Here we go! Now we have speculation the Apple nano iPhone will soon reach the market. What do you think? I like the volume numbers quoted.

I believe in the idea of an iPhone nano, but not this ridiculous suggestion of a phone with a rotary dial, virtual or otherwise, based on some patent from 2006.

Its .. patently absurd

There will indeed be an iPhone nano, and sooner than most expect I am sure, but it won’t be a nano with a rotary dial on it.. if you thought the complaints about the iPhone’s touchscreen QWERTY keyboard were bad, can you imagine what would be made of a rotary dial with multiple-tap selection for the letters?

Beware forecasts from JP Morgan.. they’re about as valuable as used toilet paper.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]I believe in the idea of an iPhone nano, but not this ridiculous suggestion of a phone with a rotary dial, virtual or otherwise, based on some patent from 2006.

Its .. patently absurd

There will indeed be an iPhone nano, and sooner than most expect I am sure, but it won’t be a nano with a rotary dial on it.. if you thought the complaints about the iPhone’s touchscreen QWERTY keyboard were bad, can you imagine what would be made of a rotary dial with multiple-tap selection for the letters?

Beware forecasts from JP Morgan.. they’re about as valuable as used toilet paper.

I love the iPhone keyboard. Apple is correct - I can type faster on it than with tiny plastic keys like blackberry. In fact, I can type so fast that the phone UI can’t keep up..if I type a full 70-100wpm.

I actually don’t see Apple releasing any other version of the iPhone anytime before January. There’s too much else to do such as meet current domestic demand and begin the EU roll out.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]I actually don’t see Apple releasing any other version of the iPhone anytime before January. There’s too much else to do such as meet current domestic demand and begin the EU roll out.

I’d have to go along with that comment. There’s an old story about the tortoise and the hare. Slow and steady, incremental steps. The next big step is going to be Leopard, and that’ll give us plenty of meat to chew on before the next device is added to the iPhone line.

Add me to the camp of those who do not buy the concept of an iPhone Nano in 2007, certainly not one with a click wheel. That AAPL go would backwards in tech after what SJ has said about multi-touch is absurd.

However, I believe the multi-touch ipods will be here before Nov. Perhaps a Nano version of this will follow in 2008, with Wi-Fi and Safari for Wi-Fi. I think JPM’s sources may be confusing this will a phone version.

There will be other versions of Apple Phones, at lower price points though….perhaps a year from now.
I don’t think it makes a heck of a lot of sense to enter the cellphone market, unless AAPL is aiming for min. 10% market share of the total market in 5 years. And AAPL cannot achieve that, IMO, without other basic lower-priced versions of the iPhone. Volume will also help margins by increasing purchasing power for components, so a 10% market share target is a must.

Finally, one can and must expect strong competitive product responses from NOK within 18-24 months (with or without multi-touch) Therefore, I believe AAPL needs to compete across a broader price-value spectrum of the mobile phone space and force NOK to play defense across a broad price spectrum. Else, NOK may use volume, revenues and profits from the lower and middle ends to price subsidize their high-end, and strategically thwart AAPL. At least, that is one of the things I would try if I were with NOK.

[quote author=“quantman”]
I don’t think it makes a heck of a lot of sense to enter the cellphone market, unless AAPL is aiming for min. 10% market share of the total market in 5 years. And AAPL cannot achieve that, IMO, without other basic lower-priced versions of the iPhone. Volume will also help margins by increasing purchasing power for components, so a 10% market share target is a must..

I don’t believe this Nanononsense either. Don’t forget, the iPhone gets to be “new” every so often with software/firmware updates, effectively giving the user a better phone for no cost. This alone will slow down the traditional product cycle. As a consumer that can be a good thing becuase many people don’t buy becuase they’re always afraid that they’ll be outdated as soon as they swipe the credit card. Not true in this case.

Also, I’m not so sure that Apple has to have that many variations of the phone in the pipeline in order to grab a big percent of the market. Hell, the iPod grabbed a pretty healthy number right off the bat with a high-priced product. I remember those cheap and shitty 8 - 32MB players that rivals were putting out at the time. Those were quickly forgotten.

Mac

One of the hardest transitions for Mac users and the Mac culture to accept was the overall shift in Apple strategy from major product announcements at two annual expos (January in San Francisco and July or August in either Boston or New York).

It lead to distortions in buying habits and delayed purchase decisions because Mac enthusiasts would wait until after an expo to make a buying decision. It was a nightmare for product development and release schedules.

Few see the long-term benefit of methodical planning and quiet and efficient implementation of product strategies. But Apple’s success over the past several years has been based of shrewd planning, calcualted R&D investments and determined steps to bring about success.

Because of the issues involved in FCC approval and other steps that would be very easy for the media to track, Apple chose to reveal its iPhone strategy months before release. The iPhone was years in the planning and even with a determined strategy issues occured.

The iPhone is less than two weeks in release. I don’t see Apple releasing a mini or nano version of the phone aytime soon. Resources are focused on the iPhone success. Until that success is secured, little else matters.

Leopard is the biggest release for Mac OS X since the release of its first commercial version. IMHO there’s too much Apple needs to do well with products already released or announced to focus resources on mini or nano version at this time.

Europe may be a bigger market for the iPhone than the US and the EU release (in all of its various states) of the iPhone is still months away.

I think it’s kind of sad that JP Morgan is resorting to FUD.  This is the equivalent of saying “Don’t buy an iPhone now, wait for V2.0”. 

