[quote author=“carbonat”]However, most news feeds have a negative tone. Let’s see if this is one of the typical premarket ups followed by normal hours drop. I hope not.
Most news feeds that give an opinion often try to explain what has happened which then twists their future predictions in the direction of whatever has just occurred.
It’s not just the newsfeeds, but some analysts do this. For example let’s just look at AC Research’s recent AAPL notes.
NEW YORK, August 31 (newratings.com) – Analyst Henning Wagener of AC Research reiterates his “accumulate” rating on Apple Inc (AAPL.NAS).
According to AC Research’s research note dated August 30 and published this morning, the company has scheduled a press conference on September 5. On this occasion, Apple will probably present a new iPod product line, possibly including the video iPod with a broad format display. Apple is also likely to announce the introduction of the Beatles catalogue into the iTunes Store.
While the company is in a planned cooperation with Volkswagen with respect to vehicle design, concrete plans have not yet been published in this respect. It seems probable, though, that a small car equipped with Apple products could meet with a lot of interest particularly among a younger group of customers, the analyst says. More detailed information is unliky to be revealed at the September 5 press conference. In all, Apple’s future business perspectives are rated rather positive. The analyst expects the probable launch of a new iPod family to boost iPod sales going ahead. Particularly against the backdrop of the upcoming Christmas business, this is very positive news, according to AC Research. At Wednesday’s closing price of $134.08 and a 2007/2008 P/E ratio of roughly 30, the company’s stock still seems to enjoy a rather moderate rating. Considering the elevated iPhone and iPod marketing potential, the company is expected to deliver a healthy performance over the next few quarters, the analyst says. Moreover, “Apple TV” is making for some additional fantasy. The company has announced plans to offer the TV series of big US broadcasting companies in the British iTunes Store. In the long run, this offer is scheduled to appear in Germany as well. AC Research reiterates its “accumulate” rating on Apple.
And then:
NEW YORK, September 7 (newratings.com) – Analyst Henning Wagener of AC Research downgrades Apple Inc (AAPL.NAS) from “accumulate” to “hold.”
According to AC Research’s research note dated September 6 and published this morning, the company has announced a significant price reduction for iPhone. The mobile phone’s price has been reduced by $200 to $399. The analyst believes that the price reduction indicates that iPhone sales have been lower than expected and has been introduced to boost sales. Apple has offered no explanation for the price reduction. The company also has not disclosed its latest sales results.
Moreover, the company has revised the iPod MP3 player and presented the iPod Touch, which has a touch sensitive screen and may access the internet via WLAN. Another new Apple product is the iPod Nano video function. With Wednesday’s closing price of $136.76 and a 207/2008 P/E ratio of about 30, the company’s stock currently seems to enjoy a rather adequate rating, considering the minor concerns with the iPhone. The analyst adds, however, that the iPhone still has significant market potential. Apple should also be able to further expand its market position with the new iPod Touch and the iPod Nano. Until the start of the holiday season business, Apple plans to have all models from the iPod series revised. Against this backdrop, the analyst expects the company to witness healthy holiday business. AC Research downgrades Apple “accumulate” to “hold.”
So all that optimism from the first note disappears because the iPhone is redirected at the wider market and the Beatles didn’t feature (although I still think their catalogue is coming). Clearly this analyst is not doing much analysis, but instead bases his views on how the wind is blowing.