This topic is for iPhone FUD. The crap spread about by the usual suspects trying to create fear in the minds of investors and consumers about the iPhone.

So far this week there’s been a deluge of it. We’ve had SDK FUD (FUD ONE), keyboard (FUD TWO), and battery (FUD THREE). Even bullish analysts succumb to it sometimes, as this quote from commentary by Pacific Crest shows:

FUD FOUR
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Over the past few months, Apple’s stock has climbed on anticipation of the forthcoming hybrid cell phone, wireless Internet gadget and media player.

“But i think what people miss in talking about this is that Apple as a marketing machine is unrivaled in technology and right now in consumer electronics in general,” he added.

As I posted elsewhere, I say: Bullshit. “Consumers” haven’t complained about anything - they’re dying to buy it! Its all the mobile phone geeks, media shills, and dumbass analysts who have been “complaining” about these missing features.

The FUDmeisters are working overtime to try and create uncertainty. They’ll do it using their pet friends during and after the launch, and there’s a whole cadre of analysts and reviewers out there with vested interest in Motorola, Nokia, Samsung et al just ready to shrill loudly about all sort of perceived (and mainly imaginary) problems.

Be careful, and expect a deluge of crap for the next few months. If Apple do have several million phones ready to sell then the sales alone should be enough to drown out these shysters, but there are very powerful forces at work here who want to see AAPL have problems with its iPhone launch at all costs.

Post any iPhone FUD you come across here. Lets all have a laugh and chart their attempts to worry the cows. Let this thread be: The iPhone Death Knell Counter

Oh you gotta love this one… the hottest CE launch in history with constrained supply, and they’re trying to make us believe Apple will knock 20% off the price just cos you ask?

Read and laugh
(doesn’t really count as FUD, but I’m going to call it FUD FIVE anyway)
Save $100 At Apple By Being A Tease Over The Phone? 1,259 Views

If they make it obvious that they’re purchasing but are a little resistant to it being “too expensive” by about $100 - sales representatives can take off $100 off an order (as long as it’s purchased through the standard consumer store).

The Gizmodo story was changed, corrected to being about how to get $100 off phone purchases of Macs and otehr hardware, not the iPhone itself.

That total arse from JP Morgan is at it again. I didn’t see this bt I bet it was responsible for a lot of the pressure:

FUD SIX
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Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s Bill Shope this morning offered a list of potential post-launch concerns Apple investors ought to be thinking about.

Says Shope: “We caution that the euphoria over the iPhone could ease fairly quickly, particularly given the lofty expectations for the device.
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Sorry to swear, but this guy is a total dickhead.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]That total arse from JP Morgan is at it again. I didn’t see this bt I bet it was responsible for a lot of the pressure:

FUD SIX
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Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan’s Bill Shope this morning offered a list of potential post-launch concerns Apple investors ought to be thinking about.

And without further ado, we have someone posturing as “in the know” who isn’t privy to any of AAPL’s plans and is groundlessly speculating.. in the name of being a media whore. I give you…

FUD SEVEN
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Apple will likely have to deal with serious supply issues for the first four to eight weeks of the iPhone launch, Dr. Simon Croom of the Supply Chain Management Institute has told ZDNet. The group’s director indicates that the global nature of Apple’s supply chain will cause the extra strain as the company tries to ensure enough stock for the entire US, slowing down its ability to deliver new units. The situation may be compounded further by a possible spike in returns and problems supporting the device, as both Apple and AT&T will likely have to iron out any initial bugs in the handset and its service.
“Undoubtedly there will be shortages, service issues and challenges for call centers,” Croom says. “Pressure will also be felt for AT&T in terms of sales support – in particular trade ins, impact on the sales of other phones and customer’s expectations from a ‘revolutionary’ new product.”

Although Apple has so far declined to name its component makers, multiple sources have indicated that at least some of its iPhone assembly will take place in Taiwan and may involve parts delivered from Japan and Korea. The company has also attempted to control the quality of iPhone sales by limiting at least early sales to first-party Apple and AT&T stores.
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I will laugh my arse off if Apple have actually, somehow, managed to stockpile millions of these things and prove everyone wrong. Even if they haven’t though, this is a piece of idle speculation without any real insight or knowledge, just some “intelligent guess work,” if I want to be polite. And I don’t.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]
Accounting for the iPhone could be dilutive in the early quarters, he says. Apple has announced that it will use subscription accounting for the phone, and recognize revenue over 24 months. While the impact is to smooth earnings in the long run, he notes that in the short run “it has the effect of reducing our revenue and profit forecasts.”