Just as many have pointed out, this idea is ridiculous.  I mean, a rotary dial. 

The media are all over this “iPhone nano” story like a rash now… they’re talking about “Apple may be about to launch an iPhone 50% cheaper than the current model.”

Bloomberg has really lost it over the last year. They’ve tried to sex-up their channel and ape CNBC, with the result that they’ve lost the credibility and integrity they once had IMO, for the sake of soundbite journalism of the worst kind. Obviously Apple are going to release more versions of the iPhone, but this story - courtesy of some fairly shallow analysis by an Asian analyst over at JPMorgan (home of Bill “iPhone sales were disappointing” Shope) - is a canard.

There is a place for an iPhone nano, and I am sure Apple actively develop design concepts for it, but it doesn’t make sense to me for perhaps as long as 3-5 years. The reason is that it would be no more than an iPod nano and a cheap cellphone in one box; two backward-looking products glued together. A full iPhone has huge benefits for almost anyone, and delivers more profits and a “wider moat” to Apple. Whereas such an iPhone nano, although it might sell well, would be something Nokia, SE etc could fairly easily match, especially if the other music majors go non-DRM. AT&T’s reputed 5-year exclusive indicates that this decision was made last year. That exclusive is also an exclusive for the competition with every other carrier. The music majors would go non-DRM, and the handset majors would make a good enough competitor, and Apple’s strength would be broken. The reason SJ is pushing DRM free, is because Apple have already vacated the Fairplay castle, and the new castle has a new moat, while the attackers still surround the old castle.  So iPhone needs an installed base of perhaps 100M before iPhone nano makes sense. (Apple skates to where the puck will be . . . )

I also think iPhone (or touchscreen wifi iPod) may also be precisely where the “One Laptop per Child” puck is going to end up.

[quote author=“dmcnair”]Apple Plans Cheaper, Nano-Based Phone, Says JP Morgan
 

It never ceases to amaze me that these highly paid analysts state obvious business strategies.

The only thing of value that Mr. Chang states in the article is that he expects the cheaper version of the iPhone to come out in the 4Q. This seems somewhat unlikely as it is in Apple’s best interest to maximize the sales from early adopters (in economics the producer’s surplus ) and to sell cheaper iPhones once the flagship iPhone demand has been satisfied. And consumer demand must be satisfied worldwide, otherwise market segmentation will be circumvented by hackers and maybe even legislators.

So, no miniPhones until the iPhone is on sale in Europe and large markets in Asia (Japan, Korea, Australia, and maybe India and China).

EDIT: I had inserted this in the “AAPL Breaking News and Events” thread when I then noticed this more relevant thread

... so what may in fact happen is that the other handset makers compete with one another to make iPhone nano equivalents, and music goes non-DRM (but watermarked of course). This may damage low-end iPod sales, but the iTunes equivalents that are needed won’t be up to the job, and people will sync their music using helper applications piggybacked on iTunes, in preference to the apps and online stores provided by competitors. Thus Apple’s music store would end up feeding all the low margin, cheap music players and music handsets, as well as the iPod owners. Movies and premium TV shows OTOH, will not go DRM free. For video iPods, and iPhones, the other handset & player makers will not be able to deliver a competitive solution.

Apple may be opening the music iPod market to gain further dominance in media distribution.

SG, I don’t completely agree. I do see an iPhone nano device sooner rather than later, but delivering a different set of features. It will be a full-screen touchscreen in a small form factor, allowing a contextual interface to appear dependent on what functions were being used (so you’d have the full new Cover Flow GUI for the iPod functions), but the phone would likely not feature web browsing nor email, instead offering the now-familiar Widgets, which you can download via iTunes onto the phone.

There will be a multitude of these featuring a myriad of different functions, from weather to stock information, to customised database-querying for enterprise-like functions, but there won’t be web browsing per se.

Gone will be the full QWERTY keyboard too, replaced by the familiar numeric keypad with three letters per key or a variant of the idea - which will of course be a touch keyboard. The device will be SMS and IM-centric for messaging rather than email.

I think this will appear quite quickly in fact, but not this year (although boy what a killer product that would be for Christmas! )

The analyst over at JPM is totally myopic to discuss a fixed, physical touch-wheel or to suggest that it won’t be available through AT&T exclusively. AFAIK, AT&T have the exclusive on any phones Apple produce for at least the first 2 years of a 5-year distribution deal. Any new iPhones in the US won’t appear on any other networks, no matter how much JPM might fantasise to the contrary.

Where do they dig these bozos up from - kindergarten?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]SG, I don’t completely agree.

Actually, neither do I , but I have to write it first, then see what it looks like.

For me the big flaw in my previous post was that, even though an iPhone nano is something that might face tough competition, that’s not a reason not to release it. OTOH, Apple’s main competitive offering to users of other cell networks remains, of necessity, iPod.

The huge gap between the current video capable iPod and the Macbook (widened by the non-replacemnt of the Powerbook 12 inch), which has now been filled at the small end by the iPhone, may next be filled by a larger OS X product than iPhone; I envisage maybe a 5-6 inch screen, WiFi, and all the non-Phone features of iPhone, including multi-touch, the virtual keyboard, email, and web browsing. (For many people it would completely replace the PC for everyday use) It would be the showcase for multi-touch + Leopard.

Thus the true video iPod may first arrive as a larger-than-iPhone iPod. The nano may acquire a larger screen area and multitouch & video capabilities, but I think no WiFi or data entry, and no phone - yet.