Larry Kudlow also raised this concern on his CNBC show today!

I believe next yrs elections and current challenges and opportunities facing each of the parties may play a role here, if history is a guide.

I have been hearing this now for some time….

Re: Oil prices and any new Iran development impact on global

[quote author=“quantman”]Larry Kudlow also raised this concern on his CNBC show today!

I believe next yrs elections and current challenges and opportunities facing each of the parties may play a role here, if history is a guide.

I have been hearing this now for some time….

I’m sure strategic plans have been made. That doesn’t mean a bombing will happen. It just means the US can subtly and less-than-subtly make mention of the possibility in negotiations and discussions. At least for now.

There isn’t a major presidential candidate in the game for either party who wouldn’t seek to have this option active and available.

Seymour Hersch has been covering this issue, among others, for the New Yorker Magazine. Three revealing articles if you want to read more on the subject:

The Iran Plans

The Next Act

The Redirection

Re: Oil prices and any new Iran development impact on global

[quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“quantman”]Larry Kudlow also raised this concern on his CNBC show today!

I believe next yrs elections and current challenges and opportunities facing each of the parties may play a role here, if history is a guide.

I have been hearing this now for some time….

I’m sure strategic plans have been made. That doesn’t mean a bombing will happen. It just means the US can subtly and less-than-subtly make mention of the possibility in negotiations and discussions. At least for now.

There isn’t a major presidential candidate in the game for either party who wouldn’t seek to have this option active and available.

Oh, yes! The religious fanatics who run Iran are going to get scared and do a deal because they think we might bomb their nuclear ops or because we kinda threaten to (which can’t produce didly squat)! These people are scared of dying or getting hurt….they are so shy, timid and reallly really scaredy-cats!

Come on now, they will just use this to do the only thing they passionately care about, which is to engage us in a decades long war. If we bomb we will have been the aggressor, without any UN auth and this will be the green light for them to respond. This also gurantees them their political hold over Iran for decades. There’s nothing like attacking a country that gets its 100M people together in a jiffy!

Let’s say that they did not scare and we did bomb their nuclear ops. What then? Are these Iranian religious fanatics going to say: Oh, my God!, Let’s do a deal now?!

No, they will retaliate! In Iraq, In Afhanistan and elsewhere! For them, sacrificing 100K-500K of their religious fanatic faithful means nothing! These guys don’t think like us!

This strategy, in my view, shows clearly what the current admin simply does not get about these people, what they really want and what they really care about.

The only way to solve this through any means of force, where we could possibly win is to nuke them ourselves, completely, something I don’t think we have the balls to do, proactively.

So, this is simply nuts, from a game theory standpoint!

Re: Oil prices and any new Iran development impact on global

[quote author=“quantman”]only way to solve this through any means of force, where we could possibly win is to nuke them ourselves, completely, something I don’t think we have the balls to do, proactively.

Am I reading correctly that you think pre-emptively nuking Iran is a good idea?

Re: Oil prices and any new Iran development impact on global

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“quantman”]only way to solve this through any means of force, where we could possibly win is to nuke them ourselves, completely, something I don’t think we have the balls to do, proactively.

Am I reading correctly that you think pre-emptively nuking Iran is a good idea?

No, I’m saying unless we are prepared to that, any other means of military engagement, or limited strike will be a major, major disaster for all - for a very very long time!

Nothing besides a total nuclear take-out is winnable, from a game-theory standpoint.

Re: Oil prices and any new Iran development impact on global

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“quantman”]only way to solve this through any means of force, where we could possibly win is to nuke them ourselves, completely, something I don’t think we have the balls to do, proactively.

Am I reading correctly that you think pre-emptively nuking Iran is a good idea?

Didn’t Israel previously knock out the nuclear facilities of another middle-eastern state? Maybe they’ll do it again claiming that it was in the interest of their national security. It’s not as if the Israelis are loved by their neighbours anyway.

Re: Oil prices and any new Iran development impact on global

[quote author=“quantman”]No, I’m saying unless we are prepared to that, any other means of military engagement, or limited strike will be a major, major disaster for all - for a very very long time! Nothing besides a total nuclear take-out is winnable, from a game-theory standpoint.