I stand in awe at the utter magnitude of this robot mentality.  I had imagined that to become an analyst for JP Morgan one would have to have some understanding of the relationship between accounting and the real world.  Evidently not.  Filling in cells on spreadsheets and checking the arithmetic must be qualification enough.  Think, damnit, think.  The revenue and profit forecasts are (temporarily) reduced solely becasue of an accounting convention that has zero impact on cash flow, long term value, or return on investment, and should not negatively affect the stock price. 

To the extent that this type of “thinking” is prevalent on Wall Street, it presents an inefficiency that can be taken advantage of by sentient beings.  Buy AAPL.

“Consumers have complained about the product’s lack of buttons and 3G, or third-generation, network functionality, Hargreaves said.”

Consumers?  What consumers?  Where are there iPhones in the hands of consumers?

[quote author=“Zeke”]“Consumers have complained about the product’s lack of buttons and 3G, or third-generation, network functionality, Hargreaves said.”

Consumers?  What consumers?  Where are there iPhones in the hands of consumers?

Really!

The world is mostly full of average people, doing average things. After all, that is what average means…

If you find an average person spouting the average fud don’t listen or give it any thought.

Now, the smart person’s FUD, that’s worth listening to!

Without further ado, FUD EIGHT.. together with some old friendly stock options FUD for good measure.
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George Gutowski submits: Apple (AAPL) has had so much hype the only thing left is the cigarette. You know the iPhone will take over the world. It will make competitors shake in their boots. It will make otherwise sensible people run out and spend all their money. It will change the way we live (lots of things think they can do that). It will do unimagined things that only Apple designers….

Ok, it’s probably going to be a neat product. Apple will not embarrass itself. But think about it. The whole uber alles thing is very overdone. Apple just snuck out an email announcement that says you need to sign on at iTunes for your iPhone to work. This message is coming out in the veritable last minute before product availability. I feel a little bit manipulated into a cross selling marketing platform.

The iPhone is a big bet on touch screen technology. Most other touch screen technologies have problematic experiences. Apple is really rolling the dice here. They need for these problems to disappear right now. If the problems disappear for Apple, than it also goes away for the competition.

Has the iStockoption issue been fully resolved? When the hype wears off, there are still real world issues. Jonathan Hoopes of Thinkequity is also concerned about the valuation in relation to the hype. When everyone or almost everyone believes big time, who is left to buy?
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Article at SeekingAlpha

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Without further ado, FUD EIGHT.. together with some old friendly stock options FUD for good measure.
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Apple just snuck out an email announcement that says you need to sign on at iTunes for your iPhone to work. This message is coming out in the veritable last minute before product availability. I feel a little bit manipulated into a cross selling marketing platform.

I felt the same way when my new smartphone didn’t sync with mac. And you know what? I bought it anyway. Because I wanted the tech and I was informed. Now people are informed, and can make the decision with good information. At least iTunes integration is free, unlike WinCE or Palm integration.

Carl Howe of Blackfriars produces a stellar piece of anti-FUD
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iTunes account required for iPhone activation and software updates, not world domination
Carl Howe, Blackfriars Communication

A variety of authors seem to see a nefarious scheme behind Apple requiring an iTunes account to buy an iPhone. Sadly, this conspiracy theory that Apple requires an iTunes account so it can sell you millions of copies of Finding Nemo and thereby conquer the world is somewhat overwrought. The truth of the matter (or at least my theory of the truth—I only have soft data validating this) is that the iTunes account is actually required only for two functions:
iPhone activation. Apple faced a choice of either requiring an iTunes account to activate the phone and thereby contractually commit you to the hardware and calling plan, or sending you to a Cingular, pardon at&t store to do the same thing. Trust me—the iTunes account is going to do way less upselling than the at&t sales people. By the way, unless I’ve missed something, I think this will mark the first time any US carrier has allowed online activation of their phones and phone plans. Once people get over the shock of requiring an iTunes account, this technique might actually set a new convenience standard for getting a mobile phone actually on the air.
Software updates. In case anyone hasn’t noticed, Apple has promised ongoing software upgrades for the iPhone version 1 for at least two years (at least that’s the period over which it is amortizing the hardware sale, so it makes some sense). It needs a way to deliver those updates in a timely and secure way; the last thing you want is for such an update to fail and turn your iPhone into an iBrick. iTunes performs this function for iPods today, so Apple chose to rely on a proven mechanism rather than inventing a new one. Sounds like a smart business and customer experience decision to me, not a conspiracy.
But wait! There’s more! Hyawatha Bray has an article in today’s Boston Globle comparing five iPhone competitors. Despite therepeated wails of journalists claiming that the iPhone’s high price has doomed it to failure, three out of five of the competitors cost more, not less than the iPhone. And for those prices, you get the phone and the hours of joy on hold with your carrier customer service to activate and update it (if your phone handset provider ever bothers to issue updates, which most don’t), too!

