iMac Backlog

  • Posted: 21 March 2002 07:47 AM

    In a post on AppleInsider, the post says Apple has shipped 75,000 iMacs, and have 250,000 (!) backlog.

    How will Apple deal with this?  Does anyone have any info?

    Thanks,
    Dr. L

         
  • Posted: 16 February 2002 07:33 AM #1

    On 2002-02-16 10:40, hledgard wrote:
    In a post on AppleInsider, the post says Apple has shipped 75,000 iMacs, and have 250,000 (!) backlog.

    325,000 iMac orders!?  My goodness, that’s nearly half a million iMacs.  Either that figure is incorrect or the new iMac is very popular.

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2002 09:33 AM #2

    geeze.  Find me a time where Apple gets the order number right.  They are always over or under by a lot.

         
  • Posted: 17 February 2002 11:53 AM #3

    Cool thread, Dr. L. Thank you. I expect Apple to ship 3 million iMacs this calendar year (combined sales of all form factors). Although this requires iMac buyers to be a bit patient as Apple ramps up manufacturing of the new iMac, analysts and investors should interpret a hefty backlog as good news in terms of Apple’s revenue growth and net profits for the current fiscal year.

         
  • Posted: 24 February 2002 03:22 PM #4

    The mid-level iMac was supposed to ship this month.

    Is Apple’s backlog of the high end causing the mid-level to lapse?

    Is there only one production facility?

    Has anyone received the mid-level.

    All these issues could have a mjor effect on Apple.

    ???
    Dr. L

         
  • Posted: 27 February 2002 05:06 PM #5

    Supply of iMacs is obviously constrained at this time. I would think Apple would work to meet demand for the high-end model before shifting manufacturing resources to the mid-level model.

    Robert

         
  • Posted: 28 February 2002 02:57 AM #6

    I’m still on a mailing list from my long-ago NASA days, and most of my fellow Unix geeks are intrigued by OS X, if they haven’t actually bought a Mac already. And about a dozen Unix programmers I know here keep telling me “Let me know when you get that iMac, I want to drool on it.” (Or words to that effect.)

    So yeah, I could believe the 325,000 orders.

     

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  • Posted: 28 February 2002 11:06 AM #7

    MacUser (UK) posted an article on the subject this morning:
    (” No new mid-range, low-end iMacs till April ”)

    To summarise, delivery of new iMacs is due to “production problems” that are or may be “firmware-related”, which resulted in shutting down production lines for a full week.  In response, a Merrill Lynch analyst changed his volatility rating for AAPL to ‘high’, and predicted trouble for AAPL as a consequence.  Share price for AAPL fell $1.71 following this.  AAPL refused to comment on “production issues”.

    A quick shirt-sleeve analysis:

    I find this far more likely than the “radiation problem” nonsense that started circulating yesterday.

    A full one-week production halt will probably leave the iMac fulfillment schedule 3 weeks behind, which means frayed nerves for pending owners, more dire chortling by analysts & the press, and blood-pressure spikes for those AAPL investors who’re nervous about these short-term gyrations & fear for their investment. 

    Bottom line, however, is that iMac’s pending orders figures are very impressive, and this bodes very well for stock, company & platform.  AAPL has successfully managed to overcome roll-out glitches several times in the past, so I expect AAPL’s fortunes will not be significantly impacted beyond the short term;  production problems are common during new-model roll-outs, no matter what the product.

    I attribute AAPL’s current volatility directly to Steve Fortuna’s report, and consider it to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.  It’s also a pretty good example of the Street’s vulnerability to FUD;  I don’t think it’s indicative of anything really important.

    AAPL is a closely-watched but widely misunderstood stock like AAPL, and “PC industry analysts” are often TrueBelievers(tm) of classic Gatesian FUD (I’ve even seen Bill Griffeth on CNBC give their “Apple reporter” a hard time just for covering AAPL). 

    IMO, assessments such as Fortuna’s offer no real insight into AAPL’s position going forward, and their resulting volatility can be discounted w/ confidence.

    [ fixed the URL ]
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    <font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Pashtun Wally on 2002-02-28 23:15 ]</font>

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    <font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Bryan on 2002-03-12 00:28 ]</font>

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  • Posted: 28 February 2002 05:32 PM #8

    I agree with much of Pashtun Wally’s analysis (thanks again to Dr. L. for starting this informative thread). Negative pressure on AAPL would only last until analysts and investors were confident Apple has worked through its production issues and is in position to ship enough iMacs to meet demand.

