Sometimes it seems like I have difficulty in timing moves either in or out of a stock.  Like on Monday, when the stock took off midday, I had sold out of most of mine RIGHT BEFORE it took off.  I mean, the stock had a great run up last week, and as it languished in the early morning on Monday, I didn’t want to lose the profits from last week, so I sold off slightly more than 50% of my options.  THEN THE STOCK FLEW UPWARDS!  Anyway, I wonder how you guys deal with stuff like that.  Doesn’t it eat at you for a while when that happens?  For some reason, it seems to bother the h*ll out of me!

Oh wait, I need to add something.  Sometimes I feel like all you guys need to do is tell me which way you want the stock to move…I’ll do the opposite and surely, YOUR WISH WILL COME TRUE…USUALLY WITHIN MINUTES!

YES!! 

No, we’re all perfect, extra human investors who know precisely when to buy and sell for maximum profit. We never misjudge the market. How dare you even suggest it!

Re: Do you guys ever beat yourselves up over your decisions?

[quote author=“johnnyvn”]Sometimes it seems like I have difficulty in timing moves either in or out of a stock.  Like on Monday, when the stock took off midday, I had sold out of most of mine RIGHT BEFORE it took off.  I mean, the stock had a great run up last week, and as it languished in the early morning on Monday, I didn’t want to lose the profits from last week, so I sold off slightly more than 50% of my options.  THEN THE STOCK FLEW UPWARDS!  Anyway, I wonder how you guys deal with stuff like that.  Doesn’t it eat at you for a while when that happens?  For some reason, it seems to bother the h*ll out of me!

I don’t have a ton of experience with “trading”, but I have already learned not to beat myself up about the profit that “might have been”.  It’s water under the bridge.  Nothing can be done to change it.  If you look at the situation objectively and feel you actually made a “mistake”, then learn from that mistake and don’t repeat it.  BUT, if you took profit…you MADE money…maybe not as much as you “might” have, but you didn’t LOSE money and the ticker could have just as easily gone DOWN and your profits with it.  Move on…think about what you don’t like about the trade and try something different “next time”.  That’s what i do and I sell too soon and buy too high WAY more often than I’d like.

That’s my $.02  

Re: Do you guys ever beat yourselves up over your decisions?

[quote author=“sstenner”]If you look at the situation objectively and feel you actually made a “mistake”, then learn from that mistake and don’t repeat it. 

Yeah, the hard part about stocks is that sometimes I feel that it’s really difficult to “learn” from such situations…because AAPL is so darn volatile in either direction, and sometimes seemingly with no apparent reason.  And then you have the general markets which at least lumbar at a little slower pace (not typically turning on a dime aside from Fed announcements, etc).  But sometimes when Apple releases killer products, you have “sell the news” and other times, the stock just seems to rocket on general principle…but it doesn’t seem timed to anything.  Then you have OE situation every month.  I mean, this stuff is CRAZY.  I just keep looking at RIMM thinking, if only I had put money there because the damn stock just seems unstoppable…at least until people realize that iPhone is going to take market share.  Anyway, I just find it hard to stay unemotional about it.

Re: Do you guys ever beat yourselves up over your decisions?

[quote author=“johnnyvn”]Sometimes it seems like I have difficulty in timing moves either in or out of a stock.  Like on Monday, when the stock took off midday, I had sold out of most of mine RIGHT BEFORE it took off.  I mean, the stock had a great run up last week, and as it languished in the early morning on Monday, I didn’t want to lose the profits from last week, so I sold off slightly more than 50% of my options.  THEN THE STOCK FLEW UPWARDS!  Anyway, I wonder how you guys deal with stuff like that.  Doesn’t it eat at you for a while when that happens?  For some reason, it seems to bother the h*ll out of me!

I keep reminding myself:

“It’s better to miss the boat than to sail on a boat that sinks.”

doesn’t really help, but it sounds good.

just me

You bet.  I made decisions in the last 2 months that cost me over 36K

I try to make myself feel better by looking long term.  When aapl is at 450 and my portfolio is worth well over 650K who cares about 36k.

Re: Do you guys ever beat yourselves up over your decisions?

[quote author=“johnnyvn”][quote author=“sstenner”]If you look at the situation objectively and feel you actually made a “mistake”, then learn from that mistake and don’t repeat it. 

Yeah, the hard part about stocks is that sometimes I feel that it’s really difficult to “learn” from such situations…because AAPL is so darn volatile in either direction, and sometimes seemingly with no apparent reason.  And then you have the general markets which at least lumbar at a little slower pace (not typically turning on a dime aside from Fed announcements, etc).  But sometimes when Apple releases killer products, you have “sell the news” and other times, the stock just seems to rocket on general principle…but it doesn’t seem timed to anything.  Then you have OE situation every month.  I mean, this stuff is CRAZY.  I just keep looking at RIMM thinking, if only I had put money there because the damn stock just seems unstoppable…at least until people realize that iPhone is going to take market share.  Anyway, I just find it hard to stay unemotional about it.

I guess I didn’t exactly mean “learn”.  For example, I “learned” about holding TOO long by losing a LOT of money when the stock turned downward unexpectedly.  The reason I held too long was because i felt I had sold too soon, previously.  I decided I’d rather be “safe” than “sorry”.  So, now, when the stock is nearing or has reached all time highs, I consider taking at least “some” profit.  Also, I bought too many near month options and found that, while the reward can be great, the loss is greater, so I am now keeping my near term options positions much smaller. 

