CFC announced major layoffs of upto 25% of their workforce, after the closing bell, as many of you already know.

One item in their disclosure worth thinking about:
CFC expects their mortgage origination volumes in all of ‘08 to be less than 25% of ‘07 (5 months of ‘07 will be impacted by recent events, we should note. So, 25% on top of that YOY).

Since CFC is the largest mortgage originator in the country, it may be worthwhile thinking about the implications on this on the entire real estate industry’s ecosystem and both direct/indirect impact on consumer spending.

Anyone here for no Fed rate cuts? Please speak up or forever hold your peace!

MtDoc, BTW when a patient in sick why do Docs have to intervene and treat them? Why not let the immune system and nature handle it?

Everything we have in the financial markets was created by man. The paper, the coins, THE SYSTEM. Man is an psychological animal and THE SYSTEM left to it itself can and will self-destruct. At some point it absolutely will. Our only goal as a species is to try and prolong that certain destiny, as long as we possibly can, like a single life-form’s natural death.

I was impressed by the fact that the major averages were way down, and AAPL managed to finish near it’s supporting 50MA.  I’m sure many noticed that early in the day when AAPL dropped to the round figure of 130, it sat on top of it for almost a minute without going a penny lower (strong support there). Later the Dow was down almost 300 and the Nasdaq 60 and the stock took it in stride.  It was quite different yesterday.  In spite of today’s overwhelming jobs report, I added to my position a little (after having sold some yesterday).  If the market starts out with big drops on Monday, I am prepared to see Apple descend into the mid or even low 120s but, after all, we are being paid to take risks.  Now if we can just get some good articles over the weekend…

[quote author=“quantman”]
MtDoc, BTW when a patient in sick why do Docs have to intervene and treat them? Why not let the immune system and nature handle it?

Sometimes we do. Sometimes no treatment is best. One of the most important directives for any doctor is “First, do no harm”.

In case there is any confusion, I’m not at all opposed to the Fed cutting rates if we are indeed in or shortly headed into a recession. What I am opposed to is the Fed lowering rates to save speculators -especially in a climate of a very weak dollar.

I also find it amusing that the same people (like Larry Kudlow) who complain about Fed intervention and tout free-market ethos during market run-ups are the same ones who whine about the need for a rate cut as soon as the market falls 5% off its highs. The “Greenspan put” was a bad idea and we’re paying the price now. Let’s hope a Bernanke put is not what’s needed to save the markets - if so I fear an even greater price will have to be paid in the future.

[quote author=“mtdoc”]
I also find it amusing that the same people (like Larry Kudlow) who complain about Fed intervention and tout free-market ethos during market run-ups are the same ones who whine about the need for a rate cut as soon as the market falls 5% off its highs. The “Greenspan put” was a bad idea and we’re paying the price now. Let’s hope a Bernanke put is not what’s needed to save the markets - if so I fear an even greater price will have to be paid in the future.

Very well said. Larry touts his free market capitalism every day, and then turns right around and takes the opposite position. His program is great though…

[quote author=“mtdoc”][quote author=“quantman”]
MtDoc, BTW when a patient in sick why do Docs have to intervene and treat them? Why not let the immune system and nature handle it?

Sometimes we do. Sometimes no treatment is best. One of the most important directives for any doctor is “First, do no harm”.

In case there is any confusion, I’m not at all opposed to the Fed cutting rates if we are indeed in or shortly headed into a recession. What I am opposed to is the Fed lowering rates to save speculators -especially in a climate of a very weak dollar.

I also find it amusing that the same people (like Larry Kudlow) who complain about Fed intervention and tout free-market ethos during market run-ups are the same ones who whine about the need for a rate cut as soon as the market falls 5% off its highs. The “Greenspan put” was a bad idea and we’re paying the price now. Let’s hope a Bernanke put is not what’s needed to save the markets - if so I fear an even greater price will have to be paid in the future.

MtDoc: FYI, I agree with every single thing you said in the above post.

I believe the unregulated and untracked derivatives markets are a bit of a house of cards and one day it will rupture at a not so good location.

The bigger problem for us, Western Europe and Japan is all of our aging demographics. That may undo us before anything else does. That, and in the US, our poor education standards will be a double whammy. I project some serious brain drain (of returning folks) from here back to China and India in the next 5-15 years, just as the negative impact of the our demos kick in.

[quote author=“quantman”] ... I project some serious brain drain (of returning folks) from here back to China and India in the next 5-15 years ...

Please elaborate.

Lots of personal anecdotal info.

As their economies kick in, the salaries/compensation they get in their own countries will soon rival what they get here.

The growth rate in opportunities there will also be higher.

A very large/significant % of these sets of folks will prefer to live in their countries with a higher standard of liviing there, vs. here. From what I know, anecdotally, something like 20-40% of these folks would prefer to live in their own countries/cultures with all of their extended families and friends, if comp levels were close to equal. Particularly as they get beyond 45-50 yrs old.

quantman,

My personal anecdotes is consistent with what you think qualitatively.  What I mean is why 5-15 years?  And not now?  Reverse brain drain back to China and India has already started.

Brain - Not just hi tech folks.  All trades and professions.

