UBS Analyst Raises iPad Estimates for Fiscal 2010 & 2011

| Apple Stock Watch

Following Apple’s announcement Tuesday morning that the company has sold three million iPads, UBS analyst Maynard Um raised his estimates for fiscal 2010 and 2011 in a research note obtained by The Mac Observer. The analyst also raised his profit and revenue estimates for the company for the June quarter, fiscal 2010, and fiscal 2011.

The analyst began his research note by breaking down Apple’s rate of iPad sales. “During the first 28 days Apple sold ~35k iPads/day,” he wrote. “The following 31 days it sold ~32k iPads/day and in the last 21 days the company has accelerated sales to 47k iPads/day.”

That’s a marked increase, and Mr. Um attributed it to both improved supply and the expansion of the iPad into new international markets. He believes that if Apple can maintain current sales levels, the company will sell between 4.8 million and 6.8 million iPads in fiscal 2010, which ends with the September quarter, and between 9.7 million and 13.7 million during fiscal 2011.

Since he also believes that every 100,000 iPads sold translates into a US$.01 in earnings per share (EPS), the analyst also raised his revenue and earnings estimates. He increased the current quarter’s estimates from $14.5 billion in revenue and $2.91 EPS to $14.8 billion in revenue and $3.01 EPS.

His fiscal 2010 estimates would put Apple above $60 billion for the first time with revenue of $60.3 billion and EPS of $13.55, up from $59.1 billion in revenue and $13.41 EPS. He raised fiscal 2011 estimates from $64.8 billion in revenue and EPS of $14.83 to $67.2 billion and $15.20, respectively.

Mr. Um maintained his $320 price target for AAPL, and his “Buy” rating on the stock.

Shares in Apple traded higher Tuesday, closing at $273.85, a gain of $3.68 (+1.36%), on moderate volume of 25.6 million shares trading hands.

*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.  

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