The Mac Observer Forums

AAPL Intraday Updates

2012-02-12T16:48:43-05:00

$500 in the morning?

What happens to options if a stock split is announced?

2012-01-27T01:50:13-05:00

Sorry for a NOOB question,

I have some long term call options (Jan 13) and I am wondering what happens to those options which have strike prices ranging from 420 through 525 if Apple announces a stock split before expiration date?

Do the number of options I am holding automatically double while their individual value halves, and is this taken care of by the market makers (Fidelity) from whom I purchased the options?

When will apple hit $600 per share

2012-02-13T19:43:04-05:00

Seems like a timely question to ask…

When will Apple hit $500/Share

2012-01-29T23:30:19-05:00

WIth Apple reporting it’s rise in cash to $97.6B, I’d like to hear opinions (this is my first “new topic”) regarding the theory that Apple’s share price has been correlating closely with the amount of its cash on hand. Simply put, the theory now forecasts 5 times 97.6 = a share price of 488.
Here’s a link to Asymco’s supportive data and discussion of the theory:
http://www.asymco.com/2011/09/26/when-will-apples-share-price-reach-500/

I don’t know why there might be a correlation, but I think if we see APPL trading in a 488 range until next earnings, the relationship becomes more ingrained in time. I welcome 488 this week, next week, any week soon.

Who Did It?

2012-02-13T19:54:38-05:00

Alright, ‘fess up. Who among us sold/bought 358,500 shares of AAPL After Hours at $502.60?

Options Strategy

2011-10-21T23:20:44-05:00

Wait until AAPL drops to 380 at least… Then see where that spread is trading.

Edit: P.S. I’m legging those next. I bought JAN’12 340 puts Friday morning.

“Other” stocks

2011-01-26T09:22:59-05:00

Why not.. we already litter up the commentary with other threads with ‘other’ stock posts…

we should have a dedicated thread for this.. I’m sure many of us would agree.

I will start the hustle with a quick ‘look out’ on the Rails..

particularily..

CSX.. closed Tuesday @ 70.25 All-Time High 70.70

KSU closed Tuesday @47.29 All-Time High 55.90

NSC closed Tuesday @ 62.92 All-Time High 75.53

UNP closed Tuesday @ 93.02 All-Time High 99.49

I’m looking for a little Choo-Choo… with the Choo-Choo’s

they are going to break sooner or later… and when they do, for those that like the Option game.. I would assume this is a rather quick and painless double or so.. *-just don’t get too greedy

EDIT: There was some nice love for CSX on CNBC on the open

EDIT #2: I changed CSX’s all time high to 70.70.. sorry.. that was a typo. I had it at 55.90. It made a new alltime high today.. lets see if it closes on one, as well as lets look for high volumes (obviously)

Elliott Wave Analysis

2011-10-22T11:38:32-05:00

Max pain thesis: So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Month   Max pain   Highest OI(calls)    Highest OI(puts)
Nov 11    $400          $440                 $400
Dec 11    $390          $460                 $360
Jan 12    $330          $400                 $350
Apr 12    $370          $410                 $250 

Since AAPL closed above max pain (Oct), AAPL is in a multi-month rally.

Why I’m Bullish on AAPL

2012-02-13T17:29:26-05:00

It all starts with fiscal 2011.

#1. During 2011 institutional investors shifted capital from the equity markets into the bond markets. Given how erratic the equity markets performed during 2011, we can see (in retrospect) why they did that. This shift depleted available investment funds for all equities, and specifically (because its our investment of choice) AAPL. No investment capital equates to low pricing.

But now, the institutional investors are shifting bond capital back to the equity markets. This is a reversal of their 2011 strategy and means we can expect an increase in equity pricing. I think this may be the single greatest influence on AAPL’s price, at this time.

#2. I have long held that Apple missed its internal numbers, numbers that the institutions (as we do) were bright enough to calculate from management’s guidance. Coupled with money flows moving to the bond market, AAPL lost what attraction there may have been for it.

