Apple Death Knell Counter

Last Updated: Mar 21, 2014

Apple has been declared dead 64 times since April, 1995.

The Apple Death Knell Counter (ADKC) is a collection of death pronouncements for Apple throughout the years. Issued by journalists, analysts, pundits, business executives, and the like, there have been innumerable "Apple is dead," "Apple will soon be dead," and "Apple is dead if they don't do this or that" statements issued by all sorts of people who have been proven time and again to be wrong.

The purpose of the Death Knell Counter is to collect these statements for posterity's sake, so that as Apple continues to thrive and prosper, we can remember them. Below, you will find a list of updates, followed by our original posting, including our rules for inclusion in the Counter, and then the Death Knells themselves.

It happens every few weeks: Someone new jumps on the bandwagon loudly proclaiming that Apple will soon be dead. It's been happening since the early 1980s, and still Apple, and its doom sayers, keep chugging along. We decided that it would be interesting to collect these stories, prognostications, predictions, and premature eulogies in a sort of testimonial of buffoonery, and we are calling it The Apple Death Knell Counter.

We shall keep a running total of the number of times that Apple has been declared dead or dying, with links to each one (whenever possible), the date it was published, and the person who so blithely set upon the path of being utterly wrong. With luck, we'll eventually get back to the primordial Death Knell, whose peals have rung on long past their normal life spans.

Our Criteria:

  • We are looking for published predictions and statements of Apple's demise from pundits, journalists, analysts, and editorialists. These statements can be in the form of quotes, especially from analysts, or entire pieces dedicated to Apple's imminent death.
  • Pieces where the author wishes, encourages, or hopes that Apple would change some aspect of its business are not eligible for listing, but pieces saying that Apple will shut its doors unless it changes some aspect of its business probably will be included. For instance: "Apple needs to move to x86 in order to increase market share," would not be a statement of doom. "Apple will be having a fire sale on office furniture to pay its bills in 6 months unless it makes the move to Intel now," is an outright prediction of death.
  • Articles where Apple is referred to as "beleaguered" are not necessarily eligible, and in fact, the vast majority of such references are simply colorfully negative descriptions that do not qualify as an Apple Death Knell.
  • We'll make the decision on what is included in the list on a case by case basis, and the criteria may be refined as we go.

We ask you to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on any new, or old, death predictions, be it a link, or a scan from an old magazine, or other information. We'll then add it to the counter, duly noted in chronological order, on this page. We will also be adding a Hall of Buffoonery for those with the most dead-Apple predictions.

Apple Death Knells

By Trip Chowdhry, Published in CNBC

Relevant Quote:

They [Apple] only have 60 days left to either come up with something or they will disappear. It will take years for Apple's $130 billion in cash to vanish, but it will become an irrelevant company ... it will become a zombie, if they don't come up with an iWatch.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #63

Why Apple is a dead company walking - Jul 23, 2013

By Dave Logan, Published in CBS News

Relevant Quote:

Apple appears to have a few years of its magic left. It will use this scarce resource to make its existing products better, faster, cheaper, with longer battery life, support for more displays and so on. It will introduce new products based on existing ideas.

But the days when Apple would imagine the unimagined, led by its core values, and bridge the worlds of technology and aesthetics by doing what no one had ever thought of before -- that's the Apple of the past.

Apple Death Knell #62

There’s No Question Now: Apple is Dead - Jun 27, 2013

By Rocco Pendola, Published in TheStreet.com

Relevant Quote:

This is not only a rebuke of Steve Jobs and the Apple way -- the very essence of what made Apple the world's greatest company -- it's a perverse validation of Wall Street and the stock market. As if Wall Street should play any role whatsoever in determining how much anybody from the CEO to the cleaning crew at Apple makes.

[...]

But, yeah, it's a brilliant and ballsy move by Cook and the Board to, yet again, give the nod to external and irrational forces such as the stock market. These guys are recklessly and multi-handedly desecrating Steve Jobs's legacy. This is just another example of Apple losing its way, operating like every other company.

By Dan Crow, Published in The Guardian

Relevant Quote:

The story of Apple Incorporated is far from over. It is the most valuable company in the world, by a large margin. Apple produces a range of exceptional and much loved products. It employs many of the most talented designers and engineers on the planet. But I think Apple has peaked and the story of the next few years will be one of a slow but real decline. [...] I think in hindsight, we will see that Apple's peak of creativity, innovation and leadership was early 2012.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #60

In a War of Attrition, Microsoft Will Beat Apple - Oct 31, 2012

By Charles Sizemore, Published in Forbes

Relevant Quote:

Apple launched the first offensive in the smartphone and tablet wars, but in a long-term war of attrition it is doomed to lose for the same reasons that it lost the original PC war.  Apple has always maintained a closed ecosystem and insists on making its own hardware and software.  Steve Jobs’ pigheadedness is the reason why it was the Wintel platform and not the Mac that came to dominate the desktop and laptop markets.

