In these days SJ is announcing the november release of the iphone in the UK, Germany and France. Probably early in 2008 it will come to Italy, Spain and the scandies. It’s been very successful in the US, but tastes in consumer products can be quite different across the pond. Will the iphone be more or less popular in the Eurozone?

My feeling is it may be even more popular over here. Aesthetically it appears to be the most elegant phone on the market and with a very easy to use interface (based on reviews, I have yet to touch one ). The cost is high, but people don’t seem to have a problem with forking out for a cool phone. I therefore think it will exceed expectations.

What do you guys think? Has there been any serious attempt to estimate euro sales?

Like SJ says: it’s the future.

So of course it will be successful. But long term it is deeply threatening to carriers, other handset makers, and even other media distribution routes (cable, satellite, broadcast). So how the politics and commercial manoeuvring work out is hard to predict. I think it may largely depend if the exclusive partners decide to run with it, or are just content to have kept it from their competitors.

07:51   AAPL Apple: RBC expect initial strong European Christmas launch (140.92 )  -Update-

RBC notes that O2 will offer the iPhone Nov 9, in time for Christmas, with the same features as in U.S. Pricing is ~$536. Firm expects an initial strong European Christmas launch, though less than N. America. The 2.5G iPhone faces competition offering 3G Smartphones with high carrier subsidies. However, early demand may be assisted by O2’s competitive iPhone data/voice plans, offering unlimited data and Wi-Fi.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]07:51   AAPL Apple: RBC expect initial strong European Christmas launch (140.92 )  -Update-

RBC notes that O2 will offer the iPhone Nov 9, in time for Christmas, with the same features as in U.S. Pricing is ~$536. Firm expects an initial strong European Christmas launch, though less than N. America. The 2.5G iPhone faces competition offering 3G Smartphones with high carrier subsidies. However, early demand may be assisted by O2’s competitive iPhone data/voice plans, offering unlimited data and Wi-Fi.

There’s an old saying: “It takes a decade to become an overnight success.”

Let’s remember the iPod took about two years to reach critical sales mass. I expect the iPhone will do well at launch but will take time to reach blowout sales activity. Continued innovation and effective product management IMHO is key to the product reaching its full sales potential.

The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Steve J. said today in Berlin, that Apple is a computer company with some decades of experience in networking. Its engineers are going to squeeze the maximum of perfomance out of EDGE to get it nearly as fast as UMTS.  (http//www.macnews.de/keynote/iphone-apple-t-mobile/102945.html)

Remember Seven years ago 5 networks paid together 50,6 bln Ђ for UMTS-licences in Germany. Today 3G phones have a marketshare of roughly 10 percent. I’m not shure, but I think there are similar figures in GB and F. If it’s true, 3G is nothing else than a flop in Europe, which is a fact, that is not well known.

So, it will take some time for Apple to get the story told. But on the other hand It’s Apple Business as usual. Once the market will have understood the combination of EDGE and WiFI and the marketing power of the exclusive contracts with telcos, which operate at nearly 80 % fixed costs, the press will forget the nicely written “RIP OFF” - Stories of today and sink on their knees again to praise the cleverness of SJ.

So - Apple is doing its job like several times before. And nothing has changed.

[quote author=“buzzin55”]The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Do you think popular demand is there, notwithstanding the lack of understanding? Do you know many people thinking of getting one?

From November to Christmas I see Apple selling about 200,000 to 300,000 in Germany, the UK will probably run around 500,000 to 1,500,000, and France will either completely snub Apple or buy 10,000,000 of them to replace their BlackBerries that have been deemed breaches of national security (mostly since the servers reside in Canada and we all know the NSA uses Canada’s servers as their porn servers).

In all seriousness, I think Europe will account for about 2 million sales for the year, assuming Apple has the inventory.

[quote author=“mike_b”][quote author=“buzzin55”]The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Do you think popular demand is there, notwithstanding the lack of understanding? Do you know many people thinking of getting one?

If only the iPhone could be pitched as a device which would hep add fibre to your diet, the German’s would buy it in droves

However, I think 3M+ iPhones for this Christmas.

[quote author=“mike_b”][quote author=“buzzin55”]The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Do you think popular demand is there, notwithstanding the lack of understanding? Do you know many people thinking of getting one?

I doubt, if any reliable market survey has been published lately. So, anything I can offer are my personal experiences. People know the phone, but are sceptical. They need to get their hands on. But the question is where? We are missing the Apple Stores badly in Germany. The T-Mobile Stores offer usually the lame service you know from AT&T-Stores in the US.

