What are we looking at for Mac unit shipments this quarter? Should we expect little change sequentially or a real blow-out quarter sequentially and YOY?

Re: Mac Unit Shipments

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]What are we looking at for Mac unit shipments this quarter? Should we expect little change sequentially or a real blow-out quarter sequentially and YOY?

I’m using 2.05M in my model, but with recent news I think we may see 2.1M - 2.25M.

Most reports have MacBooks/Pro selling exceptionally well and the iMacs not growing much, but those reports were from before the iMac refresh. Article out of New Zealand stated demand was astronomical and the biggest reseller there could not get enough supply.

HAB

2.05 million units would be amazing. That doesn’t, however, jive with Apple’s guidance on revenue and would lead to a huge upside earnings surprise.

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)—Persistent delays in laptop shipments caused by paint problems and supply constraints have put a crimp in Dell Inc.‘s (DELL) turnaround efforts.

As a result, shares of the Round Rock, Texas, computer maker have recently hit a snag, interrupting what had been a solid rebound over the past several months. The stock is down 11% from its July 17 high, although it still remains 20% above its 2007 low set in March.

The gain in stock price reflects the company’s strides in trying to move past its accounting issues, management turnover and competitive pressures. But the latest incident, involving delays of its Inspiron, Latitude and XPS M1330 lines of notebook computers during the crucial back-to-school selling season, marks a significant setback to its push to rebuild its brand and business.

“You want to be perceived as a winner and a good company,” said Daniel Renouard, an analyst for Robert W. Baird & Co. “The view that Dell is now a struggling vendor doesn’t really help.”

Some laptop orders have been delayed until October, according to a report on the Financial Times’ Web site. Over the past month, Dell has attempted to quell the mounting frustration over the delays by addressing the issue in its company blog. In early August, Alex Gruzen, who heads up the consumer-product group, cited problems with the different paint colors used as the company increased production volume. In addition, Gruzen cited a shortage in light-emitting diode backlit liquid-crystal displays.

“Our vendors are ramping production as quickly as possible, but these displays continue to be in short supply,” Gruzen wrote in a post.

The glass shortage largely stems from Asian suppliers, and some analysts believe the issue is affecting other computer makers.

“I do think it’s a broader industry issue and not Dell-specific,” said Matthew Kather, an analyst for WR Hambrecht & Co. “Early reports are that the supply chain is experiencing a big bottleneck in notebooks.”

DigiTimes, a Taiwanese newspaper, warned earlier this month that the computer makers would face constraints in component supplies.

Dell, meanwhile, acknowledged the issue.

“We believe there are industrywide supply constraints, but what matters is that we are doing everything possible to deliver systems to our customers as soon as possible,” said spokesman Bob Pearson.

Somehow I think it’s more likely that the shortage is due to Apple having locked up a large amount of materials for the new iMacs and Apple laptops rather than a shortage that’s going to affect the “whole industry”.

I think we might see something close to a 40% gain in laptop sales Y/Y.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]2.05 million units would be amazing. That doesn’t, however, jive with Apple’s guidance on revenue and would lead to a huge upside earnings surprise.

Too early to tell as there is still 50% of the quarter yet to happen….

However, I am betting that over 2M units will happen and that EPS will be greater than $1/shr (perhaps as high as $1.05/shr).

Should be at least 12cents/shr add vs. last yr (if one does the math and keeps ipod sales as same as last qtr and assumes 0 cents add from iPhone eps contribution and no change in margins).

While gross margins may not increase due to component cost increases, the remainder of the fixed costs will be spread over a much larger revenue base thus canceling out the component cost hit to margins).

[quote author=“quantman”]While gross margins may not increase due to component cost increases, the remainder of the fixed costs will be spread over a much larger revenue base thus canceling out the component cost hit to margins).

A point often missed by analysts.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]2.05 million units would be amazing. That doesn’t, however, jive with Apple’s guidance on revenue and would lead to a huge upside earnings surprise.

Yes, but when has anything AAPL has guided jived with what they end up reporting at the end of the quarter?

HAB

Apple has been trending 30-36% year over year growth in unit sales. Based on this, I averaged it out to 33% Y/y growth.

Q4 06: 1.61M Macs

Q4 07 estimate: 2.14M Macs sold.

Again, this is based on consistent growth. If today’s reports are to be believed, we could see an even larger number of Macs sold.

[quote author=“CdnPhoto”]Apple has been trending 30-36% year over year growth in unit sales. Based on this, I averaged it out to 33% Y/y growth.

Q4 06: 1.61M Macs

Q4 07 estimate: 2.14M Macs sold.

Again, this is based on consistent growth. If today’s reports are to be believed, we could see an even larger number of Macs sold.

Welcome aboard CdnPhoto thanks for your input and hope you post often… btw Apple 1st quarter is Oct/Dec which is fiscal 4th quarter you refer to

Shaw Wu’s comments
Fourth quarter Apple Mac and iPhone sales ahead of expectations

[quote author=“SNIPUS”][quote author=“CdnPhoto”]Apple has been trending 30-36% year over year growth in unit sales. Based on this, I averaged it out to 33% Y/y growth.

Q4 06: 1.61M Macs

Q4 07 estimate: 2.14M Macs sold.

Again, this is based on consistent growth. If today’s reports are to be believed, we could see an even larger number of Macs sold.

Welcome aboard CdnPhoto thanks for your input and hope you post often… btw Apple 1st quarter is Oct/Dec which is fiscal 4th quarter you refer to

Thanks for the welcome. Actually, I am quoting FQ04, not CQ04. I got the numbers from Apple’s financial statements.

Apple’s laptop market share 17.6%.

“According to NPD Research, Apple’s retail notebook market share stands at 17.6 percent for June 2007, Macworld reports.

The group notes that this translates to a 2.2 percent increase in one year as Apple had a 15.4 percent market share in June 2006.

Research firm IDC reports that Apple is climbing in the overall computer manufacturers ranking thanks to its constant surge in computer sales. It places Apple Inc as the third largest computer manufacturer in the world.”

http://www.looprumors.com/article.php?apples-laptop-market-share-176,2836109793

more good news.

I am a Tax Accountant. (US) I was at an Income Tax convention in June. Not that many people brought their laptops into the convention, but of those that I saw in the hotel lobby I would say that there were nearly 60% Mac laptops. There were many non-accountants there. I know that this is a small sample, but I do believe that the real numbers may be much higher than is being reported.

[quote author=“payrolldude”]I am a Tax Accountant. (US) I was at an Income Tax convention in June. Not that many people brought their laptops into the convention, but of those that I saw in the hotel lobby I would say that there were nearly 60% Mac laptops. There were many non-accountants there. I know that this is a small sample, but I do believe that the real numbers may be much higher than is being reported.

It is also a fact that Mac owners tend to show their laptops in public much more than owners of PC laptops, so the real numbers must be in between.

And don’t forget the MacBook and MacBook Pro owners who upgrade to a newer (faster) model and sell their previous machine on eBay or to a friend. The pool of owners is much larger than typically reported if one bases those figures only on purchases of new machines.

[quote author=“CdnPhoto”]Apple has been trending 30-36% year over year growth in unit sales. Based on this, I averaged it out to 33% Y/y growth.

Q4 06: 1.61M Macs

Q4 07 estimate: 2.14M Macs sold.

Again, this is based on consistent growth. If today’s reports are to be believed, we could see an even larger number of Macs sold.

I agree. 2.1-2.2 Million Macs for the Sep Qtr seems to be in the cards.

If this happens, Sep qtr EPS could be greater than $1.05, maybe as high as $1.08!

Yikes!