[quote author=“dynein”]FUD from Businessweek.
 

“Nyah Nyah I won’t buy an iPhone because Steve Jobs ate my baby and won’t let me install <insert-any-application-you-can-think-of-here> .” Good lord… Arik needs to chill out a bit and relax. He’s going to look like a complete tool for ranting like this just weeks before Leopard’s release, and with it a slew of new features and probably applications too for the iPhone.

My bet is that he slinks off to an Apple Store by about January and buys himself one.

Anyhoo.. a $2 PM pop for AAPL.. right at key resistance IMO at the top of a trading channel. A breakout from here will probably lead to about $166.50 in short order.

Support is around 159.50 - 160. A breakdown below about 158.50 (steep uptrend from August lows) could be extremely bearish though. Recognise there are a lot of short-term momentum traders playing in our sandpit now.

Tommo, what’s your feeling about what the likely price will be right before the earnings announcement? Just broad-brush, like higher or lower than now?

[quote author=“mike_b”]Tommo, what’s your feeling about what the likely price will be right before the earnings announcement? Just broad-brush, like higher or lower than now?

I have NO IDEA AT ALL what is going to happen pre-earnings any more, and NO IDEA AT ALL what happens after it, except to say that if RIMM can get a pop like this from its in-line report and (IMO) raised guidance, AAPL could similarly benefit from a blow-out report and decent guidance. I’ve rarely felt more ill at ease with an earnings report than I do with AAPL this quarter. I don’t mean I’m unduly concerned, but there are more known unknowns IMO than any other quarter I have tried to predict in awhile.

Seen RIMM? Up over $4 in the PM now.. its at $118! After a 13% up move on Friday, its up almost another 4% now.

Maybe growth is back in-vogue. RIMM here is baking in a 42-45% rise in earnings next year, AAPL only 18% so far - I know which should surprise to the upside, but irrespective of that, RIMM’s moon-shot bodes well for us. Both should have plenty of room to run.

I’d add, hold on for the ride, and be prepared to stop out on a fall under $159 if you’re trading.

Certainly high eps isgetting priced in right now, so even if aapl only matches expectations on the 22nd we may see a fall after. Or it could do a RIM. My plan is to not touch the core long-term but possibly accumulate if it drops below 157-158 over the next two weeks, selling the extra on the 22nd. i.e. betting that we will be high on the 22nd.

Anyone else got any feelings about the next couple of weeks?

LA Times flings some FUD at Apple, asks why its pissing so many people off, questions its greedy and arrogant tactics. See Breaking News.

Yeah, I should sell AAPL because some stupid cow from NYC with an unpronounceable name and a lawyer who can’t spell is suing AAPL due to the price drop, and some whiners got their iPhones bricked after Apple said that installing their software update could brick their phones

Duh…

[quote author=“mike_b”]Certainly high eps isgetting priced in right now, so even if aapl only matches expectations on the 22nd we may see a fall after. Or it could do a RIM. My plan is to not touch the core long-term but possibly accumulate if it drops below 157-158 over the next two weeks, selling the extra on the 22nd. i.e. betting that we will be high on the 22nd.

Anyone else got any feelings about the next couple of weeks?

strictly gut, but from a short-term trading perspective I decided Friday to get out of the way in October. Sold all my October calls (and left money on the table, unfortunately)and am now trying to decide where/how to get back in. November? January ‘08? April? To be brief, I guess I share Tommo’s sense that I have no sense where this all goes between here and earnings…

btw, thanks to all on the AFB who share their thinking. This is the greatest source of market wisdom I have found

[quote author=“emac”]
strictly gut, but from a short-term trading perspective I decided Friday to get out of the way in October. Sold all my October calls (and left money on the table, unfortunately)and am now trying to decide where/how to get back in. November? January ‘08? April? To be brief, I guess I share Tommo’s sense that I have no sense where this all goes between here and earnings…

btw, thanks to all on the AFB who share their thinking. This is the greatest source of market wisdom I have found

While I’m certainly not the most experienced trader on AFB (probably one of the least experienced, in fact), I think you did the right thing, getting out of your Oct calls now, even though you left money on the table.  I did the same thing, but about a week ago.  I was really burned, holding close term calls too long, so I’m trying to be more conservative, now.  That said, I do have some November calls, but they were purchased Oct 1, when they first came out.  I wouldn’t be comfortable buying them, now.  There well may be some sort of pullback prior to earnings, especially with OE coming up.  I might add to my options positions, if we see a pullback.  I believe I’ve learned enough to know that what goes up must come down before it goes up again.  While that may not always be the case, it sure seems to happen a lot, especially with AAPL.

I’m not Tommo but if I may, I would like to give my answer to this question, which is

From here to the 22nd, the stock will go up, maybe 175$, then keeping steady or a little bit on the downside (say 170$), I sell, then comes the Feds’ Halloween, the bears get in cause of the non-rate-cut, the market (and aapl) go down, I buy back at 145$ and then sell again at january Mcworld at 200$. there you have it, a small investor (and long time aapl watcher) 2 cents.  wink

GOOG hit $600 this morning, then backed off a bit. While this is strictly symbolic )see Tommo’s Fear of Round Numbers post), it looks like a bullish trend, at least for today.

[quote author=“pasdeniaisage”]From here to the 22nd, the stock will go up, maybe 175$, then keeping steady or a little bit on the downside (say 170$), I sell, then comes the Feds’ Halloween, the bears get in cause of the non-rate-cut, the market (and aapl) go down, I buy back at 145$ and then sell again at january Mcworld at 200$. there you have it, a small investor (and long time aapl watcher) 2 cents. 

Sounds like a decent plan, subject to events

However:

Market won’t give a damn about the Fed (though it will pretend it will) if earnings season goes well, UNLESS we get a “holiday season sales set to disappoint” bout of hysteria going. That would beget a massive gnashing of teeth that “the consumer is dead, the Fed killed the consumer, retail will be a disaster, and recession looms in early 2008”

To be honest, its not that unlikely. I can’t remember a single holiday shopping season in the last few years where there hasn’t been widespread angst and hysteria about what a “disaster this shopping season is going to be” due to the perennially “tapped-out consumer.”

And we know how strong sales have always turned out to be.

So I’d say, good strategy - historical precedent is on your side sentiment-wise, but I wouldn’t sell out of AAPL unless you see it break down technically on the chart - the chances of missing the next big thing are just too great, IMO, to risk being whipsawed out of it through fear of a pullback.

However, if the stock’s at $175 by earnings? A lot of people will be playing the same rulebook as you, for sure.

Yes, but the Rule of The Law of Round Numbers is that an uptrending stock hits it, pulls back 4-5%, and then powers through it.

RIMM is through (after a 4-5% pullback under 100). AAPL is through (after the 4-5% pullback from $160). GOOG should be next.

Frankly, if GOOG can’t be pushed through, I’ll actually become a bit concerned.

New All Time Intraday High at 165.02

Good Morning Boys and Girls

Woke up to see aapl going up and up.  WS appears to be treating this stock with more respect.

I decided of course to jump back on the train.  I am back in baby.

Lets go for a ride towards hugh gains in the coming months

What is impressive about the last two days, is that aapl is up and we really don’t have huge news.  No upgrades, no new rumors, and the market is not exactly stellar either.

[quote author=“omacvi”]Good Morning Boys and Girls

Woke up to see aapl going up and up.  WS appears to be treating this stock with more respect.

I decided of course to jump back on the train.  I am back in baby.

Lets go for a ride towards hugh gains in the coming months

Who are you and what have you done with the real omacvi?

JK