What I mean is that if we nuke Iran completely, then the entire middle least wil be lost, oil and all. Due to nuclear-fallout/radiation, the middle east won’t find foreign workers to work in the vicinity of a nuclear radiation zone (as the locals don’t do this kind of work). The shipping lanes (Straits of Hormuz) will also be affected, because people will not want to be on those ships and have their DNA be possibly damaged leading to birth defects etc.

So, without oil flowing like it now, with $200-$300 oil and rationing, the world will be in shock for a long-time.

And of course, people in Latin America, Asia, Russia etc will not be lining up to buy any kind of US products after 100M Iranian men, women and children have be killed or living with the after effects of radiation.

The Iranians know this, and know that in a conventional, guerilla type war, that lasts decades and where they are willing to sacrifice 500K-1M (like they did recently in their war with Saddam), we will never win!

That’s what I mean by game-theory.

Quant, nuclear is so last century with its fall-out… these days, vaccum bombs are all the rage. Russia just tested this conventional device, which yielded an explosion on par with a low yield nuclear device. Perfect for oil-rich areas

quantman,

Are you Hitler incarnation?

Killing is a short-term measure.  Long term, education is the key.  Those middle-east guys need to be educated that the purpose of each human being, irregardless of race, religion and color, is to preserve the human species and improve on quality of life for the whole.

[quote author=“Mace”]
Killing is a short-term measure.  Long term, education is the key.  Those middle-east guys need to be educated that the purpose of each human being, irregardless of race, religion and color, is to preserve the human species and improve on quality of life for the whole.

So true.  Unfortunately, only the more open minded people seem to see this.  The “zealots” tend to view the world with blinders on and can only see *their* way of thinking.  I wish there were a way to shake some sense into people. 

Please, no Hitler comparisons or I’ll have to lock this thread.

[quote author=“sstenner”][quote author=“Mace”]
Killing is a short-term measure.  Long term, education is the key.  Those middle-east guys need to be educated that the purpose of each human being, irregardless of race, religion and color, is to preserve the human species and improve on quality of life for the whole.

So true.  Unfortunately, only the more open minded people seem to see this.  The “zealots” tend to view the world with blinders on and can only see *their* way of thinking.  I wish there were a way to shake some sense into people. 

Every one tends to see the world his/her way, even us in the first world. The way people see the world is influenced by local education and cultural/religious context. People’s minds can not be changed. We in the developed word tend to think that we are in the possession of the only truth, but people with different backgrounds have their own truths perhaps conflicting with ours. I agree with Mace that the only way to change it is through education, a unified education common for all people in the world, but this is simply not possible unless poverty and extreme wealth differences are eliminated from earth. Oil exploitation in the middle east does not help for this purpose, but force is not either a solution. I am surprised of the naturalness with witch using nuclear weapons were talked. The US is hated for half the world population, not because these people are not open minded, but because the frivolity with witch the US use force to solve virtually anything. Definitely this is not the way to go. Force is overused not only to solve international conflicts but also internal issues. The US constitutional right for people to own a weapon is just unbelievable, and unfortunately this has become natural for many Americans. Using force should not be natural, as attacking a country should not be a natural thing to do when some international conflict is generated.

[quote author=“Mace”]quantman,

Are you Hitler incarnation?

Killing is a short-term measure.  Long term, education is the key.  Those middle-east guys need to be educated that the purpose of each human being, irregardless of race, religion and color, is to preserve the human species and improve on quality of life for the whole.

Mace,

You must not have read my posts carefully. If you do, I think you will find that a) I am talking about game theory and b) I am making the case for why a miltary plan against Iran will not work.

I hope you re-read my posts and let me know how you got the impression about me??

BTW, I would never ever recommend nukes except if there was deliberate nuke strike first against us by another country (vs. an individual, gang, terrorists etc).

quantman,

Hey, I don’t wear a turban and certainly don’t have a big nose .  I knew your view.  Just trying to talk like you , melodramatically.

[quote author=“Mace”]Hey, I don’t wear a turban and certainly don’t have a big nose

Lol.. but I bet you do have what our Prince Philip in one of his more well-known and tactless gaffes called “slitty eyes”