Hmmm. Let me think about this. Buying an iPhone gets me a great piece of hardware, online activation, no sales people, no time on hold waiting to repeat my account and social security number ten times, and a lower price than the competition. Maybe Apple actually priced the iPhone too low.

Oh wow - here’s a HUGE piece of FUD. Tero over at TSC, their so-called “telecoms expert,” and who has repeatedly refused to write about the iPhone at all despite constant suggestions from me (he won’t even usually mention it in his articles when discussing the sector), has just shot his mouth of with the biggest piece of crap analysis ever. I give you: [b[FUD NINE by Tero: iPhone FUDMeister Elite!

Most of his points have either already been answered before, or are perfectly well refuted by already-public knowledge. In the UK we would say he is purely engaged in a “shj*t-stirring exercise” with this garbage. What would you call it over there.

Oh and BTW, did I mention Tero is from Finland… land of the Nokia? ‘Nuff said.
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Prepare for the iPhone Backlash

  * AT&T may have forced damaging restrictions on Apple.
  * What is the iPhone’s true power consumption?
  * It may not fare as well in Europe and Asia.

Position: None

The launch of Apple’s (AAPL - commentary - Cramer’s Take - Rating) iPhone is just two weeks away—and any day now, we’ll get some real information about the model’s pivotal features and associated service contract.

It is almost unprecedented that we know so little about a high-profile mobile phone this close to its launch. We do, of course, know that the 4GB model is priced at $499 and the 8GB model at $599. However, the true price of a mobile phone is a combination of the device’s price, the applications it offers and the price of the service contract.

For instance, an unlocked expensive phone that features GPS support and VoIP applications can save notable sums over a period of two years. That’s because its users can switch freely to low-cost mobile service providers, substitute it for a dedicated GPS device and use WiFi for long-distance calls. On the other hand, a model that lacks such money-saving features can carry a steep long-term cost for its owner.

How well do consumers factor in long-term cost and substitution? How much do they care about mobile VoIP’s cost-saving potential and the ability to switch carriers? This is hotly debated among device vendors and mobile operators, and we may gain crucial insights on it over the next 12 months.

Apple and AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer’s Take - Rating), the iPhone’s exclusive distributor, have battled over many issues in their deal. In fact, some of Apple’s demands were so unusual that they drove away Verizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer’s Take - Rating), the first pick for the iPhone carrier. Thus, AT&T became the only realistic alternative in the U.S., as Sprint (S - commentary - Cramer’s Take - Rating) and T-Mobile would be too small for a major launch like this. This gave AT&T genuine leverage over Apple—and that has likely resulted in some restrictions that may turn out to be controversial.

My current assumption is the following combination:

  * AT&T will have several years of exclusivity on all Apple handsets;

  * AT&T will chain iPhone into contracts that last a minimum of two years and cost at least $90 per month with barebones text messaging and mobile data add-ons;

  * iPhones will be crippled for mobile VoIP applications.

Apple undoubtedly extracted major concessions from AT&T, including veto power over key marketing and distribution decisions and a strong link between the iPhone and the iTunes service. The latter may effectively sideline AT&T in the content-distribution business built around the mobile device it sells—something that used to be a deal-breaker for any self-respecting mobile operator.

But if the aforementioned assumed limitations AT&T wants to place on iPhone turn out to be real, the handset’s sales trend will be extremely interesting to watch in the fourth quarter and particularly the first quarter of 2008. By then, some iPhone variation should be on sale in Europe and Asia. Investors will find out the extent of the iPhone’s American appeal outside the hardcore Apple fans at roughly the same time that the model’s international version goes on sale.

