[quote author=“Quadra”]Nose bleed     Just sold the PM 140.60 couldn’t help myself
I’ll buy it back if we sell off at the open.

Good luck I just don’t think this is the time to try and time the stock.. it could shoot up or down $10 in a flash. I think its just worth holding on unless it breaks support, around 136.50.

Any run over $141.50 and the stock goes to $145 in a flash IMO.

It seems to me that the analysts are always too conservative with their estimates (they all can’t be bad at math, can they?). At least in their public utterances. I bet they give more solid numbers to their high end clients. If they’re not, then they all deserve to be fired.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“Quadra”]Nose bleed     Just sold the PM 140.60 couldn’t help myself
I’ll buy it back if we sell off at the open.

Good luck I just don’t think this is the time to try and time the stock.. it could shoot up or down $10 in a flash. I think its just worth holding on unless it breaks support, around 136.50.

Any run over $141.50 and the stock goes to $145 in a flash IMO.

Exactly, it’s the $10 downdraft I’m trying to avoid  

I guess if she gets over 141.50 I can still re-buy for the 145 ride!  BTW, These are day trading dollars.  Still holding long my (long) core AAPL share re-buy @ ~120.

Edit: There she goes down…  considering a re-buy!

Everything’s up this morning… AAPL hasn’t really benefited at all from any speculation about the AT&T sub. rev sharing arrangements.. IMO this is just market-driven, not AAPL-specific.

If there was genuine speculation from confirmation of there definitely being a revenue sharing arrangement (we know almost 100% there is one, but it hasn’t been officially confirmed of course) the stock would run another $10-20 in a flash. Trust me, this isn’t in the numbers yet, and won’t be until we get confirmation from either AT&T or Apple that there definitely is such an arrangement. We don’t even need to know exactly how many dollars Apple is getting, just that there is a revenue sharing arrangement in place, so that speculation of its impact can be included in analysts’ models.

Currently its such an unknown that none of them are willing to include it, hence the languishing forward earnings estimates.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Everything’s up this morning… AAPL hasn’t really benefited at all from any speculation about the AT&T sub. rev sharing arrangements.. IMO this is just market-driven, not AAPL-specific.

If there was genuine speculation from confirmation of there definitely being a revenue sharing arrangement (we know almost 100% there is one, but it hasn’t been officially confirmed of course) the stock would run another $10-20 in a flash. Trust me, this isn’t in the numbers yet, and won’t be until we get confirmation from either AT&T or Apple that there definitely is such an arrangement. We don’t even need to know exactly how many dollars Apple is getting, just that there is a revenue sharing arrangement in place, so that speculation of its impact can be included in analysts’ models.

Currently its such an unknown that none of them are willing to include it, hence the languishing forward earnings estimates.

yup HPQ is up more than Apple percentage wise and IBM is up 5%... all about growing PC market

[quote author=“SNIPUS”]HPQ is up more than Apple percentage wise and IBM is up 5%... all about growing PC market

AAPL is growing PC sales 300% faster than the others, selling phones at launch faster than any other company in history, has what looks like the best deal with AT&T that any phone manufacturer has ever managed to negotiate with any carrier, ever, yet its still viewed as a risky play and doesn’t get accorded any respect or forward earnings love.. sigh.

There’s a l-o-n-g way to go thanks to the continued ignorance of Wall Street and its idiotic inhabitants. That’s why this is the best investment on the planet. The disconnect between estimated earnings and true forward earnings potential grows ever larger even as the share price rises. That’s why we’re right, and they’re all wrong, and why people like UBS still can’t understand why they keep missing the boat and not getting a sell-off so the can get their private clients in cheaper.

And that’s why the stock is up $50 in just a few months. More people are “getting it,” but the more that do, the further AAPL demonstrates that it has yet to run as the earnings potential from an increasingly rich, deep, and diverse range of revenue streams is revealed a little more.

Once Fred Hickey says “buy AAPL,” it might be time to get out, but while there are still such stupid, vocal, crusty old bears around screaming for a sell-off yet to be converted, there’s room for the stock to run ad infinitum. Well, to $350 anyway

Without the steady drip from the morphine IV I’m sure I wouldn’t be trying these crazy trades

Took AAPL short @ 140.48 (DayTrade)
Took SNDK LONG @ 56.15 (DayTrade)

10:51   Bernanke says a decline in home prices could curb consumer spending by $0.04-0.09 per dollar - Reuters

Ayyyy lock up your children! There’s gonna be a melt-down somewhere!

What a pointless remark, and what a pointless headline.

In other news, SomeOtherEconomist said that if people have less money to spend, they’ll spend less. Of course, nobody is saying home prices will decline, but apparently if they do, people will spend less. Hang on though, if home prices go down, then presumably new home buyers will have lower mortgage payments, so they’ll have more money to spend, but apparently nobody bothered to think about that - surprise surprise.

Anyhoo, markets didn’t like that and are selling off a bit. It’ll probably be forgotten about by lunchtime.

[quote author=“Quadra”]Without the steady drip from the morphine IV I’m sure I wouldn’t be trying these crazy trades

Took AAPL short @ 140.48 (DayTrade)
Took SNDK LONG @ 56.15 (DayTrade)

You are not alone

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]10:51   Bernanke says a decline in home prices could curb consumer spending by $0.04-0.09 per dollar - Reuters

Ayyyy lock up your children! There’s gonna be a melt-down somewhere!

What a pointless remark, and what a pointless headline.

In other news, SomeOtherEconomist said that if people have less money to spend, they’ll spend less. Of course, nobody is saying home prices will decline, but apparently if they do, people will spend less. Hang on though, if home prices go down, then presumably new home buyers will have lower mortgage payments, so they’ll have more money to spend, but apparently nobody bothered to think about that - surprise surprise.

