The Year When Apple’s Tablet Means Good Enough Isn’t

| Hidden Dimensions

“Some men are born mediocre, some men achieve mediocrity, and some men have mediocrity thrust upon them.”

--Joseph Heller

Desktop computer systems have some unique characteristics that make them susceptible to the "Good Enough" syndrome. However, the always on-the-go iPhone and all but official Apple Tablet have a different usage profile. That means good enough no longer works, and that will put Microsoft even further behind.

Consider the following chart that compares a conventional PC to a possible Apple tablet.

PC vs Tablet

What jumps out at me in this chart is that refinement, user interface, user experience, and low maintenance will be of paramount importance. A system dedicated to the user, always available on demand, must reach yet a higher level of excellence, even more so than Mac OS X, let alone Windows.

This analogue isn't exact, but it's as close as I can come. The other day, I needed to do a test with Windows 7. I fired up Parallels, and then Windows 7. Because I had done an update to Parallels (5.9.9308), my Parallels Tools were out of date. After that, the Kaspersky antivirus manager wanted some time. Finally, there were Windows 7 updates to install. It was about an hour before I could do my test.

It's important to note that some of this was because I don't use Windows 7 daily. Also, Parallels makes a fine product. So it's not a perfect analogy. But can you imagine if my test had been to make a phone call, not just test a zip file extraction?

Just like the iPhone, and because it's likely to run a variant of the iPhone OS, the Apple tablet has to meet certain availability requirements. That means that there may be a change to the way updates are applied.

With only about 90 iPhone apps on my 3GS, I am constantly doing updates. No sooner than I get through a set of 10 or 12 in the App Store app, a few days later, it starts all over again. A tablet, with much greater storage, will have to have a more automatic way of doing these updates.

Getting Serious About Usability and Joy

The real point I want to get to, however, is based on all the questions we've been asking about regarding the usability of the tablet. For example, the keyboard and display will, presumably (but not assuredly) be in the same plane. With a notebook's hinge, one can have the keyboard and display in different planes. That accounts for human ergonomics. How Apple solves this will be interesting to watch, but it will be an elegant solution.

Next, a 10-inch screen is a move backwards compared to the ever increasing display sizes on the desktop. While we accept some limitations on the iPhone, that 10-inch range is the never-never land between iPhone limitations and abundant real estate with our 15- and 17-inch MacBook Pros. Making that display work for us, without a mouse, is going to require some creativity and excellence. One reason why the old UMPCs failed was because the Windows metaphor was crammed into a 7-inch display, making for a poor experience.

What I'm driving at here is that nothing short of excellence is going to be required to make the Apple tablet fun and usable. Business as usual by the competitors with any Microsoft Windows variant isn't going to cut it. So if Microsoft believes that they can work with Hewlett Packard to build a new, competitive tablet that has Windows 7 and a stylus, they are, I believe, sadly mistaken. All the user interface issues we've been fretting about need to be solved, or Mr. Jobs won't authorize the Apple tablet to ship.

The corollary of that is that Apple is dragging the mobile industry into new areas where the old mentality of "good enough" just doesn't work anymore. You know the drill. A competing executive figures that his company can't compete against Apple in all the details of execution. His company doesn't have the engineering talent or development tools required. So the typical plan is to roll out something that looks like the Apple tablet, but is, of course, slightly less expensive. He's planning to steal the low end of the market. All those customers out there who are accustomed to paying less and getting something that's "good enough" will be staggeringly disappointed. It won't just be, "Hey, I can live with a PC instead of a Mac." Instead, it'll be, "this device doesn't solve any of the problems Apple solved."

