Overall estimates for iPhone sales, arguably Apple’s most important metric, range from 26 to 44 million. However, when analysts are grouped by experience and track record, new numbers begin to emerge.
For Wall Street analysts, the average prediction is 30.5 million, representing a year-over-year increase in iPhone sales of 63.8%. For “independent analysts” — bloggers, Apple enthusiasts, and individual investors — the average is 37.2 million, an increase of 99.9% year-over-year.
Chart by The Mac Observer from CNNMoney data.
However, when looking at the top six analysts with the most accurate estimates over the past five quarters, the number settles at 35.1 million, an 88.5% increase over the same time last year.
All but independent analysts predict a decrease in sales from the previous quarter, which isn’t surprising considering the lack of product launches this quarter, but Apple has been known to surprise the market in the past and we won’t know the true number until next Tuesday, the 24th.
The Mac Observer will offer its usual live coverage of Apple’s earnings report call next week, so be sure to check in to see what Apple reports.