I sincerely believe the 146K “activations” number to be a complete canard and totally unrepresentative of the actual number of iPhones sold.

We’ll find out tomorrow, when Apple will tell us exactly how many were sold in the last 36 hours of Q3.

I continue to believe that in the first month, Apple has sold between 750K - 1M phones. We won’t find that out until October though, when Q4 is reported

My belief is iphone daily sales decelerated in weeks 3 & 4 from the first 2 weeks pent up demand… (based on my own channel checks of 3 Apple stores and 3 ATT stores I’ve visited several times since the intro)  I believe sales will begin accelerating again in the fall late Aug-Sept, when everyone is back off vacation in the office and showing off their new iphones.  Until then new ipod and imac announcements should keep the faithful busy buying Apple’s wares…

So how am I investing now?

I’m anticipating a buying opportunity after earnings and prior to the imac intro and will buy/sell accordingly. 

By the way, that CIBC analyst who said he thought iPhone sales had dropped significantly the last 10 days? He’s never covered AAPL . In fact, guess what: he covers RIMM. He’s a RIMM analyst.

What’s he doing “covering” AAPL here anyway? You can bet it isn’t out of charity or personal interest.

RIMM shill.

Here’s another thing: analysts are forgetting that AFAIK, Apple books unit sales when the product enters the channel, not when the consumer buys the product in the store.

All iPhones in the channel by Saturday June 30th are booked as sold in Q3 irrespective of whenever the hell they were activated.

In other words, if Apple had shipped 300K, or 400K, or 500K - howevermanyK - iPhones into AT&T’s warehouses and its own Apple Stores by June 30th, then tomorrow’s number is going to be whatever than number is - not 146K.

Tomorrow’s number is going to handily beat these now much-lowered expectations.

This is probably a buying opportunity pre-earnings.

It’s hard to argue with the IMEI numbers harvested on IV, which strongly suggest Tommo’s figure of 750K-1M. I also fits with 200-300K the first weekend, with 75% being activated within 12 hours of purchase. This in turn suggests to me Apple is able to drive about 4M new customers a year to AT&T wireless.

The iPhone is the 3rd most popular item on the online Apple Store, above the Shuffle and below the nano.

That doesn’t suggest slack demand to me.

I agree with Tommo that the activation figures well under represent sales figures. I bought my iPhone at 6:15, from an ATT store on the 29th. I experienced what a disaster they were in checking customers out, how slow their servers were and how poorly trained much of their sales force were. I have little faith in the credibility of their figures. I attempted to activate my iPhone around 7 pm but didn’t get my confirmation email until 24 hours later. That would’ve been later then 10 pm eastern time. I’m doubtful, therefore, that someone like me is included in these figures and I was #15 in our line! I would bet that a good proportion of West
coast activations never happened before the cut off time for these counts.

I think this morning was a wonderful buying opportunity (I bought more August 135 calls) and AAPL’s numbers will be very different then T’s.

good assessment of the AT&T numbers over at motleyfool.
fool article

Here’s the part I liked:

Look, even if 146,000 subscribers isn’t a lot by iPhone standards—some estimates were for 700,000 phones sold during the opening weekend—most of that took place over just 30 hours. (AT&T and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) opened at 6 p.m. on June 29 to begin sales.) That’s 4,867 phones activated per hour.

I know it’s been said somewhere, but since I don’t see anyone mentioning it in this thread…  All online Apple Store sales would also not be accounted for in the AT&T number.  I don’t know how many people are like me.  I always buy my Apples online. 

[quote author=“macglenn”]I know it’s been said somewhere, but since I don’t see anyone mentioning it in this thread…  All online Apple Store sales would also not be accounted for in the AT&T number.  I don’t know how many people are like me.  I always buy my Apples online. 

They won’t be in Apple’s own Q3 numbers either, as online orders didn’t start shipping until late July, and thus don’t count towards Q3 sales.

now we get the ‘‘Fast Money’’ guys Apple trade

Analysts are truly a funny breed. They remind me of my wife when she asks a question, answers it on my behalf, and gets mad at the answer. Case in point, our favorite subject iPhone sales, analyst’s euphoria kept them upping each other till they reached 700,000 units sold over the first two days or weekend. Mind you, not single one showed real analysis. When ATT announced the real numbers of 146K activations, they are suddenly unhappy!

That’s the truth!

http://gigaom.com/2007/07/24/iphone-and-the-analyst-delusions/

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Here’s another thing: analysts are forgetting that AFAIK, Apple books unit sales when the product enters the channel, not when the consumer buys the product in the store.

All iPhones in the channel by Saturday June 30th are booked as sold in Q3 irrespective of whenever the hell they were activated.

In other words, if Apple had shipped 300K, or 400K, or 500K - howevermanyK - iPhones into AT&T’s warehouses and its own Apple Stores by June 30th, then tomorrow’s number is going to be whatever than number is - not 146K.

Any evidence for that? Some companies account for sales that way, but not all (e.g., auto manufacturers, I believe, account for actual sales).

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Here’s another thing: analysts are forgetting that AFAIK, Apple books unit sales when the product enters the channel, not when the consumer buys the product in the store.

Is there any way to verify that?

[quote author=“Intruder”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Here’s another thing: analysts are forgetting that AFAIK, Apple books unit sales when the product enters the channel, not when the consumer buys the product in the store.

Is there any way to verify that?

It’s actaully a common accounting practice - this is why it’s called “channel stuffing” or selling more into the channel than the channel really needs, when a company shows an artificial spike in sales.

I believe Tommo is spot-on here.

HAB

[quote author=“HotAirBaffoon”]
It’s actaully a common accounting practice - this is why it’s called “channel stuffing” or selling more into the channel than the channel really needs, when a company shows an artificial spike in sales.

I believe Tommo is spot-on here.

Yes, it’s common, but, that doesn’t quite answer the question of whether Apple uses that accounting method. It might be more likely considering that, unlike Dell, Apple has multiple channels—Apple retail stores, the online Apple store, online retailers and brick-and-mortar retailers. If I have time this week, I’ll ask my local Mac dealer (not an Apple store) if they report sales to Apple.