Anyhoo, markets didn’t like that and are selling off a bit. It’ll probably be forgotten about by lunchtime.

Is not even true that home prices are declining, at least in my neighborhood.  Prices are hitting new all-time highs just like AAPL.  One thing I know about trend of home prices is if employment rate is high and payroll is rising, there is no way that home prices would decline.  Another thing is home prices tend to rise with a weakening dollar.  Hence, for places where there are a lot of immigrants and/or favored by foreigners, prices would also increase when dollar is weakening.  What this mean, local would sell their home at high prices to foreigners and move to places where home prices are lower (may be declining, like ?  Texas? Florida?  I don’t know.  Median price for US is about $200,000 whereas it is over $800,000 in my neighborhood).  Ultimately, more $ to spend .

Let’s not lose sight of the LT/big picture

Been busy with too many guests and too much summer stuff to post…...but been reading them all at very late night hrs. Off to Maui on Sat for 2 weeks and will stay hooked to AFB, as usual.

IMO, AAPL is a 12-18 month play at this time. TOMMO continues to be the person I listen to, because of that longer term focus, and belief that trading AAPL here is tough to do.

Anyway, I have had people here in the chip design/packaging/software business, top 3 computer manu business all way out in front senior tech guys, who have been at the forefront of silicon valley for decades. These guys are still in as investors and players/mentors and CEO’s. I believe that AAPL is gonna be tough to beat here. The best and brightest from the best schools (Masters candidates are flocking to GOOG and AAPL vs. MSFT, HP, DELL etc) and this is mostly a past 2-3 yrs thing.

What has come out so far from AAPL is not from the new cream of the crop but mostly from the past teams (still great people). The stuff yet to come will be from the seasoned pros of the past with the creme de la creme of the past 2 yrs. Most of this will be seen in the next 18-30 months, in my opinion.

One tidbit, we need to watch AAPL’s supply chain.

Oh, and one more thing, I do not think RIMM is ready to become a short just yet!

Re: Let’s not lose sight of the LT/big picture

[quote author=“quantman”]Been busy with too many guests and too much summer stuff to post…...but been reading them all at very late night hrs. Off to Maui on Sat for 2 weeks and will stay hooked to AFB, as usual.

IMO, AAPL is a 12-18 month play at this time. TOMMO continues to be the person I listen to, because of that longer term focus, and belief that trading AAPL here is tough to do.

Anyway, I have had people here in the chip design/packaging/software business, top 3 computer manu business all way out in front senior tech guys, who have been at the forefront of silicon valley for decades. These guys are still in as investors and players/mentors and CEO’s. I believe that AAPL is gonna be tough to beat here. The best and brightest from the best schools (Masters candidates are flocking to GOOG and AAPL vs. MSFT, HP, DELL etc) and this is mostly a past 2-3 yrs thing.

What has come out so far from AAPL is not from the new cream of the crop but mostly from the past teams (still great people). The stuff yet to come will be from the seasoned pros of the past with the creme de la creme of the past 2 yrs. Most of this will be seen in the next 18-30 months, in my opinion.

One tidbit, we need to watch AAPL’s supply chain.

Oh, and one more thing, I do not think RIMM is ready to become a short just yet!

Very interesting Q.  Can you be a bit more specific regarding the comment “...we need to watch AAPL’s supply chain.”?

Re: Let’s not lose sight of the LT/big picture

[quote author=“dmcnair”][quote author=“quantman”]Been busy with too many guests and too much summer stuff to post…...but been reading them all at very late night hrs. Off to Maui on Sat for 2 weeks and will stay hooked to AFB, as usual.

IMO, AAPL is a 12-18 month play at this time. TOMMO continues to be the person I listen to, because of that longer term focus, and belief that trading AAPL here is tough to do.

Anyway, I have had people here in the chip design/packaging/software business, top 3 computer manu business all way out in front senior tech guys, who have been at the forefront of silicon valley for decades. These guys are still in as investors and players/mentors and CEO’s. I believe that AAPL is gonna be tough to beat here. The best and brightest from the best schools (Masters candidates are flocking to GOOG and AAPL vs. MSFT, HP, DELL etc) and this is mostly a past 2-3 yrs thing.

What has come out so far from AAPL is not from the new cream of the crop but mostly from the past teams (still great people). The stuff yet to come will be from the seasoned pros of the past with the creme de la creme of the past 2 yrs. Most of this will be seen in the next 18-30 months, in my opinion.

One tidbit, we need to watch AAPL’s supply chain.

Oh, and one more thing, I do not think RIMM is ready to become a short just yet!

Very interesting Q.  Can you be a bit more specific regarding the comment “...we need to watch AAPL’s supply chain.”?

1. Can’t unfortunately. It’s just a light comment. People are in the business.

2. All I’m saying is we need to watch this, and that is all. AAPL is great with their supply chain mgmt, but as we approach the holiday season we need to pool info and thoughts. This industry, as we all know, is very fast moving industry.

Oh, and one more thing. I am expecting gaming, in a signifcant way, both on iPhone and ipods in the next 18 months, but not anytime in the next 6 months. This I have a high degree of confidence in, for what it’s worth.

The supply chain on the MacBook Pro LED models is currently a problem, either due to difficulty ramping up for demand, or technical issues (quality control) with the new screens. I’m not sure when the shipping delays began, so it’s possible the earnings report next week may not be covering that time frame. And by the next report we should expect the delays to be over.

all out blitz

Here’s a great anti-FUD piece about apple planning an all out blitz for the holidays.  a MUST read.