Needless to say, some recent projections for iPhone sales have been fever dreams, particularly those calling for a 7% U.S. market share by 2009. That would mean taking over 30% of AT&T’s entire phone range in just two years.

Even the oft-cited 1% global share is an astounding goal; the market-share range for all mobile phones that retail for $500 or more is about 2% to 3%. So will Apple take over half the global premium market or simply change worldwide consumer behavior? I have a hard time seeing Apple entering the $200 phone segment, either; selling midpriced phones is the toughest gig this side of being a Hilton family lawyer.

Winter Hurdles

Surely, iPhone shipments will sell out during the third quarter; the 2 million to 3 million American Apple loyalists are in the bag, no matter what the specifications are. But modeling sales beyond the first wave will be extremely tough.

The biggest smart-phone selling points in Europe and Asia this summer are GPS support, mobile VoIP functionality over WiFi and 3G-speed browsing and downloading of mobile content. Apple’s first iPhone will offer none of these—but it will cost more than models that do.

Will any of this bother U.S. consumers next autumn? Or will they accept the lower data transmission speed of EDGE technology (80-200 kbps) as well as the lack of GPS and VoIP over WiFi? It’s true that the American handset market still supports high-end devices with low-tech features; it’s the last affluent market with healthy demand for second-generation models, even at the pricier end of the market. This may change as AT&T and T-Mobile both ramp up their W-CDMA services near the end of this year.

So how big is Apple’s window of opportunity to sell the first iPhone with its limited specification range? Its spectacular display technology and unique software capabilities will do much to mask the hardware shortcomings—but only if power consumption is tolerable and the second generation of iPhones arrives in time.

To avoid a backlash, iPhone should deliver at least eight to nine hours of battery life for moderate mixed usage (with WiFi turned off most of the time). Mixed usage in this context would be, for example, 60 minutes of voice calls, 45 minutes of browsing and 30 minutes of music listening. This is below what competing smart phones can deliver, but I’m making allowances for the dazzling display. Anything less than this would likely create negative buzz, and that’s a major danger right now.

Millions of U.S. consumers will make an exception for Apple, but European and Asian consumers won’t accept less than HSDPA-quality W-CDMA support and either GPS or a better than 2-megapixel camera by the first quarter of 2008. Apple has to improve the phone specs a lot in six months, or it may find its appeal has clear limits outside of North America. That’s a tight timeline, considering there will likely be a lot of things to iron out with the first iPhone, even without major upgrading. No vendor has ever attempted to launch a new hardware platform, new display technology and new operating system simultaneously. Even the most experienced phone vendors tend to stagger innovation across product generations to avoid the development nightmare of complexity piled on top of complexity. Apple is locked in tough negotiations with European operators; any missteps with the AT&T launch would curtail its leverage with the already skeptical Vodafone (VOD - commentary - Cramer’s Take).

I’m not sure most investors realize what a high-wire act Apple is now attempting. Yet its share price has hardly wobbled after a stunning run-up through the first half of the year. Faith in the company has been absolute, even though every shareholder I’ve talked to is well aware of the media backlash scheduled to ramp up around June 18.

The iPhone-fueled Apple run has coincided with the Nasdaq ramp-up—a rare coincidence where a specific product launch matches a wider telecom/tech rally. This serendipity has created a unique setup for massive volatility over the next month.

Let the articles continue…

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-iphone17jun17,0,2726075.story

I especially like the final words:
“But there is yet another sobering fact to keep in mind. That PCjr back in 1983? The one people lined up for on its first day? The one that had a magazine devoted to it even before it went on sale?

It was a legendary flop. Only about a year after PCjr came out, IBM quietly discontinued it. The reasons were several, including the fact that it didn’t work very well and its features were disappointing.

The iPhone, about to make its big debut, does not want to hear that bit of history calling.” 

The NY Post is wrong about everything, including yesterdays weather.

FUD supreme.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/06172007/business/honing_the_knives_business_.htm

[quote author=“Play Ultimate”]“But there is yet another sobering fact to keep in mind. That PCjr back in 1983? The one people lined up for on its first day? The one that had a magazine devoted to it even before it went on sale?

It was a legendary flop. Only about a year after PCjr came out, IBM quietly discontinued it. The reasons were several, including the fact that it didn’t work very well and its features were disappointing.

Jesus Christ… this a*hole has to reach back 24 years for a reference? Talk about reaching - literally - for something negative to say.