It’s all happening again.  Apple again jumped out to a huge lead, but it will lose the war in the end.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #59

The Apple Fever Has Broken - May 10, 2012

By Fred Hickey, Published in Forbes

Relevant Quote:

Only in hindsight (years later) will they know that Apple’s $600 billion valuation could not be sustained, that Apple is a consumer product company subject to the whims of consumers. That Apple sells commodity type products: phones, PCs and PC-type products (tablets) where margins could not possibly be sustained at current levels. That its biggest customers (carriers such as Verizon and AT&T) would gladly leap at the chance to sell a competitive product that offered higher margins (lower subsidies to Apple.) That Apple’s brilliant product designer and marketer, Steve Jobs, was irreplaceable. That shipping slightly better updated products (iPhone 5, 6, 7) would not bring the same explosive growth as the introduction of whole new product categories. That the so-called Apple TV (a TV!) might be a giant bomb, but that analysts had already built its success into their target price models. Note to the Appleholics: Apple has been trying to sell (unsuccessfully) a product called Apple TV since 2006.

I could go on, but I don’t need to.

 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #58

Apple = Sony - Apr 27, 2012

By George Colony, Published in Forrester

Relevant Quote:

When Steve Jobs departed, he took three things with him: 1) singular charismatic leadership that bound the company together and elicited extraordinary performance from its people; 2) the ability to take big risks, and 3) an unparalleled ability to envision and design products. Apple’s momentum will carry it for 24-48 months. But without the arrival of a new charismatic leader it will move from being a great company to being a good company, with a commensurate step down in revenue growth and product innovation. Like Sony (post Morita), Polaroid (post Land), Apple circa 1985 (post Jobs), and Disney (in the 20 years post Walt Disney), Apple will coast, and then decelerate. 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #57

Apple, Google Seen Stumbling In 2012; Amazon, IBM Up - Jan 02, 2012

By Brian Deagon, Published in Investor's Business Daily

Relevant Quote:

Apple will lose its cool factor. With the iPod, iPhone and iPad, Apple redefined markets and defined cool. But what’s left? The iPhone is boxy, flat and feeling stale. The Samsung Galaxy smartphone seems cooler. With Google’s Android platform now the fastest-growing mobile OS, Apple’s software advantage will diminish. Smartphones and tablets will become commodity items and Apple will be eaten by the collective Android gang. Apple’s next big hope is the TV market, a tough nut to crack and where Samsung is king. [Emphasis added]

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #56

Death Knell #56: Apple’s Closed System Doomed to Die - Jun 27, 2011

By Paul Hochman, Published in PocketLint

Relevant Quote:

“Apple’s in big trouble. They’re sitting on piles of cash, but they are sitting on a closed system. In biology, in history, a closed system never survives.”

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #55

Dell Says iPad Will Fail in Enterprise - Mar 30, 2011

By Andy Lark, Dell’s global head of marketing for large enterprises and public organizations, Published in CIO

Relevant Quote:

“I couldn’t be happier that Apple has created a market and built up enthusiasm but longer term, open, capable and affordable will win, not closed, high price and proprietary. [Apple has] done a really nice job, they’ve got a great product, but the challenge they’ve got is that already Android is outpacing them.”

Apple is great if you’ve got a lot of money and live on an island. It’s not so great if you have to exist in a diverse, open, connected enterprise; simple things become quite complex. [] We’ve taken a very considered approach to tablets, given that the vast majority of our business isn’t in the consumer space.”

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #54

Apple: Short Term Winner, Long Term Loser - Aug 27, 2010

By Fabrice Grinda, Published in BusinessInsider

Relevant Quote:

Android, with its relative openness, seems to be playing the role Windows played for the Mac. […] On the DOS, then Windows side, the constant competition between PC makers, processor makers, and software developers, while less elegant and functional at the beginning, given enough time led to a plethora of offerings and innovation that not only copied many of the Mac’s best features but extended them.[…] The combination of faster PCs with more software at lower prices eventually completely marginalized the Macintosh.

Steve Jobs seems to be repeating the same mistake all over again. The elegant integration between the iPhone, iTunes and the App Store is definitely a current source of comparative advantage. It is easier to offer a better user experience at the beginning when you limit the form factor and completely control the hardware and software. The iPhone 4 is clearly the best smartphone on the market. The apps in the Apple App Store are clearly the best apps on the market.

