I can’t help but feel that good news leading up to earnings will continue to push the stock, until they offer their usual guidance after market close on Wednesday, at which point the stock will temporarily tank. 
Of course every time I’ve felt this way in the past, and exited my position around earnings, have been the times it hasn’t happened

[quote author=“jimlongo”]Of course every time I’ve felt this way in the past, and exited my position around earnings, have been the times it hasn’t happened

Now that you’ve set yourself up as a contrarian indicator, please reassure us by telling us that you have exited your position

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“jimlongo”]Of course every time I’ve felt this way in the past, and exited my position around earnings, have been the times it hasn’t happened

Now that you’ve set yourself up as a contrarian indicator, please reassure us by telling us that you have exited your position

I’ll report on Wednesday, just to give you a head’s up!

Here is my gut feeling.

ATT reports great iPhone sales.  Apple runs up to 150 by Wed.

The they announce earnings and give conservative guidance and the street panics at lower then expected iPod sales.  The stock then goes back to 142 or so and stays in that trading range until mid Sept.

We will soon see if that plays out.

Last qt after earnings the stock took off.  The street saw the growth in Macs and took notice.  If we see 1.9 million macs and 9.7 million iPods along with 1.5 million iPhones then we are off to the races for the stock will hit $150+ after earnings.

[quote author=“omacvi”]
Last qt after earnings the stock took off.  The street saw the growth in Macs and took notice.  If we see 1.9 million macs and 9.7 million iPods along with 1.5 million iPhones then we are off to the races for the stock will hit $150+ after earnings.

If we see 1.9 million macs, 9.7 million iPods and 1.5 million iPhones sold this quarter we would get earnings around - oh what - $1.20 per share?

It’s a fools game to predict post-earnings action, especially with AAPL at these levels. The advice to lighten up a little for margin/cautious players makes sense. And remember, our trading decisions are lastly driven by our ability to cope with certain positions:
even though staying all-in may be the best way to go longterm, I wouldn’t feel comfortable and thus I have to adjust. Another person’s level of comfort may be higher or lower, etc…

So you agree that the stock will take off if earnings come in at 1.20
and tank if any of those products do not live up to expectations when it comes to sales.

[quote author=“omacvi”]So you agree that the stock will take off if earnings come in at 1.20
and tank if any of those products do not live up to expectations when it comes to sales.

earnings at $1.20 would probably send the stock stratospheric unless Cook and Oppenheimer choose to be all doom-and-gloom, forecasting plunging margins, horrible sales, etc… (just like in Jan 06 )
But let me emphasise that earnings have lost their meaning if investors do not get to hear what they want about the iPhone!

Don’t forget: analysts want details, something they can wrap their head around
Anyone wants to play a part in a success, be it sponsors of a sportsteam who want some acknowledgement for their “tremendous help” (and deep pockets), or… analysts who want to be “in the know” of details in order to be able to project effortlessly (Tommo astutely named it the “Eureka effect” )
Nowadays, Apple leaves them in complete darkness, and only a few (or only one: Gene Munster) dig a little deeper and try to understand the company