Steve Jobs has stated Apple will not meet the ambitious 100 million song goal for the iTunes Music Store by its 1st anniversary.

Was the goal just too high or are other factors impacting the pace of sales?

The iTunes Music Store is the undisputed leader in the sale of songs via of digital download. At a sales pace of 2.5 million songs per week iTMS still holds well over a 50% share of the digital song sales market. One factor impacting the company’s ability to meet the goal is the late delivery of specially marked Pepsi 20 oz. bottles.

What do you think is the primary cause of Apple missing the 100 million song sale marker by the first anniversary of the debut of the iTunes Music Store?

Edited 4/01 to change topic from sticky to normal

There is still a good chance that the goal of 100 million songs will be met.

The Wall Street Journal reports in an interview with Steve Jobs that the company expects song sales to reach 70-75 million, excluding the Pepsi promotion.  That said, a 25-30% redemption rate for Pepsi songs would be required to top the 100 mark.

Not impossible.

DT- where are you getting the info about Steve/Apple misssing the goal?
The C/net info is bogus/biased as usual, but has been widely reported.
Mac Daily News claims Apple WILL count the Pesi downloads.

But back to the poll:

1. The goal MAY be too ambitious, but I’m glad Apple is trying.
The negative spin some people put on this is amazing. 

2.  It looks like Pepsi didn’t quite have all it’s ducks lined up properly for this rollout.  The “tilt” info may equal the odds though.

3.  There ARE still illegal options for downloading, but with the RIAA crack-downs, and the plethora of services, consumers DO have more options.  I find it incredible that the ITMS can actually “steal” biz away from the free services.  That by itself is a huge success.

4.  The Windows version was “late” only by PC user standards, and I’m glad they got it right the 1st time, unlike some competing services I could mention. 

5.  They may be missing some key artists, but I don’t think it’s from lack of trying.  Some artists and labels may never join ANY online service.  I don’t think most users hold it against Apple, but it could help sales if a few hot artists would come on board.

6.  .99 is only too expensive if you’re used to getting your music for free.
The ITMS isn’t just the biggest store, it happens to be the best.  Prices will fall eventually, we still live in a capitalist society after all.

I’d say, that it’s a little bit of everything that may make Apple miss it’s goal; but for the 1st time in years I can say it’s not because of an Apple “blunder”.  ITMS sales are actually rising, and M$ hasn’t infected our national food supply with WMA bacteria yet.

I honestly think that those who see this as a “failure” by Apple, are still being driven to school by their parents. 

Update:  I just saw that Steve Jobs did just state this info in the WSJ.
(I should have guessed where you’d seen it DT     )

The article mentions the Pepsi promo, but is that just “spin”?

I still think it’s a runaway success for Apple, even at 75 million.

I would say the Pepsi campaign fizzled out pretty quickly. I have only seen the promotional bottles around here once (in a restaurant). All the Pepsi products in stores are still tied up with leftover Superbowl promotions. I have also only seen the Pepsi/iTunes ad twice since the Superbowl. Contrast that with the blitz of iPod advertising.

The iTunes Music Store is still a success, but Apple needs to keep at it and never rest on its laurels. “Just good enough” is a powerful force in the Windoze world and it could overtake iTunes if it doesn’t watch out.

I noted with concerns that the market share of iTMS is falling.

over 90% (cannot recall the exact number), 70%, now well over 50%?

I thought the goal of 100 million was rather insane from the start.  I honestly am not surprised that it may not be met.  I just never thought it was realistic, as even with the sales growing, they would’ve need an absolutely hyperbolic pace to meet 100 million within a year of opening.  Now, the press will dwell on Apple “not meeting it’s goals” instead of talking about how well the store is doing.

Is that framing the story badly?  Yes, but I think Jobs partly has himself to blame by setting the bar so absurdly high.