However, Apple’s insistence on having a single form factor, on being a premium player at a premium price point (to carriers at least), and its arbitrary decisions with regards to what apps make it in the App Store will eventually make Apple a niche player. Even if Apple keeps innovating and has the best phone on the market, it won’t matter.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #53

Hello, giant iPod Touch - Jan 29, 2010

By John C. Dvorak, Published in MarketWatch

Relevant Quote:

"Jobs himself is a tech maven constantly looking for nifty new developments that he can employ in Apple products. Apparently when it comes to tablet computing, this is the best he can do. Insanely great it is not. [...] The tablet market has only succeeded as a niche market over the years and it was hoped Apple would dream up some new paradigm to change all that. From what I've seen and heard, this won't be it."

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #52

Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive - Jan 13, 2007

By Matthew Lynn, Published in Bloomberg

Relevant Quote:

The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant. [...] Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #51

Linux vs. Windows Vista vs. Leopard - May 01, 2006

By Rob Enderle, Published in MacNewsWorld

Relevant Quote:

2008 will be a critical year for Apple, Microsoft, and the Linux contingent. If Apple can't significantly expand its presence by then in the PC market it is likely going to be finished with this segment. Its likely path in that case will be to focus more aggressively on the consumer electronics market it currently dominates.

Apple Death Knell #50

Apple faces second attack of the clones - Apr 03, 2006

By Alan Kohler, Published in The Age

Relevant Quote:

"Microsoft's software will power the new generation of phone/music players, and the business of selling digital songs and TV shows will open up. Google will probably run the most popular online store, but there will be thousands.

The iPod/iTunes system will move into a niche with Macintosh computers because Steve Jobs has again stuck with closed architecture and total control. This will happen quickly because mobile phones are being turned over about every year."

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #49

Five Reasons Why There Will Be No Macs in 2010 - Mar 08, 2006

By Chris Seibold, Published in AppleMatters

Relevant Quote:

"The Mac, and Apple, have been counted out more times than Gabby Jay. Unlike Super Punch Out’s resident tomato can, the Mac keeps getting up off the mat. Credit the people who love the platform, or OS X for the machine’s resilience, but don’t count on the Mac being there forever. The era of the all-in-one hardware and software solution has been gone for at least the last ten years, even though Apple hasn’t quite caught on yet. Here are five reasons why Apple will catch on and abandon Mac hardware by the start of the next decade."

Full Coverage by TMO

By Kevin Maney, Published in USA Today

Relevant Quote:

"Sometime in 2006, Steve Jobs will probably get hosed. That's not so much a prediction as it is playing the odds. Nobody in America gets such a long ride on the oh-we-sooooo-adore-you bandwagon."

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #47

Windows Vista: The Final Countdown Begins - Sep 20, 2005

By Rob Enderle, Published in TechNewsWorld

Relevant Quote:

"If Apple and the Linux community can't make the hard decisions needed to address this competitive threat the negative impact on both of them will cover a broad range and will be unavoidable."

[And]

"This suggests that 2006, at least after August, will be great time for buyers and sellers of PC hardware and that has to be a good thing for everyone -- except Apple." 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #46

Why Apple and folly go hand-in-glove - May 11, 2005

By Graeme Philipson, Published in The Age

Relevant Quote:

In the past few years the iPod and continued innovation of the Macintosh architecture have ensured Apple's survival where many - myself included - had predicted its demise. But if it continues its own march of folly, that demise will be inevitable. 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #45

Apple Will Dump Macs in Five Years - Dec 30, 2004

By Rob Enderle, Published in TechNewsWorld

Relevant Quote:

The consensus appears to be that within the next five years Apple will either move to a new processor or exit the PC business. That will not be a fun choice, but at least Steve Jobs will be able to play really cool Xbox games to take his mind off of it.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #44

12 Big Surprises for 2005 - Dec 30, 2004

By John D. Markman, Published in TheStreet.com

Relevant Quote:

Apple Computer releases two new handheld devices in an attempt to follow up its iPod mega-hit, but they fail to gain traction. iPods begin stacking up at electronics stores when it is discovered that, after a Christmas buying frenzy, there are now 2.7 iPods for every American over the age of 6. Apple turns to Philips Electronics for a bailout and is sold to the Netherlands-based consumer electronics giant for $80 a share.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #43

Apple Death Knell #43: Apple Must Change, Or Die - Sep 15, 2004

By Paul Thurrott, Published in Connected Home Magazine

Relevant Quote:

Apple's short-term success is very real and quite admirable, but the company's inability to see coming trends in video, subscription content, and interoperability suggests that Apple is repeating the mistakes of the past. In the 1980s, the Mac held an early lead over the PC but was quickly buried after the industry standardized on a common Microsoft technology. Today, that series of events is repeating itself, and online music services -- and to a greater degree, the digital delivery of all media types -- is very much at a nascent stage. If Apple doesn't change its ways, the company simply won't survive.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #42

