The Mac Observer Forums

What if a recovery is all in your head

2009-11-22T12:09:46-05:00

Very interesting article submitted by Robert Shiller (Case / Shiller - economist / professor at Yale). I’m in awe at with our sophisticated society and economy how confidence plays such a major role. Herd mentality can truly kick in (either direction) and turn fears into reality. The 1920’s run on the bank is a perfect example and could easily have happened a year ago. I always discredited government reports on investor confidence until recently. If people feel things are improving or deteriorating for long enough period of time their feelings/beliefs will turn into reality.

Certainly an unscientific approaching to long term investing but human nature must enter into the equation when talking about the economy, investing, almost anything (in fact everything)...

“Consider this possibility: after all these months, people start to think it’s time for the recession to end. The very thought begins to renew confidence, and some people start spending again — in turn, generating visible signs of recovery. This may seem absurd, and is rarely mentioned as an explanation for mass behavior late in a recession, but economic theorists have long been fascinated by such a possibility.”

Ford 2009 = Apple 1999?

2009-11-05T12:57:45-05:00

I hope this isn’t considered off topic.

I have been investing in Apple since 1999. Back then, my Apple fanboyism led me to recognize that Jobs’ turn around of Apple was going to work. That insight has made me a nice bit of change. Ever since then, I have been looking for companies in similar circumstances; a beat down company that still had a good brand, loyal fans and were making the changes necessary to turn things around.

For a while now, I have been looking at Ford. I like the changes in their product line and I think they are capable of build excitement among car buyers. I know the comparison isn’t perfect. Ford has enormous debt and Apple in 1999 didn’t have much debt, something like 200-400 million to 4 billion in cash.

I am just curious. Have any of you long time Apple investors been thinking the same thing?

Given how cheap F is right now, I am tempted to make a speculative, high-risk investment.

1Q iPhone Shipments

2009-11-21T20:18:56-05:00

Now that we’ve moved past mid-quarter I’m working on a serious revision of my iPhone unit sales forecast. It’s tricky considering the continuing global roll out and the popularity of the 3GS model.

Last quarter (Q4 2009) Apple shipped about 7.4 million iPhones leaving the channel inventory relatively unchanged at about 2 million units. The year prior the company sold 6.892 million iPhones. Though this represented only a 7% increase in the reported number of iPhones sold, sell through was significantly higher due to channel inventory remaining virtually unchanged.

In Q1 2009 Apple shipped 4.363 million iPhone units representing a huge gain over the prior year (88%) due to the release of the original 3G iPhone but representing a sequential drop of 37% from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009.

So what should we expect for Q1 2010 for iPhone shipments? Absent a new model being released early next year there’s room to expand channel inventory (which is necessary to supply the significant increase in global selling points) and sales growth due to an increasing number of territories receiving the 3Gs iPhone for the first time.

Celebrity Bulls and Bears

2009-11-20T02:19:07-05:00

Bulls: Louis Navieller, Ken Fisher, ...

Bears: John Hussman, Bob Prechter, Glenn Neely, Meredith Whitney, Gary Shilling, David Rosenberg, Marc Faber, ...

Around Jun-Jul, bears forecasted that market had peaked and would fall by 50% by year end. After consolidating for about a month, market resumed rallying and had broken above 1100 briefly. These bears had since readjusted their targets and insisted that they are right. Most bears think 1100 is the peak and the second dip has started. Could they be correct this time?

Btw, S&P has yet to recover 61.8% (about 1230) of its decline from 07’s peak. Hence, from the EW perspective, S&P could be in a B-wave (up), that would be followed by a C-wave (down). Breaking above 1230 would mean ABC could be 123 of an impulse.

Edit: Added David Rosenberg. There are more bears than bulls. Contrarians would be bullish.

Edit: Added Marc Faber.

Investor Emotions

2009-11-19T21:23:29-05:00

A year ago I read a book on behavioral finance and today picked it up again to read through the highlights. It’s a fascinating subject that can make any trader a better trader if they can learn about themselves and their ability to be more mechanical, less emotional with trading. I figured I would post a thread and see if anyone wanted to share any thoughts on the subject. Perfect example would be today. The last two days the markets put in some pretty bullish action, each day moving down and then rallying at the high of day and in fact yesterday was a new high. Then you get a big down day today with a little recovery into the close and the fear begins to set in. One highlight in the book is the reality that a loss is 2.5 times more difficult emotionally than is the joy of winning. Perhaps that is why down days seem to garner a lot more emotion than up days.

As traders and investors we need to understand if this fear is our own emotion guiding us or if it’s based on something more fundamental.

Anyway, hoping we can get a little discussion started here.

Thanks in advance for sharing your experience, what you’ve learned about your own investing and emotions, etc.

Tony

The WEEKEND RANT. “Would YOU Like to be MY Partner?” { Why recovery will take forever….}

2009-11-20T18:30:28-05:00

Would you like to be my partner?...

