[quote author=“DawnTreader”]I’m suggesting now 2.4 million Mac shipped in the quarter. The education/college student sales numbers will be staggering IMHO.
Market rumor (not mine, have no clue) is 2.35 million.
[quote author=“DawnTreader”]I’m suggesting now 2.4 million Mac shipped in the quarter. The education/college student sales numbers will be staggering IMHO.
truly a staggering number. Almost 1 million more units than some analyst forecasts. Almost assures a $200 price tag on the stock for end of year
I love prediction topics. Think we can sticky this for the earnings call?
From my back-of-the-napkin calculations, Apple’s Q4 Mac sales increased about 30% year-over-year from Fiscal ‘05 (1.236 million) to ‘06 (1.61 million). If sales keep pace with that increase, we have a floor of about 2.093 million Macs. Even that number would be pretty rockin’, handily beating the previous record of 1.764 million Macs set last quarter.
I think there’s a considerable contingent of buyers (like myself) still waiting for Leopard to drop. Apple doesn’t need us for its impressive (and apparently accelerating) Mac growth, but I think it’ll see significantly higher Mac users once it does launch. So, I’ll predict a somewhat modest increase in sales growth rate from 30% to 40% and say about 2.25 million Macs get sold this quarter. Still a huge, huge number.
Anecdotal evidence (in particular the high percentage of new Mac portables on campus, indicates a blow out quarter. I believe 2.4 million units is more than possible.
[quote author=“DawnTreader”]Anecdotal evidence (in particular the high percentage of new Mac portables on campus, indicates a blow out quarter. I believe 2.4 million units is more than possible.
I’ll take that as it would be an even bigger blow-out than I have forecasted.
The biggest problem is that the street will trust their guidance even less.
[quote author=“DawnTreader”]I’m suggesting now 2.4 million Mac shipped in the quarter. The education/college student sales numbers will be staggering IMHO.
[quote author=“HotAirBaffoon”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]Anecdotal evidence (in particular the high percentage of new Mac portables on campus, indicates a blow out quarter. I believe 2.4 million units is more than possible.
I’ll take that as it would be an even bigger blow-out than I have forecasted.
The biggest problem is that the street will trust their guidance even less.
HAB
It would mean a roughly 50% YOY gain in unit sales and about 36% sequentially. I think we will all be surprised by the numbers.
Last quarter Apple posted a 21.3% sequential gain in units and a bit over 30% gain in units YOY.
Guys, not to rain on the parade, but we have to look no further back then the first week of July, when we were wondering how many millions of iPhones had sold in the first 48 hours. I’m surely not saying that mac sales won’t be blowouts, but at the same time, let’s remember that those of us on this board, including myself, can have a tendency to start upping our projections, and upping our projections, and upping and upping, until, before you know, we’ve projected simply too much…
[quote author=“johnnyvn”]Guys, not to rain on the parade, but we have to look no further back then the first week of July, when we were wondering how many millions of iPhones had sold in the first 48 hours. I’m surely not saying that mac sales won’t be blowouts, but at the same time, let’s remember that those of us on this board, including myself, can have a tendency to start upping our projections, and upping our projections, and upping and upping, until, before you know, we’ve projected simply too much…
Before you start worrying about projecting too much in Mac sales, remember that in 2005q4, Apple posted 48% YoY unit growth. So projecting 2.4M unit sales in 2007q4 is not unrealistic.
[quote author=“DCJ001”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]I’m suggesting now 2.4 million Mac shipped in the quarter. The education/college student sales numbers will be staggering IMHO.
Pleasepleaseplease don’t post these long URLs, instead please embedd them in the text of your post.
Do it like this
[url=http://duggmirror.com/apple/Look_at_them_apples/cba56d2d8545c3b1818ab1c3c1ba58de_img_6671s.jpg]Look at them Apples[/url]
DCJ001: Welcome to AFB; the reason we don’t like long URLs here is two-fold. They elongate windows for all the posts on that page making it hard to for us old farts to read them. And even more importantly, they don’t fit on iPhones.
In another thread I stated that I would be happy with quantman’s prediction of 2.1 (My own prediction is 2.06). I am nervous about the Leopard holdouts. However, it occurs to me that the absence of a Leopard coupon program may indicate that Apple is so happy with Mac sales that they don’t need to worry about a couple of hundred thousand more. Summing it up - anything above 1.90 is OK, and anything above 2.1 is wonderful.
I did hear a rumor today that a $10 Leopard coupon may be coming soon.
[quote author=“awcabot”][quote author=“johnnyvn”]Guys, not to rain on the parade, but we have to look no further back then the first week of July, when we were wondering how many millions of iPhones had sold in the first 48 hours. I’m surely not saying that mac sales won’t be blowouts, but at the same time, let’s remember that those of us on this board, including myself, can have a tendency to start upping our projections, and upping our projections, and upping and upping, until, before you know, we’ve projected simply too much…
Before you start worrying about projecting too much in Mac sales, remember that in 2005q4, Apple posted 48% YoY unit growth. So projecting 2.4M unit sales in 2007q4 is not unrealistic.
IMHO the college student sales are worth about 500k in unit sales in the September quarter.
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