[quote author=“Mace”]quantman,

My personal anecdotes is consistent with what you think qualitatively.  What I mean is why 5-15 years?  And not now?  Reverse brain drain back to China and India has already started.

Brain - Not just hi tech folks.  All trades and professions.

The universities and infrastructure here is still better. Many here have their kids in schools and universities.

What’s happening in China and India will take another 5 yrs or so to really mature. Many are moving already, I agree. However, the critical mass in terms of net % drain will not be that huge until about that timeframe, IMO.

I agree this is not just hi-tech folks. However, docs and nurses will move not move yet because payscales for these professions in their home countries is a fraction of what it is here and probably will be for many years.

[quote author=“quantman”][quote author=“Mace”]quantman,

My personal anecdotes is consistent with what you think qualitatively.  What I mean is why 5-15 years?  And not now?  Reverse brain drain back to China and India has already started.

Brain - Not just hi tech folks.  All trades and professions.

The universities and infrastructure here is still better. Many here have their kids in schools and universities.

What’s happening in China and India will take another 5 yrs or so to really mature. Many are moving already, I agree. However, the critical mass in terms of net % drain will not be that huge until about that timeframe, IMO.

I agree this is not just hi-tech folks. However, docs and nurses will move not move yet because payscales for these professions in their home countries is a fraction of what it is here and probably will be for many years.

I wouldn’t worry too much.  Yes I’m sure many will go back to India but a good percentage will choose to stay.  It is a very common thing for Indians to come here with the intention of staying 5 years or so to make some money but after a few years many find it hard to go back.  Yes it’s true that the pay rate is getting much better over there and the standard of living is improving but they have a long way to go.  Speaking as a Indian who was born in this country I’ve been back several times ... no matter how much money you have there are some things that you just cannot get over ... Population and Pollution being two major things. 

Over 35 years ago my Mother and Father had every intention of going back .... my folks are still here ....

It is also a lot easier to stay in this country and not lose touch with your country of origin.  A simple example ... I grew up in Texas ... Dallas to be exact .. I remember in the mid 70s’ as a kid there were NO Indian grocery stores ... we had to drive 4 hrs. to Houston ... when we would go my folks would buy as much stuff as they could fit into the car ... now there are Indian grocery stores, Movie theaters, Temples, clothing stores ... you name it.  They get all of the best Indian TV channels on their Sat dish ... really amazing ... in any case the point is it’s getting easier and easier for people to move here and still get all of the “comforts” of home…...

[quote author=“quantman”][quote author=“Mace”]quantman,

My personal anecdotes is consistent with what you think qualitatively.  What I mean is why 5-15 years?  And not now?  Reverse brain drain back to China and India has already started.

Brain - Not just hi tech folks.  All trades and professions.

The universities and infrastructure here is still better. Many here have their kids in schools and universities.

What’s happening in China and India will take another 5 yrs or so to really mature. Many are moving already, I agree. However, the critical mass in terms of net % drain will not be that huge until about that timeframe, IMO.

I agree this is not just hi-tech folks. However, docs and nurses will move not move yet because payscales for these professions in their home countries is a fraction of what it is here and probably will be for many years.

Really intersting points here.

I think the problem is not a “brain drain” per se.  But the top schools are churning out more and more foreign nationals that will decide not to remain in the US in the longer term.  The problem is they have to supplement the people leaving the workforce with service/high value jobs.

This is the classical self selection problem where you get a portion of the best and brightest (and well connecte) wanting to go to the emerging market (which also happens to be their homes in some cases).  The remaining will be less qualified and not as productive. 

With an ageing economy, immigration is really the key.  If you want to see the US in the future, look at Japan…  Their demos and immigration policy (or non-immigration policy) will have extreme consequences in the very near future.

Look at the SP500 companies that have out performed.  There is no co-incidence that the global companies are outperforming….

Sounds a bit like being a Mac user when I first came over - having to drive to Miami or Orlando… These days 2 stores within 15 miles!

I went into the Kingston Apple Store at midday to buy a 160Gb Ipod.  Ever the pessimist, I asked if I was the first to buy one (they only came in today).  The assistant looked at me as if I was mad and then said that they had been “selling like hot cakes all morning!”

Come on chaps!  Cheer up! We are on the way up!

Emoticons are fine and they add context. No probs with that.

Perhaps you are bit of a serious bloke.

Well, you may be onto something certainly, but one of the problems I have is that I do not understand English slang, because I never lived in an English speaking country, and all my knowledge of English comes from attending classes at English teaching schools. This not only limits my ability to fully understand some jokes or second meanings but also makes me unable to write in a different manner than in a formal way, probably making me to seem more “serious” than I really am. So I consider it my fault after all. No offence taken.   

I was browsing Google News -> section -> Most Popular and Apple is at the moment (of writing this) on the 4th place with -> 2,103 related articles and one of them is an article from The Street saying-> Why Apple Got It Right . The article also links to a summary of analyst comments.

At the end of these analyst comments I believe we also have Tommo’s infamous THi friend from Global Equities Research

Despite the Barron’s nonsense pieces, it looks like the newsflow is starting to turn in favour of Apple.