Apple’s new iMac takes rear seat - Sep 02, 2004

By John C. Dvorak, Published in CBS Marketwatch

Relevant Quote:

Perhaps if the company took the plunge and followed the path of Sony with branded cameras, headphones, amplifiers and home theaters in a box it would be more interesting. But milking this one pricey and faddish device is going to ruin the company if it is going to be the center of attention, which it now seems to be. [Emphasis added]

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #41

Short takes: Week of 24 May - May 25, 2004

By Paul Thurrott, Published in ITnews

Relevant Quote:

And speaking of Apple Computer, everyone's favourite little OS imitator -- excuse me, innovator -- this week made an interesting patent bid that could have ramifications for Longhorn. Apple wants a patent for applying transparency to "information-bearing windows whose contents remain unchanged for a predetermined period of time." In other words, these unused windows fade away over time unless they're activated.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that Longhorn will feature translucent windows and various window-transparency effects, so this patent attempt could possibly affect Longhorn. Or not. Patent applications take years to culminate, and in the end Apple might not even be awarded a patent. More to the point, by the time Longhorn ships, Apple likely will have discontinued active computer OS development, anyway, so that the company can concentrate on the consumer-electronics market.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #40

Mac Death Match, Round Five: Chaffin vs. Enderle - May 13, 2004

By Rob Enderle, Published in MacNewsWorld

Relevant Quote:

Apple has about 24 months to get its act together and position itself for the post-Longhorn world of Linux and Windows. If it doesn't offer solutions that will play on those platforms the way iTunes currently does on Windows, it will probably become a footnote by the end of the decade.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #39

Why iPod can’t save Apple - Mar 17, 2004

By Stephen Gandel, Published in Money

Relevant Quote:

But behind the hype and buzz surrounding the iPod and Jobs, there are problems stewing at Apple. Apple sold just over 3 million computers in its last fiscal year, which ended in September -- 900,000 less than it sold in fiscal 1996, the year before Jobs returned. [...] Meanwhile, Apple's share of the worldwide personal-computer market has shrunk to 2 percent from 3.2 percent five years ago. [...] It's unclear what Jobs can do or plans to do to turn around Apple's fortunes -- he refused to talk to MONEY about its future. 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #38

How will Apple Grow? (archive link) - Mar 05, 2004

By Paul Thurrott, Published in Paul Thurrott's Internet Nexus

Relevant Quote:

There's no debate (indeed, Apple executives are still using the bogus 5 percent figure). Apple's market share is 1.88 percent today, and as your own math showed you, it will be 1.7 percent or lower in 2004. Why is this so hard for Mac advocates to understand? The Mac market is ending. Let's hope Apple has broader consumer electronics plans than just the iPod.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #37

The Death of Sun, Apple and Novell - Nov 24, 2003

By Rob Enderle Reporting On Panel At Comdex, Published in TechNewsWorld

Relevant Quote:

I also asked which companies would be dead. The panel agreed that it would be Apple, Sun and Novell. The panel also agreed that if it didn't run on the x86 architecture, it was likely gone. What was really interesting was that almost everyone I spoke with after this panel said that this x86 prediction was like predicting that the sun would rise in the morning -- in other words, that it was a given. Most participants felt that the future world of technology would be solidly based on standards and that anyone not using standards would be gone. 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #36

Apple Computer Could Run Out Of Steam - Nov 19, 2003

By a Banc of America Securities analyst, Published in Forbes

Relevant Quote:

Apple Computer "runs the risk of generating significant refresh sales to its installed base for the next couple of quarters, and then running out of steam once sales to the installed base are satisfied." The research firm said, "We don't think there is any more creative company in the world than Apple." It also added that Apple's fundamentals are "positive." But Banc of America initiated coverage of Apple at "neutral," saying it was concerned that G5 refresh sales will slow, iTunes won't contribute to the bottom line and iPod is not "the only game in town anymore."