In europe alone? So you would estimated >5 million in the december quarter, including a modest 2 million say in the US?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“mike_b”][quote author=“buzzin55”]The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Do you think popular demand is there, notwithstanding the lack of understanding? Do you know many people thinking of getting one?

If only the iPhone could be pitched as a device which would hep add fibre to your diet, the German’s would buy it in droves

However, I think 3M+ iPhones for this Christmas.

You’re being over optimistic again, I have a hard time believing Apple will have the inventory to even sell 2 million units in Europe by Christmas, let alone in excess of 3 million. They’ll probably only put 100k in Germany, the UK I’m betting on being the cash cow, and France is so questionable as to which way they’ll jump that you might as well send them 100k as well.

maybe 3 million worldwide?

[quote author=“buzzin55”][quote author=“mike_b”][quote author=“buzzin55”]The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Do you think popular demand is there, notwithstanding the lack of understanding? Do you know many people thinking of getting one?

I doubt, if any reliable market survey has been published lately. So, anything I can offer are my personal experiences. People know the phone, but are sceptical. They need to get their hands on. But the question is: where? We are missing the Apple Stores badly in Germany. The T-Mobile Stores offer usually the lame service you know from AT&T-Stores in the US.

Don’t forget though: T-Mobile stores will not be the only ones selling the iPhone. MediaMarkt, Kaufhof and Gravis have also announced they will be selling the iPhone. T-Mobile exclusivity is in the network, NOT the retail sales locations. SJ has already said that activation in Germany will be the same as in the US; done from your home computer through iTunes. MediaMarkt and Gravis have already reported that iPhone inquiries have been in the hundreds of thousands, so it just may well be a hit in Germany.

Personally I don’t care if it has 3g or not. The carriers have seriously screwed up in their handling of 3g / UMTS. If the iPhone / T-Mobile deal allows me to access any T-Mobile Hotspot without having to log in, that’s all I need. T-Mobile is even starting to put WiFi on their ICE trains. I commute a lot throughout Germany, so this will be just what I need.

[quote author=“mike_b”]maybe 3 million worldwide?

Sorry I should have clarified: 3M worldwide, yes.

I think people are being overy optimistic. I think the phone was designed more for the US market and it took over 70 days to sell a million of them. I would be happy if Apple sold a half million of them in Europe and I would be ecstatic if they sold anything north of that. I think Apple can sell about 1.5 to 2 million for the holiday quarter so overall, about 2.5-3 million by years end. If Apple can get the iPod Touch the same free(or almost free) wifi deal in Europe, I think they stand to sell about the same number of those in Europe as iPhones.

More than just the numbers of phones/touches that they sell, the more important thing is that Apple is getting viewed in a more positive light for the other hardware that they sell. While someone might not buy a phone, if they come into one of the Apple stores, they will be looking at the cpus and maybe bringing one of them home. I think the blowout number is going to be in cpus sold. Apple has bundled some of their iPods with computers for the student market. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, they will do for the holidays.

Neal

[quote author=“csimmons”][quote author=“buzzin55”][quote author=“mike_b”][quote author=“buzzin55”]The german market doesn’t understand the iPhone so far. Media, analysts and bloggers see it as a gadget which is stylish but technical behind. It will take some time, before they get the story.

Do you think popular demand is there, notwithstanding the lack of understanding? Do you know many people thinking of getting one?

I doubt, if any reliable market survey has been published lately. So, anything I can offer are my personal experiences. People know the phone, but are sceptical. They need to get their hands on. But the question is: where? We are missing the Apple Stores badly in Germany. The T-Mobile Stores offer usually the lame service you know from AT&T-Stores in the US.

Don’t forget though: T-Mobile stores will not be the only ones selling the iPhone. MediaMarkt, Kaufhof and Gravis have also announced they will be selling the iPhone. T-Mobile exclusivity is in the network, NOT the retail sales locations. SJ has already said that activation in Germany will be the same as in the US; done from your home computer through iTunes. MediaMarkt and Gravis have already reported that iPhone inquiries have been in the hundreds of thousands, so it just may well be a hit in Germany.

Personally I don’t care if it has 3g or not. The carriers have seriously screwed up in their handling of 3g / UMTS. If the iPhone / T-Mobile deal allows me to access any T-Mobile Hotspot without having to log in, that’s all I need. T-Mobile is even starting to put WiFi on their ICE trains. I commute a lot throughout Germany, so this will be just what I need.

Sorry, we should not mix up the news from today and the most recent speculation in the media. In the press statement Apple has said today, T-Mobile “is the exclusive marketing partner”.  This makes pretty clear, other retailers missed the game.