[quote author=“alcatholic”] ... In terms of public understanding of Apple products, I think hardware defines Apple and at the moment I would argue that no hardware is a purer expression of OS X and its potential than iPhone ...

Unless DT meant otherwise, iPhone defines Apple .

Actually, for the next three years IMHO it’s all about the Mac.

The iPod financed Apple’s success during the awkward Intel transition and contributed to Apple’s record of being the fastest-growing bricks and mortar retail enterprise in US history. The iPod foot traffic brought in the numbers.

But the Mac is Apple’s durable bread and butter product. If the June unit numbers hold up, it will evidence the Mac’s staying power and resurgence beyond any reasonable doubt.

The iPhone is an attractive and break through product. But it will take time to reach its impressive potential. IMHO the Mac is now financing Apple’s product diversification, its hefty R&D investments and its transition from primarily a PC maker to a successful retail and consumer products enterprise.

The iPod and iPhone are delivering numbers to the Apple retail stores and each will benefit the Mac’s continuing success. For the next three years the Mac is Apple’s earnings catalyst.

In the 3-year to 10-year time frame, I think all bets are off. I’m excited about Apple’s future.

Actually, for the next three years IMHO it’s all about the Mac.

The iPod financed Apple’s success during the awkward Intel transition and contributed to Apple’s record of being the fastest-growing bricks and mortar retail enterprise in US history. The iPod foot traffic brought in the numbers.

But the Mac is Apple’s durable bread and butter product. If the June unit numbers hold up, it will evidence the Mac’s staying power and resurgence beyond any reasonable doubt.

The iPhone is an attractive and break through product. But it will take time to reach its impressive potential. IMHO the Mac is now financing Apple’s product diversification, its hefty R&D investments and its transition from primarily a PC maker to a successful retail and consumer products enterprise.

The iPod and iPhone are delivering numbers to the Apple retail stores and each will benefit the Mac’s continuing success. For the next three years the Mac is Apple’s earnings catalyst.

In the 3-year to 10-year time frame, I think all bets are off. I’m excited about Apple’s future.

Agree with your analysis.  Cheeky old fox ... all bets are off ...  We’ve polled for nothing .

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]Actually, for the next three years IMHO it’s all about the Mac.

Within that time frame, Apple may be able to put Intel into the iPhone, at which point it can be a complete Mac (apart from firewire).

My vote is for OSX because Apple will leverage it across all of its products. However, it is interesting to note that Apple’s Security Exchange filings shortly after OSX was launched predicted OSX was intended to have a roughly ten year life.

It is interesting though, products like the iPod and iPhone have been responsible for a resurge in Mac growth. Now if Apple could only get rid of its reliance on Microsoft products, like Office. I wonder what Apple had to give up to have Microsoft commit to continue developing Office for five more years? I never have heard of a contract being necessary to develop a highly profitable piece of software before.

[quote author=“Terrin”]My vote is for OSX because Apple will leverage it across all of its products. However, it is interesting to note that Apple’s Security Exchange filings shortly after OSX was launched predicted OSX was intended to have a roughly ten year life.

It is interesting though, products like the iPod and iPhone have been responsible for a resurge in Mac growth. Now if Apple could only get rid of its reliance on Microsoft products, like Office. I wonder what Apple had to give up to have Microsoft commit to continue developing Office for five more years? I never have heard of a contract being necessary to develop a highly profitable piece of software before.

Within five years I expect the need for Office to become obsolete for 90% of PC owners. Eventully I see Office as a student and enterprise product only. Google Apps will nicely meet the needs of the rest of the market.

You are all wrong. 

The product that will define aapl for the next ten years is, fanfare please, iTunes.  Or more accurately, the integrated device and media management platform that has iTunes as its nerve center.

The features of the iPod UI that make the iPod a delight to use also make it (the iPod UI, that is) ill-suited for managing the device.  When you want to use iPod, you interact with it directly.  But if you need to manage it (i.e. update the software, load media, etc.) you do that on your computer through iTunes which is designed purposefully for managing devices.  Apple and their costumers have discovered that this is the best method of handling the complexity of today’s gadgets.

The problem for Sony, Philips, etc. is that we’re already pretty satisfied with iTunes and we don’t want to use a separate platform just to manage our camcorder (while all our other gadgets and media are on iTunes).

In a few years, Sony, Philips, Samsung, etc. will be begging Apple to let them get on board the iTunes platform.  My own guess is that Sony will actually turn over ownership (if not just mere control) of most of their consumer electronics business to Apple.  Then, to ward of antitrust rumblings Apple will then license iTunes to any and all comers.

Then shall Apple have conquered the living rooms of the world.  (And ensured me a comfortable retirement thanks to my AAPL holdings.)

It all revolves around what you mean by “define”.

I voted for OS-X because I think of define as the thing that all Apple products will share in common.  OS-X will be the heart of all aapl products for the forceable future and the nature of OS-X and related Apple software will be integral to what hardware Apple sells.

If, on the other hand by “define” you mean what product will be most visible to the public, what makes them think “Apple” when they see it you get a different answer. For the average consumer OS-X is something they hear about but really don’t pay any attention to. For the first half of the last decade for the general public it was the iMac, for the second half it was the iPod. For the next half decade in the public mind it is likely to be iPhone. For the second half it is likely to be some indescribably cool device To Be Announced.

But my bet is it will run OS-X, and the public won’t know or care.

I agree, I don’t yet have an iPhone, but for awhile we’ve heard that actual desktop computers are on their way out except for certain activities, and that we’ll do our computing on other devices that are less obviously “computers.”

I’d say the iPhone is going in that direction. Someday we won’t need to schlep around a MacBook, the iPhone will do everything we need (include replacing cash and debit/credit cards and ID).