Full Coverage by TMO

By Rob Enderle, Published in InternetWeek

Relevant Quote:

Apple will have some serious problems because the Apple hardware platform will not be able to create customer demand comparable to what Linux could do. To generate that kind of demand, Apple will need to either move to Intel, or get significant help from its hardware partner, IBM. IBM won't help broadly unless both the IBM PC business unit and IBM Microelectronics cooperate, and the PC company may not want to undercut its own sales of PC-based systems and they are strategically tied to Linux and Microsoft today.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #34

Your 99c belong to the RIAA - Steve Jobs - Nov 07, 2003

By Andrew Orlowski, Published in The Register

Relevant Quote:

While much of the received wisdom in both the music industries and technology industries see compulsory licenses in one form or another as inevitable, both Apple and RIAA are agreed on the short-term solution. One where the ancient copyright rules spin the money back to the pigopolists, and some sucker, likeApple, is left holding a brand of dubious (and soon to be extinct) value. [Emphasis added]

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #33

Apple, Linux and BSD: The ‘Other’ Platforms - Oct 06, 2003

By Rob Enderle, Published in TechNewsWorld

Relevant Quote:

"The biggest long-term problem with moving to an Apple platform is that the company is in decline, which means you might have to migrate again at some point to another platform. Despite this, the Mac is a solid platform and looks damn good on a desktop."

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #32

Apple Hits a High, but Fails to Convince Big Investors - Jun 12, 2003

By Unnamed Fund Manager, Published in TheStreet.com

Relevant Quote:

"Apple clearly has great customer loyalty. But they just can't compete with Microsoft and Intel," says one fund manager who asked to remain anonymous, calling Apple "a classic example" of a company on the losing end of long-term competitive pressure. "It's been a value stock for a long time. I think we made the decision a long time back on sticking with winners," says the manager.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #31

Mac G5: Too Little, Too Late - Jun 12, 2003

By James Maguire, Published in NewsFactor

Relevant Quote:

If the rumor was, instead of a hot G5, that Apple had developed a new manufacturing process that enabled it to compete price-wise with Windows, that would be the news Apple needs.

Looking at the future of the PC market, Apple's premium pricing structure becomes ever more outdated. A few years downstream, Linux desktops will force Windows to get cheaper. At that point even Windows boxes, seriously cheaper than Apple, will be in the "too expensive" category.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #30

Carving up Apple - May 12, 2003

By Joshua Jaffe and Rob Enderle, Published in TheDeal.com

Relevant Quote:

Many close observers of the legendary Silicon Valley company believe shareholders shouldn't be selling the stock. They should be buying it, they say, in order to press the 48-year-old Jobs to split Apple into two separate companies built around its hardware and software lines of businesses, or get new management that will. "Given what their valuation currently is, I think this is something they will eventually have to do," argues Rob Enderle, a research fellow at Giga, a research unit of Santa Clara, Calif.-based Forrester Research Inc. "They have to dig themselves out of the going-out-of-business cycle they are currently in.

Apple Death Knell #29

Apple’s Exit Strategy - May 10, 2003

By Steven Den Beste, Published in USS Clueless Blog

Relevant Quote:

If those things are true, it doesn't mean instant death. It's more like a lingering debilitating illness, leading to slow decline over a period of years. It's not so much an urgent crisis as it is a long term certain death sentence. Suppose that Jobs knows this. We don't know how much IBM expects to charge Apple for the 970, but Jobs certainly must know at least in general terms. If so, then if Jobs himself knows that the Mac is doomed, it means that Jobs primary duty to his stockholders is to find another business to move Apple into, during the breathing space available while the computer business slowly withers away.

Apple Death Knell #28

Do Not Read This Column! - May 08, 2003

By John Manzione, Published in MacNet

Relevant Quote:

Is Apple doomed to fail? If I had to bet on it I would say they absolutely are. No one at Apple has the guts to correct the mistakes of Steve Jobs. Apple is a toy for Steve, and a way to massage his ego. Right now no PC company makes hardware that looks as good as Macs, and no OS looks as good as OS X. That can, and will, change very soon. The PC world has gotten the message, and they’ll soon drive the final nail into the Apple coffin.

Apple Death Knell #27

Apple’s seeds choked by weeds - Jan 23, 2003

By Russ McGuire, Published in WorldNetDaily

Relevant Quote:

Notebook computers, operating systems, monitors, servers, presentation software… I'm sorry, these are commodities that are already widely adopted. Find a way to exit these businesses – preferably by spinning out or selling to a company that can continue to support die-hard Macintosh fans who are married to the ways that the Mac OS blows away Windows.

Apple Death Knell #26

What’s Ahead for 2003? - Jan 06, 2003

By Michael Rogers, Published in MSNB

Relevant Quote:

There are always certain stories on the horizon where I expect some plot turns, and this week I'll suggest a few prospects for the 2003 watch-list. [...] Apple Gets Married: There are only so many redesigns of the iMac left for Cupertino, and being the Bang and Olufsen of computers doesn't look like a longtime niche. The company is moving toward the consumer electronics space, in everything from digital media boxes to handheld players -- but that is even more vicious and margin-thin territory than the PC biz.