I’d like to make you a business offer. Seriously. This is a real offer. In fact, you really can’t turn me down, as you’ll come to understand in a moment…

Here’s the deal. You’re going to start a business or expand the one you’ve got now. It doesn’t really matter what you do or what you’re going to do. I’ll partner with you no matter what business you’re in – as long as it’s legal. But I can’t give you any capital – you have to come up with that on your own. I won’t give you any labor – that’s definitely up to you. What I will do, however, is demand you follow all sorts of rules about what products and services you can offer, how much (and how often) you pay your employees, and where and when you’re allowed to operate your business. That’s my role in the affair: to tell you what to do.

Now in return for my rules, I’m going to take roughly half of whatever you make in the business, each year. Half seems fair, doesn’t it? I think so. Of course, that’s half of your profits. You’re also going to have to pay me about 12% of whatever you decide to pay your employees because you’ve got to cover my expenses for promulgating all of the rules about who you can employ, when, where, and how. Come on, you’re my partner. It’s only “fair.”

Now… after you’ve put your hard-earned savings at risk to start this business and after you’ve worked hard at it for a few decades (paying me my 50% or a bit more along the way each year), you might decide you’d like to cash out – to finally live the good life.

Whether or not this is “fair” – some people never can afford to retire – is a different argument. As your partner, I’m happy for you to sell whenever you’d like… because our agreement says, if you sell, you have to pay me an additional 20% of whatever the capitalized value of the business is at that time.

I know… I know… you put up all the original capital. You took all the risks. You put in all of the labor. That’s all true. But I’ve done my part, too. I’ve collected 50% of the profits each year. And I’ve always come up with more rules for you to follow each year. Therefore, I deserve another, final 20% slice of the business. Oh… and one more thing…

Even after you’ve sold the business and paid all of my fees… I’d recommend buying lots of life insurance. You see, even after you’ve been retired for years, when you die, you’ll have to pay me 50% of whatever your estate is worth. After all, I’ve got lots of partners and not all of them are as successful as you and your family. We don’t think it’s “fair” for your kids to have such a big advantage. But if you buy enough life insurance, you can finance this expense for your children. All in all, if you’re a very successful entrepreneur… if you’re one of the rare, lucky, and hard-working people who can create a new company, employ lots of people, and satisfy the public… you’ll end up paying me more than 75% of your income over your life. Thanks so much.

I’m sure you’ll think my offer is reasonable and happily partner with me… but it doesn’t really matter how you feel about it because if you ever try to stiff me – or cheat me on any of my fees or rules – I’ll break down your door in the middle of the night, threaten you and your family with heavy, automatic weapons, and throw you in jail. That’s how civil society is supposed to work, right? This is Amerika, isn’t it?

That’s the offer Amerika gives its entrepreneurs. And the idiots in Washington wonder why there are no new jobs…

JOKES thread ;-)

2007-01-11T13:00:43-05:00

Maybe too zune for that…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyuDAzzKnz8&eurl;=

Will Apple break a la carte data with “tether anywhere” plan?

2009-11-21T12:26:36-05:00

Right now I pay $$ to AT&T for home internet, mobile internet (iPhone x2), and will presumably will add an additional data plan with the MacPad.

Could Apple and AT&T be holding off on official U.S. tethering to finally put the mesh data network in place? Customers would pay one fee for ‘data anywhere’. The fee would probably be outrageous, but would be compelling if less than the aggregate of a la carte plans. For me, that number would have to be less than $110/month. The data anywhere plan would apply to any registered device connecting to the network, and would allow you to tether any of them to each other.

If any company could break this traditional inefficient model, replace it with a compelling alternative, and thereby drive widespread adoption, it would be Apple.

A goodbye to OS X, I suppose

2009-11-21T23:42:56-05:00

Well, those who know me will remember when I started to join in with then goings on in the IRC channel for macobserver, and later joined the forum and became a mod. Unfortunately, after about 6-7 years of using a Mac as my main desktop, I’m leaving the Mac platform for a Linux desktop.

Yesterday evening, I finished assembling a new Intel Core 2 Quad machine from parts and promptly installed Ubuntu x86_64 on it. I’m currently in the process of transferring all relevant files from the G5 tower I had been using to the new machine. In the process, I’ve gone highly power efficient, and will be cutting the average power consumption of my desktop in half, from 130W to 60W as measured by my UPS unit.

I will miss the Mac platform to a degree, but I still feel burned by Apple’s decision to leave the PPC platform, given my 4 year old G5 isn’t even supported under 10.6. My G5 tower is going to be retired to a speciality machine, only to be booted when I haven’t figured out how to do something I used to do with my new machine.

I’ll still be hanging around the IRC channel for anyone that wants to visit, but I’ll probably visit the forums even less than I have been for the last couple years.

So, to take a line from famous closing catch phrase from Cowboy Bebop….

See you Space Cowboy.

1Q Mac shipments

2009-11-16T00:03:59-05:00

My unscientific methods are pointing toward an excellent 1Q for Mac sales. The new iMacs are selling well and the 27” seems to be supply constrained. Likewise the new Macbooks. If not for the terrible macro economic background, we might even see a return to the days of 30% growth. But as things are, I am thinking low 20s.

My early line is for 3.15 MM shipments for the December quarter.

Anybody else feeling this level of optimism?