One of the quarters that Apple missed (September 2011) I think was intentional on Apple’s part. SIRI is a big deal, a very big deal, and it was very close to being ready for prime time. So instead of shipping the latest iPhone in late June/early July, as Apple has down historically, management chose to delay shipping until SIRI was ready, in effect sacrificing FQ4/2011, to be able to clobber the competition during the all important December quarter. And they did. Clearly there is no credible competition to the iPhone and iPad.

Apple exceeded every estimate of revenue and earnings (setting a new high revenue and EPS result) that existed on the planet for FQ1/2012, then said during the conference call that if they had been able to produce more, they could have sold more. This statement is especially bad news for the competition, because the competition lost market share to the iPhone during that quarter. Further, for the first time since Android started shipping it lost its market share crown to iPhone. These are significant developments, and imply significant growth (besting Android) in future quarters.

#3. Management’s FQ2/2012 guidance clearly showed that Apple expects this quarter, historically the slowest of Apple’s fiscal year and slowest of the industry’s calendar year, will be the second highest grossing (revenue and EPS) in Apple’s history. Not what you would expect for the March quarter. The implications for FQ3 and FQ4 are enormous. On top of that, Apple is expected to refresh the iPad and iPhone within 60 - 180 days respectively.

#4. Apple has been unfolding a patent litigation strategy that culminated this past week with a direct attack on Google and Android. The attack was spearheaded with tested patents, and new ones just granted, that Android is clearly in violation of, with no easy work around, if one exists. Further, suits against Apple by Samsung and Motorola for FRAND patent violations are going to blow up in their (Samsung and Motorola) respective faces, as Samsung is now being investigated for anti-trust violations in the EU, stemming from Samsung’s FRAND suits against Apple.

#5. Then there is the metric I developed that illustrates Institutional Sentiment toward Apple’s reported earnings. Using my estimates of the past, compared to Apple’s results and this new metric, those quarters in which Apple missed its numbers become readily apparent.

Apple missed its September quarter numbers, and Institutional Sentiment immediately collapsed from +12 to a -4. Average sentiment during the subsequent December quarter was -6. Since January earnings average Institutional Sentiment is +9, increasing from +4 to +17 in 14 days.

Further evidence of this reversal in sentiment comes from AAPL’s historic average Friday to Friday performance. Since earnings Apple has exceeded historic Friday to Friday performance by 50%. Clearly investors were pleased with Apple’s December results, and encouraged by March quarter guidance. Whatever prevented Apple from making its numbers during 2011 has been corrected, and Apple’s products are clearly the leaders in their respective categories.

Projecting historic Friday to Friday trend (without consideration of the degree AAPL has been exceeding those trends) indicates AAPL will trade at ~$590 to $600 in the two weeks preceding April earnings. I should note that the historic trend includes results from 2 (of 3) years in which Apple missed its earnings and/or guided lower, resulting in the market reacting negatively.

#6. Finally there is the book = (Inside the Tornado, Marketing in the Silicon Valley”. What is happening today relative to platform adoption, is perfectly described by the author, almost 20 years ago. A paradigm shift is occurring right before our eyes, and the new paradigm is Apple’s iOS. Everything else, as with all previous paradigm shifts, will be battling for #2. Further, it will be very difficult for the industry to commoditize the new paradigm, as Apple has built a walled garden that guards against price erosion.

So there you have it, about 85% (there is more, but this is a post not a book) of what is influencing my investment decisions for this quarter.

AAPL Institutional Ownership

2012-02-13T08:07:28-05:00

I looked at those two sources:
Nasdaq and MSN Money

When you look at the top holders the top from MSN (Fidelity Management & Research Company with 52,040,176 shares) is missing at Nasdaq, the other top holders look very similar.
Looking deeper into Nasdaq reveals that FMR LLC (Fidelity Management & Research) has sold 47,882,040 shares and reduced its holding to just 1,926,706 remaining shares.

This explains the different holding percentages (68.80 versus 62.66), but the strange thing is that both lists show 09-30-11 as the reporting date for Fidelity. So I guess there is either an error in one of those two lists or they are really using different criteria.

But if Fidelity has really sold nearly all of its shares, this has already happened about half a year ago and should not be something to worry about now.