Even for Steve Jobs, going up against Sony has to look a bit scary. So does Apple license their cool media software for others to build into devices? The one time they tried licensing, Apple execs pulled the plug quickly. The elegant fusion of hardware and software is the DNA of Apple; seeing the Apple logo come up on the screen of some tinny consumer junk seems like sacrilege. Apple needs a long-term partnership, or even an outright sale, to someone who really knows how to play the game.

My candidate: Canon. Jobs has a long-term relationship with the company (they helped him both get into and out of his NeXT computer venture). And check out those new ads with an Apple on one page and a Canon camera on the other: when you give that much expensive space to someone they better be more than just a friend.

By IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky, Published in The Mac Observer

Relevant Quote:

"Certainly by...2005, possibly by the end of 2003, Linux will pass Mac OS as the No. 2 operating environment," said IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky.

Apple Death Knell #24

Crunch Time for Apple - Nov 05, 2002

By James Maguire, Published in osOpinion

Relevant Quote:

So, the challenge Apple faces is a tough one. It has to offer Macs at prices comparable with Windows, at speeds as fast as those of Windows-based PCs, with complete Windows compatibility. If it can't do that, the brand will simply fade away, a quarter of a percentage point at a time. I'll miss it.

Apple Death Knell #23

IT Trends 2003: Desktop and Mobile PCs - Oct 28, 2002

By Rob Enderle, Published in Giga Information Group

Relevant Quote:

Apple is being driven out of every segment but consumer: Companies are driving out non-standard hardware and both increasingly view Linux as a better alternative platform and UNIX as a platform they don't want to resurge on the desktop. The lack of management tools, pull back of key vendors like Quark and an anticipated drop in market share below 2 percent in 2003 are obsolescing this platform. Apple's continued technical disadvantage against Intel is expected to force them to adopt x86 technology by the end of 2003. 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #22

Reflections from the Microprocessor Forum - Oct 18, 2002

By Sander Olson, Published in Geek.com

Relevant Quote:

Apple is in long-term decline. Even if Apple adopts the IBM 970, no one at the MPF expressed any confidence in Apple's future. The near consensus was that Apple was in a long term, perhaps terminal, decline, and that the 970 would not be enough to save it. Every year more Macintosh users convert to Windows, and this trend will continue unless Apple comes out with another "insanely great" product.

Apple Death Knell #21

E-Mac, i-Mac, No Mac - Jun 17, 2002

By John C. Dvorak, Published in PC Magazine

Relevant Quote:

[This is more about the Mac than Apple, but follows Mr. Dvorak's negative coverage of Apple.] Isn't it about time the Macintosh was simply discontinued -- put down like an old dog? Why, exactly, does Apple maintain this line of machines instead of starting fresh or at least introducing something new with fresh legs. The Mac has become the AS/400 of desktop computing, except for the fact that it's prettier. Of course, if Apple never moves forward, what happens to the copycat Windows platform?

Full Coverage by TMO

By Paul Hsieh, Published in Apple's Demise

Relevant Quote:

Who says Apple is Doomed? I DO!

Apple Death Knell #19

Apple’s Scraping the Bottom of the Barrel - Oct 25, 2001

By Arne Alsin, Published in TheStreet.com

Relevant Quote:

It's too bad for Apple that the ending to this chapter in the PC story has already been written. The company had the ultimate first-mover advantage many years ago with an array of better products, a vastly superior operating system and even the best commercials! Apple's story now is fodder for business historians -- don't make it fodder for your portfolio.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #18

Apple Core of Ailing PC Sector - Bear Argument - Sep 05, 2001

By Paul Larson, Published in The Motley Fool

Relevant Quote:

So why am I here relaying my bearish thoughts on Apple yet again? Because, basically, nothing has changed over the last nine months. That is, beyond Apple seeing greatly decreased sales while ringing up copious losses. Moreover, the company's competitive positioning still has the company as nothing more than a niche player fighting for its survival in the mean world of PCs. [See also the accompanying Bull Argument by Rick Aristotle Munarriz that was published with this piece, as well as commentary from TMO.]

Full Coverage by TMO

By Cliff Eddwards, Published in BusinessWeek

Relevant Quote:

The way Jobs sees it, the stores look to be a sure thing. But even if they attain a measure of success, few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path. Jobs's focus on selling just a few consumer Macs has helped boost profits, but it is keeping Apple from exploring potential new markets. And his perfectionist attention to aesthetics has resulted in beautiful but pricey products with limited appeal outside the faithful: Apple's market share is a measly 2.8%. "Apple's problem is it still believes the way to grow is serving caviar in a world that seems pretty content with cheese and crackers," gripes former Chief Financial Officer Joseph Graziano.

