Good history of Mac sales, market share and installed base. Encouraging

A columnist over at TSC says most of southern California is sold out of Macs. Blow-out quarter ahead!

Gary Dvorchak
Apples Picked Over
10/3/2007 10:12 AM EDT
Since there are alot of Apple fans on the site, I thought I’d pass on an intriguing datapoint that indicates Apple may report a very strong quarter. I went into a Best Buy in central Los Angeles intending to buy an iMac, and was told they were sold out, after an unusually strong selling weekend. In response to my asking where another Best Buy is, so I could go there, he informed me that basically all of southern california was sold out of iMacs! I could drive 70 miles to San Bernadino, and they might have a few left there.

Take it FWIW, its not a comprehensive survey, but certainly a surprisingly positive anecdote pointing to another strong quarter from Apple.

DCJ001 Welcome aboard!

I just noticed that the MacBook Pro Base model and high end has a 7-10 day shipping period.

The iMacs have 2-4 days.

This tells me that they are selling them faster then they can store them.  Good sign for this quarter.

[quote author=“omacvi”]I just noticed that the MacBook Pro Base model and high end has a 7-10 day shipping period.

The iMacs have 2-4 days.

This tells me that they are selling them faster then they can store them.  Good sign for this quarter.

Or, we could get a product refresh before the end of the month.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]
Or, we could get a product refresh before the end of the month.

Historically MacBooks (iBooks) and MacBooks Pro (PowerBooks) were almost always refreshed in the months of October or November. I’m not sure about MacBook Pro but I definitely expect new MacBooks in October or latest very early in Novemeber. This historical reality may be undermined by Leopard release which is going to stimulate sales by itself without the need for a refresh (see this poll - about 25% of over 6K respondents plan to buy leopard with new computer but those respondents are from sites that tend to have more active mac users). I noticed that Apple doesn’t refresh its product lines so often after Intel switch which is kind of strange since many have expected the opposite.

I will come up with my estimates later in the month after IDC data are out. I’m very encouraged to do the math again because I precisely nailed 1.76M number last Q so I’m very curious if I can do that again with my model. This Q will be a little bit harder because I think CS3 influence will be much more visible (despite the fact that summer is always very weak in pro sales) but at the same time sizeable portion of users are holding back purchase because of Leopard. Another factor is back to school season were macs reportedly scored (grew) better than usually.

BTW I think it’s really stupid Apple didn’t put any upgrade policy in place. There should have been grace period at least from the middle of September. They probably don’t need to bother but it’s not nice to customers at all.

[quote author=“pethr”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]
Or, we could get a product refresh before the end of the month.

Historically MacBooks (iBooks) and MacBooks Pro (PowerBooks) were almost always refreshed in the months of October or November. I’m not sure about MacBook Pro but I definitely expect new MacBooks in October or latest very early in Novemeber. This historical reality may be undermined by Leopard released which will stimulate sales by itself without the need for a refresh (see this poll - about 25% of over 6K respondents plan to buy leopard with new computer but those respondents are from sites that tend to have more active mac users). I noticed that Apple doesn’t refresh its product lines so often after Intel switch which is kind of strange since many have expected the opposite.

I will come up with my estimates later in the month after IDG data are out. I’m very encouraged to do the math again because I precisely nailed 1.76M number last Q so I’m very curious if I can do that again with my model. This Q will be a little bit harder because I think CS3 influence will be much more visible (despite the fact that summer is always very weak in pro sales) but at the same time sizeable portion of users are holding back purchase because of Leopard. Another factor is back to school season were macs reportedly scored (grew) better than usually.

BTW I think it’s really stupid Apple didn’t put any upgrade policy in place. There should have been grace period at least from the middle of September. They probably don’t need to bother but it’s not nice to customers at all.

pethr,

I hope you got back in and bought a few shares

I agree with your observations.  I think Apple can increase sales without an upgrade right now, only because of Leopard.  There are millions like myself that have G4 and G5 that have been patiently waiting for upgrades.  Leopard is the one catalyst that might make us upgrade.  Better hardware would be nice, but from what I have read the cost will discourage many.  The Halo affect from the iPod and iPHone is increasing Mac Sales very well for Apple.  The Mac Stores are also a big reason for increases in Macs.  From my observations lately I have seen more people looking at Macs then iPods.  Those iPod owners are about to switch and the Mac Stores are giving them the opportunity to play with Macs and then cross over.

I’ll say once again I expect Leopard to contribute directly to a 500k increase in Mac sales this quarter. I also expect a Mac Pro upgrade before the end of this month.

[quote author=“omacvi”]Better hardware would be nice, but from what I have read the cost will discourage many.

I don’t get what you mean by this. Are there any rumors of increased prices on upgrades? Apple doesn’t change price upward very often these days. And see their margins and profit for reason. Anything significantly north of 35% is a steal.
[quote author=“DawnTrader”]I’ll say once again I expect Leopard to contribute directly to a 500k increase in Mac sales this quarter. I also expect a Mac Pro upgrade before the end of this month.

DT, that’s entirely possible, although I would expect a bit less.

[quote author=“pethr”][quote author=“omacvi”]Better hardware would be nice, but from what I have read the cost will discourage many.

I don’t get what you mean by this. Are there any rumors of increased prices on upgrades? Apple doesn’t change price upward very often these days. And see their margins and profit for reason. Anything significantly north of 35% is a steal.
[quote author=“DawnTrader”]I’ll say once again I expect Leopard to contribute directly to a 500k increase in Mac sales this quarter. I also expect a Mac Pro upgrade before the end of this month.

DT, that’s entirely possible, although I would expect a bit less.

According to Apple Insider

Pricing leaked out of Intel in August would have them fetching well over $1000 each, however, making for some pricey Apple desktops given that each Mac Pro would require two of these chips. It would also require that Apple update the Mac Pro’s underlying architecture to accommodate a 1600MHz front-side bus.

Maybe Apple bought a bunch of these for future models and took a big hit on Margins as a result.