    Apple works very hard to control component prices and manage its manufacturing resources. Turning on a dime so-to-speak to meet unprecedented demand for the new iMac may be a short-term challenge.

    I don’t believe the rumors about radiation issues. Whoever started that rumor (IMHO) has an overactive imagination. Further, the production numbers mentioned by the Merrill Lynch analyst make no sense at all.

    Apple may be delayed in shipping the new iMac, but the restyled consumer desktop will be in production for at least the next two years. In the long-term, a short delay in shipping the new iMacs will be quickly forgotten when manufacturing eventually meets up with demand.

         
  • Posted: 02 March 2002 05:18 AM #9

    On 2002-02-28 21:32, DawnTreader wrote:
    ...(thanks again to Dr. L. for starting this informative thread).

    I’ll add my thanks to that…and thanks to you, DT, for taking such an active interest in this unique forum.

    Negative pressure on AAPL would only last until analysts and investors were confident Apple has worked through its production issues and is in position to ship enough iMacs to meet demand.

    In some ways, I think the negative pressure never really lets up on AAPL, because analysts don’t ‘get’ Apple in fundamental ways - and so they’re never confident AAPL is on a good course.  Every time anything happens re:  Apple, they all agree that the sky is falling;  then, when the sky doesn’t fall, they say ‘never mind’, and carry on as if they’d been right about something.

    Apple works very hard to control component prices and manage its manufacturing resources. Turning on a dime so-to-speak to meet unprecedented demand for the new iMac may be a short-term challenge.

    AAPL has weathered short-term challenges such as this in the past;  I see no compelling reason to assume that the current glitch is anything more than just that.

    I don’t believe the rumors about radiation issues. Whoever started that rumor (IMHO) has an overactive imagination.

    Aint it great?  Now we’ve got open-source FUD!  Microsoft innovation @ its finest….

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  • Posted: 02 March 2002 06:37 AM #10

    On 2002-02-28 21:32, DawnTreader wrote:

    I don?t believe the rumors about radiation issues.

    Neither do I. Neither would anyone, actually, if they knew the respective physics (physicses? physicii?) of CRTs and LCDs.

     

     

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  • Posted: 07 March 2002 05:36 PM #11

    The current word is that the hold-up is LCD availability.  Apparently, the ‘motherglass’ shortage is impacting iMac production now.

    This is not just a hiccup in ramping up production:  this could stop the iMac rollout in its tracks.  If demand causes prices to skyrocket, AAPL will face an unpleasant choice between swallowing the increase (thereby taking a bite out of their profitability & whittling their cash cushion down a bit more & increasing speculation about AAPL’s shrinking margins) and raising prices to defray the rising cost of the iMac (thereby causing the worst stink about Apple’s pricing structure yet, including a nice big slagging in the “media”).

    Either way, the iMac will likely be in short supply for some time to come, and AAPLE will have another very public pratfall on its record.

    Either way, not good;  definitely not good.

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  • Posted: 08 March 2002 03:29 AM #12

    Can anyone confirm this?  Or have info on current orders?

    ???
    Dr.L

         
  • Posted: 08 March 2002 08:41 AM #13

    http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/communications/story/0,2000024993,20262943-1,00.htm

    “NH Techno Glass, one of the bigger LCD glassmakers in the world, was closed recently because of a boron gas spill and will not be able to supply LCD glass substrate until February or March, according to reports from Asian newspapers and analysts. The company’s customers include LCD producers Fujitsu, Samsung Electronics, International Display Technology, Chi Mei Optoeletronics and HannStar Display.”

    This doesn’t exactly answer your concern, Doc, but take it for what you will.

    I find this reassuring, actually;  it implies that the interruption is a known and limited quantity, & suggests that LCDs will return to production soon.  Given that, it stands to reason that iMac production will begin once again to accellerate.

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  • Posted: 11 March 2002 12:53 PM #14

    A salesperson at MacMall said they are now receiving shipments of 200 or so every two or three days, and the size of the shipments is increasing.  Said also there has been a very large demand and backorder list.

    She said that if I ordered today she thinks I would have one in 10 days.  Seemed honest and knowledgeable.

    Dr. L

         
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    Posted: 11 March 2002 08:30 PM #15

    Very cool info, Doc.

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