By David Goldstein (in support of author Cliff Edwards - see above), Published in BusinessWeek

Relevant Quote:

"I give them two years before they're turning out the lights on a very painful and expensive mistake." David Goldstein was at this time the president of Channel Marketing Corp, and research and analysis company covering the retail sector. [As of this writing, it's been more than two and a half years, and the Apple Stores are doing well. - Editor]

Apple Death Knell #15

Q&A: The Tech Slump Doesn’t Scare Michael Dell - Apr 16, 2001

By Michael Dell, Published in BusinessWeek

Relevant Quote:

Q: What is the future of Apple Computer?
A: Silicon Graphics.

Q: That bad?
A: Maybe it's a little bit different. But if you look at proprietary computer companies, whether it's Digital or Silicon Graphics (SGI ) or Apple (AAPL ), I think the fates are all relatively similar. We know how the movie ends. It's just a question of what happens in the middle. Apple has a very little customer base. If you look at the economics, it has been extremely hard for Apple to get a return on its R&D with a shrinking volume base. It's not to say that Apple's products aren't innovative or cool, but the economic factors here are so overwhelming, it's very hard for them to swim against that tide.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #14

Technology’s walking dead - Jan 05, 2001

By Michael Kanellos (Though the bio is about Paul Somerson, under whose name this piece appears to have been originally published), Published in ZDNet

Relevant Quote:

[Article about tech predictions] 2004: Apple - Watch for the big fire sale. Pretty designs and overpriced blue plastic can only get you so far.

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #13

Why Apple Is Losing Its Appeal Again - Dec 11, 2000

By Sam Jaffe, Published in BusinessWeek

Relevant Quote:

Investors may be asking themselves what Apple can do to revive its fortunes. The likely answer, unfortunately, is that Steve Jobs has no white rabbits left in his hat. Apple appears to be facing a dead end in its business growth, the victim of mismanagement and unmitigated hubris. Apple lovers are a loyal bunch, and they'll probably stick with the company. But Jobs's dream of becoming the world's biggest computer-maker will likely remain just that -- a dream. 

Full Coverage by TMO

Apple Death Knell #12

Apple R.I.P. - Oct 05, 2000

By Michael S. Malone, Published in Forbes

Relevant Quote:

Steve Jobs can't run companies, but he has proven that he is a genius at motivating teams of people to produce extraordinary products. In fact, he may be the greatest project team leader in the history of high tech. That is no small achievement. But it does not translate to being the CEO of a giant corporation. Jobs failed the first time running Apple, failed at Next and only succeeded at Pixar because the company worked around him. He succeeded in the short term during this, his second, Apple tenure because he ran the whole company as a product team. That only works so long. Why is he a poor CEO? Because he's mercurial, insufficiently engaged by the more boring (but crucial) operations like distribution and, ultimately, because he's a pretty nasty piece of work. In the best of all scenarios, Jobs would hire a competent CEO and focus on product development, but his ego would soon lead him to undermine his replacement. Steve Jobs is Apple's Alcibiades: the company can't live without him, or with him.

Apple Death Knell #11

OH, DO I LOVE MY iMAC - Oct 05, 1998

By Peter Burrows (Negative Comments from then Oppenheimer analyst James Poyner), Published in BusinessWeek

Relevant Quote:

How will iMac fare once the novelty fades? ''This computer is a fashion statement right now, but those things wear off,'' says Oppenheimer Securities analyst James D. Poyner. ''If Apple intends to sell lots of machines based on how they look, that's a pretty tenuous story.'' The iMac has to hold its own in a market of sub-$1,000 (and falling) PCs. And Korean-based E-Machines has announced plans to sell an iMac look-alike for less than $600, say analysts.

By Michael Dell, Published in TechWeb

Relevant Quote:

Faced with a similar question on what he would do if he were acting chief executive Steve Jobs, Dell chief executive Michael Dell said, "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."

Apple Death Knell #9

Rotten To The Core - Sep 05, 1997

By Bryan Chaffin, Published in Webintosh (now The Mac Observer)

Relevant Quote:

I am interested in starting a shareholder drive to give Joel Kocher the position of President/CEO of Apple. That might be a stretch, but wouldn't it be fun? With Apple's right to hire Power employees, I could swiftly envision an Apple that is better than either Power or Apple were in the past!! Mr. Kocher, are you interested? In the meanwhile, Power Computing will be selling Mac OS systems for another three months. I am intending to buy enough systems from Power to last my company until Rhapsody is released. At least then I can buy an Intel system that will run a good OS. I love the Mac, I look forward to Rhapdosy, I despise Apple. Mr. Jobs, go back to Pixar and make movies, I think you have done enough to "save" Apple.

