The Mac Observer Forums

September Quarter Street Expectations

2012-10-22T16:28:15+00:00

The Street is expecting Apple to report September quarter revenue of $36.23 billion and eps of $8.85. That’s an anticipated revenue growth rate of 28.20% and an eps growth rate of 25.53%.

What are your expectations for the quarter?

De-consolidating the Apple Finance Board

2012-10-02T16:51:11+00:00

Greetings, all—For those of you that missed the note in the announcements forum (or simply came here first), I wanted to post something similar here.

In short, today we’re de-consolidating the Apple Finance Board forum. Over the past 10 (or more!) years, the AFB forum had become a single place for lots of different types of Apple-related discussion, with a lot of it NOT related to AAPL (the stock). We’re fixing that today, and general discussion—including general stock discussion about AAPL (the stock)—will happen in 1 Infinite Loop, tech support and general Q&A will happen with the Mac Geek Gab Crew, and other discussions will happen where appropriate.

As for AFB, we’re putting a cap on adding new topics. This became a home for a small group of seriously-focused options traders, and as it turns out that was never a great fit here at TMO. It worked, but only because there was very little interaction between the options traders here, and the rest of TMO (including news content and forums) elsewhere. And, as I said, the conversation here tended to overshadow the rest of the forums, oftentimes stifling conversation from happening in its more appropriate threads elsewhere.

So today we fix that, which includes moving some of the more recent, general-purpose threads out of the AFB and to their more appropriate homes. I know many of you are as happy about this as I am. See you there!

October 25

2012-10-02T13:03:52+00:00

Apple will be releasing it’s 2012q4 earnings results of Thursday, October 25.

Any clues as to why the change from Tuesday to Thursday? Is there are important reason?

Apple Reports 5 Million iPhone 5s Sold

2012-09-25T05:06:34+00:00

I’m sure some license was taken, but Apple reported 5 million iPhone 5s sold over the weekend.

What’s your view on the number?

Apple At $700 Per Share

2012-09-22T06:31:47+00:00

While much attention is focused on the release of the iPhone 5 as it makes its debut on the world stage, Apple hit a new all-time high of $705.07 in intra-day trading and closed the week at just over $700 per share.

When the AFB began tracking the share price about 11 years ago, Apple traded at just a fraction above the company’s cash per share. With a market cap of over $650 billion today, it’s been a scenic ride over these years.

At $800 dollars per share Apple’s market cap will approach three-quarters of one trillion dollars. The release of the iPhone 5 moved the shares $700. What events or catalysts will move the shares to $800?

OT: iPhone 5 accessories/recommendations thread

2012-09-17T03:28:02+00:00

I think the very fact that I’m setting up this thread means I’ll be buying an iPhone 5 in the very near future…:lol:

Anyway, for those of us looking into some add-ons or cases/screen protectors for their new iPhone 5 - feel free to post recommendations or questions here (for those “early adopters” looking for vendors with a good history) or reviews (once the iPhone 5 and said accessories actually ship).

AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

2012-09-16T22:19:58+00:00

Exciting week ahead…

Weekend Updates - Archive

2012-09-14T20:14:11+00:00

A great start to a BBQ weekend. There’s plenty of burdock to hack here at home. Burdock is a weed with large clusters of seeds which stick all too easily to clothes and animals.

Meanwhile, my cruiser is in the shop yet again. I’m looking forward to a drive in the western Great Lakes pretty soon. Today’s troubles are in both the brake and fuel lines.

Tonight, taco salad deluxe and a beer.

Correlation between new LEAPs and a strong week

2012-09-14T00:04:26+00:00

As far as I know, the new Jan 2015 AAPL leaps will be appearing this Monday. I remembered last year when the 2014s appeared, Apple had a great week, so I decided to recheck the numbers as well as a few years prior. Obviously it’s a limited sample size, but there’s a really strong correlation going on here. Here are the closing prices for the given dates:

2011:
Date - Close
9/9 - 377.48
9/12 - 379.94 (2014 Leaps became available)
9/13 - 384.62
9/14 - 389.30
9/15 - 392.96
9/16 - 400.50

2010:
9/10 - 263.41
9/13 - 267.04 (2013 Leaps become available)
9/14 - 268.06
9/15 - 270.22
9/16 - 276.57
9/17 - 275.37

2009:
9/11 - 172.16
9/14 - 173.72 (2012 Leaps became available)
9/15 - 175.16
9/16 - 181.87
9/17 - 184.55
9/18 - 185.02

2008 was right in the middle of the financial crisis so it wasn’t really relevant. Of the past 3 years Apple had 14 out of 15 positive days and the weekly gains were 7.5% (2009), 4.5% (2010), and 6.1% (2011). Average weekly gain over 6%!

I think it’s reasonable to think that there are a lot more people waiting to buy the 2015 calls than there are waiting to make bearish plays on those new options. So is it that crazy to think there’s some serious upward pressure these weeks where new Leaps appear? Something to keep an eye out for next week…

Booking gains for tax purposes

2012-09-13T14:34:52+00:00

So I use a longer term horizon for my investing since I don’t have the time or skills to play the market. I need to book my gains in apple this year cause I’m a student and start work next year and therefore it will be taxed and capital gains taxes will likely increase next year. Since I don’t have income this year I figure booking the gains would yield a 25% benefit, but it means I have to be out of apple for at least a month. Obviously I would like to stay in apple long term but a 25% risk free gain can’t be passed up. I was thinking of selling all of it and buying a Leap while I wait out the month or something, any suggestions?