Wow - AH high 164.56!!!

Now down to 163.15 - still amamzing action in AH and decent volume. I can’t wait until Monday to see the action

Have a great weekend guys ang gals and enjoy dinner, whatever it may be - bull’s texticles, cow’s tongue or bull’s tail soup (that actually really exists!).

A good week for AAPL.

Will the momentum continue into Monday?

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]A good week for AAPL.

Will the momentum continue into Monday?

Though there is not yet(?) any sign of it, a normal or let me say a common behaviour, would be flat to down until OE, which is just one trading day before Earnings, followed by a return to the tops and above from then on. This turn may happen, though, not right on Monday but as late as the following week. To be honest, and although I lightened on Friday my AAPL position, I expect the rally to continue at least during Monday PM.

[quote author=“carbonat”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]A good week for AAPL.

Will the momentum continue into Monday?

Though there is not yet(?) any sign of it, a normal or let me say a common behaviour, would be flat to down until OE, which is just one trading day before Earnings, followed by a return to the tops and above from then on. This turn may happen, though, not right on Monday but as late as the following week. To be honest, and although I lightened on Friday my AAPL position, I expect the rally to continue at least during Monday PM.

Hope you are right, as I sold half Friday before close. 

There is also the possibility the large funds will trade the price down to get in cheaper before the run up to earnings. Volatility rather than flatness might be the “norm.”

The earnings for the September quarter should be stellar, handily beating both guidance and Street estimates. Anyone else seeing AAPL coming close to $1.00 per share for September?

I see the number closer to Caligula’s $1.29 a share. I believe it will be around $1.14. course this new straight line accounting throws a spanner into the works. Be interesting to see how they account for the iTouch though.

My estimate as I have stated is 1.13 which with your opinion snipus makes me think I, (we) are very close to being right. If we get that # I believe we run up to 185-188? A very merry Chistmas for all.  

quote=“SNIPUS”]I see the number closer to Caligula’s $1.29 a share. I believe it will be around $1.14. course this new straight line accounting throws a spanner into the works. Be interesting to see how they account for the iTouch though.

Like most of you I believe we will get strong earnings comes the 22nd, but for some reason I just can’t get over how low they guided: maybe they know something we don’t? it could be software infrastructure upgrades, the $200 price cut, the $100 credit (which was genius by the way). Yes most of these can be rebutted, the point here is we don’t know why they guided so low. With expectations sky high, and the potential for a sell off after earnings (just like last earning report), suddenly I am not so sure anymore it could really go $10-$15 either way

The $200 price cut and the $100 credit will have virtually no impact on earnings because of the deferred revenue accounting used for the iPhone. The tripling of demand for the iPhone following the price adjustment will more than offset any negative impact on earnings.

I agree.  Apple I don’t think intentionally low balls their guidance.  They are conservative, and they know what their costs will be.  Sure sales could be booming, but not to the degree we all want. 

I recall many predicted close to 2 million macs and we were well below that.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]
The $200 price cut and the $100 credit will have virtually no impact on earnings because of the deferred revenue accounting used for the iPhone. The tripling of demand for the iPhone following the price adjustment will more than offset any negative impact on earnings.

Maybe so but at the end of the day they low guided knowing they will be spending big bucks on things we may not even consider e.g. their search vendor has changed this quarter.

The last time I recall Apple providing aggressive guidance was the summer of 2000. The company paid a heavy price for missing its own targets and the earnings advisory essentially cut the share price in half. I don’t think aggressive guidance is a part of the company’s culture.

Mace says the whisper number is $.95. That falls in line with my estimates.

I sure hope you are off on your estimate. I believe if you are right this stock goes back to 140-145 range in a hurry. Since we have seen suprises of .20,.23, and .36 in the last 3 qtrs if we come in with just a .12 suprise after adding the iphone (other suprises were without iphone) I think we (AAPL) will get hammered. Just my opinion.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]The last time I recall Apple providing aggressive guidance was the summer of 2000. The company paid a heavy price for missing its own targets and the earnings advisory essentially cut the share price in half. I don’t think aggressive guidance is a part of the company’s culture.

Mace says the whisper number is $.95. That falls in line with my estimates.

[quote author=“mbeauch”]I sure hope you are off on your estimate. I believe if you are right this stock goes back to 140-145 range in a hurry. Since we have seen suprises of .20,.23, and .36 in the last 3 qtrs if we come in with just a .12 suprise after adding the iphone (other suprises were without iphone) I think we (AAPL) will get hammered. Just my opinion.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]The last time I recall Apple providing aggressive guidance was the summer of 2000. The company paid a heavy price for missing its own targets and the earnings advisory essentially cut the share price in half. I don’t think aggressive guidance is a part of the company’s culture.

Mace says the whisper number is $.95. That falls in line with my estimates.

Apple has some play in the numbers. Don’t worry about the iPhone for now. The income recognition is deferred over the anticipated two-year life of the phone. What would the gross margin on 2 million phones spread over eight quarters really be worth? Not much in the first full quarter of sales.

Depending on channel fill for Macs and iPods (at Apple’s discretion) there is some give in the earnings range.

FUD from Businessweek.