Apple Death Knell #8

Apple Abandoned By Jobs, Ad Agency - Jun 30, 1997

By Author Unknown, Published in Tabloid

Relevant Quote:

An Apple spokesperson acknowledged that a block of 1.5 million shares had been sold on Thursday but would not confirm that the sale involved Jobs. But the California Technology Stock Letter confirmed that the shares belonged to Jobs, according to the Newsbytes News Network. Jobs' sell-off of stock at rock-bottom prices is a clear indication that even the Apple co-founder -- who recently returned to the fold as uber-consultant to floundering Apple CEO Gil Amelio -- thinks the company is a dead fish. [Thanks to an anonymous Observer for the link.]

Apple Death Knell #7

101 Ways to Save Apple - Jun 01, 1997

By Milo Medin, then president of @Home, Published in Wired

Relevant Quote:

I'm a Mac lover, but last year I switched over completely to Windoze because Apple couldn't build a reasonable laptop. I really want it to succeed, but I think the company's finished. Software vendors aren't turning out enough code to keep the Mac as a really good platform, even for family and school stuff. This whole NeXT decision seems to be a waste of time. It should have been sold to HP for $35 per share a year and a half ago. Maybe if Apple caves in, Windows will get so much market share that the Department of Justice will intervene and break up Microsoft. I think Window's competition is really the NC- and WebTV-type box. Which is truly sad.

Apple Death Knell #6

101 Ways to Save Apple - Jun 01, 1997

By Nathan Myhrvold, then chief technology officer at Microsoft, Published in Wired

Relevant Quote:

"The NeXT purchase is too little too late. The Apple of the past was an innovative company that used software and hardware technology together to redefine the way people experienced computing. That Apple is already dead. Very adroit moves might be able to save the brand name. A company with the letters A-P-P-L-E in its name might survive, but it won't be the Apple of yore."

Apple Death Knell #5

Surrender To Win - Mar 01, 1997

By Author Unknown, Published in The Writeside Review

Relevant Quote:

[We love the Mac, blah blah blah...] But we have had enough. Apple cannot continue on its present course and expect to survive. Apple and (by default) the Mac are in a downward spiral that, unless reversed soon, will prove fatal. (Don't let the early, limited success of the Mac clone market mislead you—most of this growth has come at Apple's expense. And, contrary to popular opinion, we do not believe the Macintosh can survive without Apple.) The popular press, the corporate marketplace and the public at large all believe Apple is dying, or dead.

Apple Death Knell #4

The Untold Story of Apple’s Demise - Feb 06, 1997

By Bruce Brown, Published in Bug Net

Relevant Quote:

Now that the Apple Macintosh is disappearing as a mass market product (it did not even make the top five in US sales during the last quarter of 1996), this soap opera will mercifully fade from the headlines. But the lessons remain, and bare heading: inept, amateurish management can ruin the best product and brightest company.

Apple Death Knell #3

Apple of Sun’s Eyes - Feb 05, 1996

By Stewart Alsop, Published in Time Magazine

Relevant Quote:

One day Apple was a major technology company with assets to make any self-respecting techno-conglomerate salivate. The next day Apple was a chaotic mess without a strategic vision and certainly no future. [Article found through David Pogue's column "The Desktop Critic: Reality Check 2000" in Macworld Magazine]

By Stan Dolberg of Forester Research, Published in Macworld

Relevant Quote:

These facts were summed up by Stan Dolberg of Forrester Research who said, "whether they stand alone or are acquired, Apple as we know it, is cooked." [Article found through David Pogue's column "The Desktop Critic: Reality Check 2000" in Macworld Magazine, where the quote still resides.]

Apple Death Knell #1

Interview With Steve Jobs by Daniel Morrows - Apr 20, 1995

By Steve Jobs, Published in Smithsonian Institute

Relevant Quote:

What that cost them was the future. What they should have been doing was making reasonable profits and going for market share, which was what we always tried to do. Macintosh would have had a thirty- three percent market share right now, maybe even higher, maybe it would have even been Microsoft but we'll never know. Now its got a single digit market share and falling. There's no way to ever get that moment in time back. The Macintosh will die in another few years and its really sad. The problem is this: no one at Apple has a clue as to how to create the next Macintosh because no one running any part of Apple was there when the Macintosh was made--or any other product at Apple. They've just been living off that one thing now for over a decade and the last attempt was the Newton and you know what happened to that. It's kind of tragic, but as unemotionally as I can be, that's what's happening. Unless somebody pulls a rabbit out of a hat, companies tend to have long glide slopes because of the installed bases. But Apple is just gliding down this slope and they're loosing market share every year. Things start to spiral down once you get under a certain threshold. And when developers no longer write applications for your computer, that's when it really starts to fall apart.