I agree with your thinking about RIMM.  When all the hoopla began, I really wish I’d “gotten in”.  Now, I keep thinking it’s too late.  I actually bought a hundred shares a couple of months ago, but decided they couldn’t POSSIBLY go higher….WRONG! 

“Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda” doesn’t make things better, so, from my perspective, the best thing is to make *some* profit and never look back at what might have been. 

The simple answer is: Yes.

After having a very successful spell trading when I started, I now can’t seem to string a decent series of trades together. I either hold on too long, sell too early or simply pick the wrong direction in which to lean with my trades.

It’s got to a point where I second guess every thing I do. In part, I believe this is a result of increased volatility in the markets, but another part of me believes that its more down to the fact that the more I learn, the less I realise I know.

If I can use a metaphor with the music industry. This year for me seems to be like that difficult second album which many artists seem to encounter. The first album is a huge hit, the second is a less well-received affair. I do, however, believe that this is the time when I really learn how to become a good trader, as opposed to a lucky beginner. I’ve had to question my methods, but only by doing so will I establish what for me is a formula that is both lucrative and repeatable.

If I looked at the opportunites lost I would scream. If I had stayed with my original AAPL position from several years ago,  I would have almost 3X the portfolio that I have now. 

I just keep telling myself to stay true to what I know and read about apple and think long term and to ingore the ups and downs (the current volatility makes me nuts). I used to work at the CME for a number of years and learned that the MMs and big boys have a huge advantage and we play into their hands when we 2nd guess ourselves and get in and out more than we should.

Enjoy the ride, at least you’re along for it so you might as well.
Mac

I’ve traded almost exclusively in AAPL for 4 years now.  I spend about 2 hours a day researching the news and the industry.  My strategy is based on history, technicals, news, and intuition concerning future developments.  I find that I can consistently make money based on seasonal trends and general fundamentals.

When I make a mistake and see profits go down the drain I just remind myself that I’m in at $7.49 a share and I’ve already extracted and spent 10 times my initial investment.

I have one word of advice for anyone investing in AAPL….PATIENCE!

I used to beat myself up when I sold too soon (or too late), and then, when a cooler (but not by much) mood prevailed, I plotted my revenge.

Said revenge was a determination to trade the same stock that caused a loss till it gave up a profit. It felt like sneaking up to a pickpocketer in a dark alley with a crowbar. The result, as can be expected, was even more losses: stocks don’t behave like scared thieves but move according to unemotional twitches in the expected valuation of a company.

Now, if I feel I have missed an opportunity, I try to regain it by using options instead. Given the wide range of choice in the options market, I can use derivatives of the same stock to make up for losses I have incurred.

I think I know a lot about computers, software development, and key computer science issues, which gives me a certain limited base of understanding of the industry. As a retired old goat, I have considerable time to spend researching Apple, their competitors, suppliers and general industry issues. This research is really just reading articles and postings on the Internet.

This board provides me with some of the technical analysis aspects of investing, but also a lot of good fundamental information about Apple and all of the surrounding relevant issues.

But I have a life to live and do not want to be tied—slave like—to the financial information pipeline—the Internet—so I have made the decision to stick with long term non leveraged investing. So even with my math intensive engineering systems optimization background, I willingly give up the opportunity to play the short term trading game. I know that without several years worth of study, I would almost certainly lose my shirt trading.

For the reasons above, I do not beat myself up about missed opportunities. I accept the fact of my TA ignorance and avoid combat on the short term battlefield. The background screens on my computers show a historic logarithmic AAPL plot with a linear P/E plot below to remind me that long term investing in AAPL is a damn good choice for me.

BTW, I can’t find any other stock with Apple’s potential ... actually Apple’s high probability of pulling off a business history making juggernaut. I’ve bet the farm on AAPL.

[quote author=“MacProdigalSon”]I think I know a lot about computers, software development, and key computer science issues, which gives me a certain limited base of understanding of the industry. As a retired old goat, I have considerable time to spend researching Apple, their competitors, suppliers and general industry issues. This research is really just reading articles and postings on the Internet.

This board provides me with some of the technical analysis aspects of investing, but also a lot of good fundamental information about Apple and all of the surrounding relevant issues.

But I have a life to live and do not want to be tied—slave like—to the financial information pipeline—the Internet—so I have made the decision to stick with long term non leveraged investing. So even with my math intensive engineering systems optimization background, I willingly give up the opportunity to play the short term trading game. I know that without several years worth of study, I would almost certainly lose my shirt trading.

For the reasons above, I do not beat myself up about missed opportunities. I accept the fact of my TA ignorance and avoid combat on the short term battlefield. The background screens on my computers show a historic logarithmic AAPL plot with a linear P/E plot below to remind me that long term investing in AAPL is a damn good choice for me.

BTW, I can’t find any other stock with Apple’s potential ... actually Apple’s high probability of pulling off a business history making juggernaut. I’ve bet the farm on AAPL.

Amen brother!  We have similar backgrounds, similar situations, and similar attitudes about AAPL.  This year I’ve expanded into options, though.  I like the limited downside, and I never invest in them what I can’t stand to lose.  I’m learning never to make buy or sell decisions when there’s a sense of urgency or outright panic.  “Patience” is an important concept.

Answer: Yes.

But insights into trading mistakes provide insights into life. I look at it this way: Learning from a mistake or misjudgment no matter the arena makes life richer if I allow myself to learn from the mistakes.