration between their hardware and their software

vpndev

Just looking at new form factors and price points that are coming online this month, I expect Android Honeycomb to do the same in tablets.

That may be. But a report quoting Deutsche Bank says that the Xoom (the only Honeycomb tablet) has sold only 100K units since launch in February.

That doesn’t match ip with the “Android tsunami” story we’ve been hearing so maybe it’s time for a reality check. Are these numbers correct? If not, why not, and what numbers are better/correct ??

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

Hey RonMacGuy and vpndev…

Andy Rubin—who is basically the mastermind behind Android going from totally obscure nerd obsession before November 2009 to beating iPhone in sales by more than 3:2 today—weighed in on open/closed and some other issues today. Do pay attention to how he addresses fragmentation and do notice that it’s exactly the point I made above, i.e. app compatibility.

Rubin is on record with several explicit promises in today’s post. Write them down and place check marks next to them in the coming months.

vpndev

Fair comment - things are evolving.

But we’ve been hearing this “Android tsunami” thing for a while now and it’s getting old.

You didn’t address that part. If Xoom - with latest and greatest Honeycomb - has sold only 100K since February while iPad2 did 300K on launch day, then which tsunami is which?

These are Deutsche Bank’s estimates and might not be accurate, but no-one has refuted them. If no-one does then we’ll take them as correct. The report title is “Motorola Xoom A Flop, Just 100,000 Sold So Far” so that will give you a sense of their evaluation.

Methinks this is a hot-air tsunami.

Bosco (Brad Hutchings)

vpndev… Before summer is over, we’ll see at least 20 Honeycomb tabs from at least 10 manufacturers hit the market. The manufacturers and Google will learn very quickly. Don’t underestimate the value of this process in the market share that Google will eventually gain. But the fact that it’s tough to stick numbers on the process will lead analysts to underestimate because they stick numbers on things.

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