Particle Debris (week ending 12/11) Microsoft Should Just Get Out of Dodge

| Particle Debris

Have you ever wondered when it might be inappropriate to use your iPhone? And I don't mean when driving. For example, some scenarios might have you unexpectedly sleeping on the couch tonight. The Edible Apple has provided a flow chart to guide you supergeeks through the process.

What did Steve Jobs think about the Segway (originally code named Ginger) marketing plan back in 2001? Again, the Edible Apple excerpts the chronicle of the Segway's development and documented, again, how Mr. Jobs' business acumen swayed the marketing approach for that breakthrough product.

After taking on Calendars and screen savers, Charles Moore over at Applelinks.com has posted his next installment of "The Festive Mac 2009." This time its Christmas Card and Greeting Creation apps for the Mac. Most of these apps are far better than you might have imagined and are easily overlooked -- except for Mr. Moore's diligent cataloging.

I've mentioned the Archos tablet PC and the Joojoo before. Here's an article on the Archos and a video demonstration of the Joojoo that will whet your appetite for the real thing when Apple does it right in 2010. (There are some last minute additions at the end of this article.)

Dan Frommer at Silicon Alley Insider has continued to predict that there will be an iPhone on Verizon's network next year. I'm on record as agreeing with him. Apple doesn't make much of a splash partnering with T-Mobile. Recently Thomas Weisel analyst Doug Reid pointed to the apparent friction between Apple and Verizon and argued that T-Mobile would be a much better partner for Apple. Right after that story got out, Apple stock (AAPL) tanked considerably. That's because investors, who would sell their mothers to al Qaeda based on a hot tip from a Chinese fortune cookie, feared that Apple wouldn't sell as many phones in 2010 with T-Mobile (in third place) as with Verizon.

Never mind the fact that it's all speculation. By contrast, what's not speculation is the phenomenal Christmas quarter Apple is going to have this year. Oh, well. Maybe some of those investors were just ready to take some profit for the holidays.

What do I base my Verizon prediction on? Most writers and analysts look at the differences in corporate philosophy, how rudely Verizon treats its hardware suppliers, and the current friction brought on by Verizon's "There's a Map For That" campaign and see no way they can work together. (For example, did you know that Verizon's Droid is made by Motorola? Verizon doesn't think you need to know that.)

My take is that there's too much money to be made by both companies to ignore the potential. Verizon would like to stick it to AT&T and leverage the iPhone against them. Apple would like to double its iPhone sales. There's enough money to be made there that I'm betting they'll work out some kind of deal. Remember, greed conquers all.

Finally, Mark Anderson who writes a widely respected industry newsletter, Strategic News Service, recently hosted a dinner in New York and provided his forecasts for 2010. According to the New York Times, Mr. Anderson said, "Except for gaming, it is ‘game over’ for Microsoft in the consumer market. It’s time to declare Microsoft a loser in phones. Just get out of Dodge."

He went on to tell NYT reporter Steve Lohr, "Walk the halls at Microsoft and you can see it is not a place that gets consumers."

That may be why Windows Mobile 6.5 (which has no relationship to the Windows operating system, by the way) fell on its face. Microsoft has said, as I recall, just wait for Windows Mobile 7 in 2010. But I've seen lots of articles that suggest Microsaoft has long since run out of time. Mr. Anderson's observations confirm that verdict.

This just in on Friday.

Alleged video of Apple tablet in action.  The choice of app seems strange.  Decide for yourself.

Dan Frommer had a chance to play with the JooJoo.  It just made him want an Apple tablet.

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4 Comments

geoduck

“just wait for Windows Mobile 7”
Why do I think I’ve heard that before?

EDIT: Hot @%!!@*&.I can edit comments again w00t!!

cb

...greed conquers all.

Given all the other blah-blah that goes on in all directions about what will or won’t happen, I think you’ve just presented in three words the one most cogent factor in most of those topics.

Seriously, it’s true, and still it gave me a good little laugh to help me get out into the commute. Thanks.

coaten

“Greed conquers all” should be the touchstone for new enterprises trying to cut a deal. Don’t focus on what’s in it for you. Tell them what’s in it for THEM.

UrbanBard

The only problem I see about Apple’s iPhone going to Verizon is “When?”

My understanding is that the technology is not available yet and the networks aren’t built to handle the traffic.

I suggest that Apple is likely to wait until the G4 chips become available and that won’t be for two to three years. Then, there will be lousy ISP services until the networks are built up.

I see no “magic bullet” or quick fix. There are excellent reasons for why mobile service in America is lousy and those reasons won’t be overcome over-night.

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