I believe that once Apple figured out that they wanted to build a tablet and how it would fit into the product line, Mr. Jobs started thinking about how excellence in implementation could put Apple far ahead of the competition -- and truly reveal a product separation that was never quite so obvious to everyone in the PC vs. Mac wars of old. Twenty five years of incestuous copying did bring a certain amount of convergence between Windows and Mac that can mask the advantages of Mac OS X for some. That's yet another reason for Apple to move to custom ARM CPUs for their mobile devices. The specialized, proprietary, low power processors from PA Semi are also part of the plan -- they allow Apple to implement in silicon functionality that Intel may not have conceded. Constraints that the Intel Atom places on the competitors won't be experienced by Apple.

The final result is that for years and years, PC users drifted along with the idea that buying something that was good enough was a satisfactory decision. The Apple tablet will reveal that, in 2010, simply good enough isn't anymore.

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Comments

achaar

John,

Excellent!  I think you hit the nail on the head.  All we need to do now is wait for Apple to release the thing!  I don’t know if there is any way for the tablet live up to the hype.  Just like the iPhone, it will be ok in some areas, not so good in others, and surprising in ways most never thought about.  A game changer.  At least my stock portfolio hopes so.

CES was disappointing in that so many tablets were shown/talked about, but with very little innovation.

AceNet-Alan

John, your last paragraph alludes to another reality of the computer industry: they are faced with customers who ultimately want more while paying less (i.e. more bang for their buck). Does this make American consumers “cheap bastards”? Not necessarily; we initially believe in getting more for less, and discount the quality of the product. Suddenly, when the industry begins to tighten their belts, the consumer either settles with less, or begins to consider the long term value of their purchases, and work to stretch the value of their money.

With Apple products, longtime and new consumers are no doubt making their purchases because of the name of the product, but also see the long-term values associated in buying into the Apple product line. These values include saving themselves from insanity d/t OS problems, viruses, having optimized applications that seamlessly play well with others, and so on. Apple consistently works to find and exploit those price points where most consumers are willing to drop the cash, and continue to gain market share because their tight integration allows them to not be easily swayed to make quality and quantity concessions like other computer manufacturers.

TechGuy1001001

How can you possibly make comparisons with something that has not even know to exist, never mind been released yet? Also, when you say “Classic PC” do you mean like the iMac, which is a Personal Computer or “PC”
I hope if there is a new Mac tablet it comes with an app that helps certain “journalists” remove their breain tanks from their backsides.

FlipFriddle

I hope you’re right that “good enough” isn’t any more. That concept is killing entire industries. I just feel that no matter what Apple comes out with, it won’t live up to the hype; it’s getting to almost mythic proportions. It’s almost like everyone knows that Apple is the only company left that bothers to try and everyone is desperate for them to save them from the growing mediocrity of the tech industry. I could almost hear the thud from CES when Blamer showed the HP-tablet-thingie. Ugh.
I hope we can relax until they release something though. It’s getting to be too much.

wab95

John:

Loved the article, particularly the chart. Alan A. raises a good point about consumer behaviour. I think FlipFriddle provides an insight into the cost/quality dialectic and habitable zone where the tech consumer is migrating - people want to be saved from mediocrity and they are willing to pay good money for it. But it is more than that.

At the end of the day, it is not about the product but about the people. People aspire to be better than they are at the moment, and value the tools that will enable them to do so (witness the continued robustness of the self-help industry despite the sluggish economy). It is nearly impossible to achieve excellence with tools that are uninspiring. My daughter will practice longer on a Steinway piano than on a cheap knock off because the melodic feedback rewards her and reflects the excellence in music to which she aspires. By comparison, the flat tinny sound of the knock off is almost a negative reward.

A grunt in a cubicle working for someone else’s ambitions is content to use whatever he/she is given because the work isn’t even about them - but about someone or something else. But for practically anyone else, the tools matter. Hence, the continued growth in Apple’s market share - with an implicit caveat - they must continue to address the needs of creative people.

aardman

Mr. Martellaro, in all the tech blogs, online mags, newsites, etc. that I have read, I come back to only two writers who to my mind are the most knowledgeable, most intelligent and most insightful observers of the tech industry:  You and that Dilger fellow.  Everyone else pales in comparison.  Keep on sharing your thoughts.

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