Nice run up today. What’s fueling GOOG?

Re: GOOG

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]Nice run up today. What’s fueling GOOG?

Currently my portfolio consists almost entirely of GOOG and AAPL stocks and options.  I’ve been buying more GOOG the last few weeks.

Here’s my working hypothesis:

GOOG is very underpriced, relative to its incredible growth.  As earnings announcements approach, the reality of its low price outweighs its bad publicity and constant insider selling.  I think there’s more run up to come.

Anyway that’s how I’ve been playing it for the last few quarters.  I’ll lighten up after earnings and shift more into AAPL, looking for a big run into Macworld.  AAPL has been very, very good to me. 

Tangentially: what do you think is in the future for GOOG, AAPL, their large cash hoards, their close ties, and the newly available prime spectrum to be auctioned early next year.  Could be a game changer.
 

Re: GOOG

[quote author=“Intrepid”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]Nice run up today. What’s fueling GOOG?

Currently my portfolio consists almost entirely of GOOG and AAPL stocks and options.  I’ve been buying more GOOG the last few weeks.

Here’s my working hypothesis:

GOOG is very underpriced, relative to its incredible growth.  As earnings announcements approach, the reality of its low price outweighs its bad publicity and constant insider selling.  I think there’s more run up to come.

Anyway that’s how I’ve been playing it for the last few quarters.  I’ll lighten up after earnings and shift more into AAPL, looking for a big run into Macworld.  AAPL has been very, very good to me. 

Tangentially: what do you think is in the future for GOOG, AAPL, their large cash hoards, their close ties, and the newly available prime spectrum to be auctioned early next year.  Could be a game changer.
 

I thought Apple/Steve Jobs is on record saying they have no interest in the prime spectum.

Re: GOOG

[quote author=“superbaka”]I thought Apple/Steve Jobs is on record saying they have no interest in the prime spectum.

Just found the following:

“BusinessWeek Sep 10, 2007 09:44 AM
…Two sources tell BusinessWeek that Steve Jobs & Co. have studied the implications of joining the auction, which will be held Jan. 16.… “

Is GOOG still “cheap”?

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]Is GOOG still “cheap”?

I think it is. 

Enterprise Value / EBDITA (E/E) is ~ 33 (ttm) and the top line growth is ~ 58%!  Also Net Income was negatively impacted last quarter by extraordinary hirings, so I expect ever better numbers this quarter.  Growth is slowing a few per cent per quarter. 

Or, if you like P/E (not my favorite), forward P/E is estimated @ ~30.  Analysts estimate ongoing growth of 30%, if you think you can trust analysts (I don’t).

IMHO

It’s a fat margin business that produces good cash. I see the share price as cheap compared to long-term prospects.

$609.62 at the NY close. That’s an amazing gain in the past few days of trading.

I have been trading/investing for 7 months now but have learnt the lesson that I CANNOT time AAPL and GOOG.

The amount of profits left on the table… sigh.

Back in in both and going loooong.

[quote author=“iCall”]I have been trading/investing for 7 months now but have learnt the lesson that I CANNOT time AAPL and GOOG.

The amount of profits left on the table… sigh.

Back in in both and going loooong.

I have been long since the big crash in 2000. Had to hold out for a while but is returning well. Just need the US dollar to strengthen a bit (or the AUS to weaken a bit).

I think also constistency in strategy is wise.

Anyone else a tad worried that an analyst with the stature of Lehman Bros could come out and pump GOOG with a new price target on the basis of the possibility that there might be a gPhone sometime in the works sometime next year? Talk about reaching! The moron went on to speculate about how the device “might be a low cost phone,” and “could be this,” and “perhaps might include something along the lines of.”
Yeah, and it might just be a phone OS, supplied free to OEMs in exchange for making Google the default search application, and Google Maps the default mapping application etc etc.
I have to say I get worried when I see a gPhone argument being deployed as justification for raising a price target on GOOG. Is that the best he can come up with?

Idle speculation:  Apple withheld the launch of a no frills iPhone upon request by Google, in place launch current iPhone.  This no frills iPhone would be launched as iPhone beta (as directed by roontoon).  I would’ve preferred to call it iPhone thin or iPhone shuffle.

I don’t see it today.

I do see a no frills iPhone possibly in the future as Apple seeks to expand the company’s clout in the cell business. But first the company needs to establish leadership in the more profitable smartphone market and can expand volume at a later time through a no frills, lower cost phone.

Here’s an interesting insight into how GOOG makes some pocket change.

I see Cramer is pumping up GOOG to $750 next year and eventually $900.  That’s pretty bold.  I’m almost tempted to get a few shares.  Nah.  I’d be limited to ten shares.  Somehow, I think I already missed the boat long ago.  I don’t think I can hold off a decision too long unless somebody is predicting a pullback.  And I thought it was overpriced at $300.  I’m so stupid.

http://www.thestreet.com/_iwon/s/cramers-mad-money-recap-googles-next-stop-750/funds/madmoneywrap/10383766.html??cf=WSIWON1111051500

No. Not stupid.

It’s a challenging stock to gauge both its long-term and short-term potential. The company is creating its own market. I’m in and I really don’t like odd lots but at $600 per share or more it’s tough to muster $60k to play. I see GOOG as being among the first $1 trillion market cap stocks. I just don’t know how long that will take.