[quote author=“willrob”][quote author=“superbaka”]

What?? I looovve this kind of talk . Please please knock AAPL down to $130 before earnings so it can pop to $170 the next day.

You’re logic is faulty. The earnings report will likely give the current stock price a good ten dollar boost (at least for a while). But if it’s at 130 before the report, that will only bring it to 140. 170 is where we should be right now… although last month would have been just as justified if the sub-prime market mambo hadn’t happened.

What superbaka means is not necessarily next day (though I think AAPL can gap up $40 if the street recognizes actual earnings or Apple execs for a change decide to give anything remotely close to realistic guidance),  but the stock is knows to steadily climb after gapping up on earnings. If not next day, then next two weeks.
Bear in mind that Apple true potential is steal sealed. The street is only guesstimating with their 85 cents estimates and vaguely talking about the potential. They do not have actual numbers to put into spreadsheets. If they do, AAPL P/E will go to 50 and earnings estimates will go up 30% for 2008 and 50% for 2009. This would gap the stock to over $200.
It is very unlikely that it will happen all at Oct earnings, but I do not think Apple can hide its earnings potential for long.

Re: calls buying

[quote author=“mtjsTMO”]I’ve read that some ppl bought calls @ close. Please note that they where expensive.

Take jan 190 calls

was :

  stock price : $166.83 => call price $8

now :

  stock price : 162 => call price $8

If the stock remains the same tomorrow, the calls will go down with about 20%. Even if it rises .. the calls won’t rise along so much.

Only think that would make options go up as usual is that everyone takes current price as ‘right price’.

... should bought those $5 today… but is was OUT! AAAARGh! 

You are correct that Calls are expensive. Further the spread this afternoon were large.
This more than anything confirms that most people think believe that today was an aberration and will not impact what price Apple will be in Jan. or beyond.
Nearer term options seem to be better priced.

[quote author=“enature”]
What superbaka means is not necessarily next day (though I think AAPL can gap up $40 if the street recognizes actual earnings or Apple execs for a change decide to give anything remotely close to realistic guidance),

Gaping up like BIDU did last week ($39 in one day) leads to what happened to BIDU today (dropping $41 in a few hours). I’d prefer $1.50 or so per day between now and the 22nd. The price during and after earnings has my permission to rise astronomically as it see fit.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Un-fucking-believable… according to the IV board, Adami on CNBC just said Apple will miss estimates this quarter, and the stock is heading to $130. AH the stock dropped $1.

The poster on IV reports Adami saying:

“If there was ever a quarter they’re going to miss, it’s this one.”

Huh? How does he think they are going to miss 65c guidance??? Or even 85c??? Or even 95c???

Miss??? OMFG… this guy deserves to be sent to work for the National Enquirer.. how can he even begin to imagine they’re going to miss? How can he peddle such bullshit on TV?

He recommended buying RIMM instead

What rock does this guy live under? What a dick.

Look, I believe what you say about how good Apple stock is and you do show numbers to prove it.  But then why do guys like this step up and try to tear down the stock?  I’m sure he’s in the minority.  Maybe he has an investment in RIM?  Or maybe he wants to buy Apple at a cheaper price?  It’s very dangerous if the market can be manipulated so easily and quickly by a few words.

But either way, such off the wall remarks by some guy in a visible position can really scare investors.  I don’t know who this guy is or if he’s being paid by some power to say these things.  But I’m still very concerned that lots of investors and potential investors are going to believe what he said about Apple.

I’m also glad that RIM went down today and not just Apple.  I guess these happenings are a bit amusing to you, but it makes me concerned since I’m not using Monopoly money.  Sure what can go wrong?  In this world, you never know until it happens.  And no I did not sell any of my Apple stock today.

Unfortunately, not only will people like this say these type of things, people will actual listen and act on thier words.  This may effect the stock price short term, however, long term it is corporate earnings that drive stock prices. 

The short term volitility will both hurt and help the short term trader.  For the long term investor, it’s just short term noise.

It’s the third time for me…

First time in year 2000.
Second time in january, killed by Apple’s guidance…
And now.

I was looking at it in denial, fascinated… hoping it would reverse!
All the things you wouldn’t want to do!

My only “protection” was that it was money not needed and won in teh recent months with options… But CFDs with 10x margin are much more dangerous!

And I didn’t see today as a double top! Instead to sell at the top I loaded full margin!
I’m too much a believer in Apple that I forget often that AAPL is a different beast!

Thanks to everybody for the kind words!
But I won’t disappear… The won’t get me like this.
I’ll be more careful of this market from now on!
It’s much more scary than it was in year 2000…

The world of options has completely changed everything and it’s much more a casino game than anything else right now.

I’m sure there was a plan behind all this. How to rip off x number of people legally!
Do you realize how many billions have changed hands today, going mostly in the hands of the one who KNEW…

Congratulations anyway to some of you who played well this game!
The right way was to recognize the double top, sell everything at 170 and go short. I would have made a fortune!
But I was out some part of the recent rally and that’s the reason why I didn’t see anything!

[quote author=“aaplcat”]

Congratulations anyway to some of you who played well this game!
The right way was to recognize the double top, sell everything at 170 and go short. I would have made a fortune!
But I was out some part of the recent rally and that’s the reason why I didn’t see anything!

Hang in there we all have been there,  I am pretty well margined so if the stock goes to 130 I am royally FU***.

Apple will only go up so what you have left invest long term and you will make up everything you lost.

Long term APPL and Apple are winners.  We were all gamed today.  Hell, I lost a few thousand myself.  I do know that I (or should I say we) will win in the long run! 

I like the post-scriptum of this article, it is good for your mood for tomorrow(or today, it depends on what side of earth you are) : http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/10384053_2.html

Tomorrow’s Headliners: GE, Apple

...

“Meanwhile, the hot new iPhone could run into trouble in France, where a law requiring mobile networks to unlock their phones six months into a contract may prove to be a major problem for Apple (AAPL - Cramer’s Take - Stockpickr).

Apple’s going to need European buyers in order to keep the momentum going for its latest device, otherwise investors will be none too pleased. Columnist Brett Arends gets to bottom of whether Apple will be able to cope.

P.S. Even in a recession, this stock could still make you money!
Cramer believes this stock is undervalued, recession-proof and poised to deliver +30% in the next year, regardless of the state of the economy.”

Re: my 2 cents

[quote author=“pasdeniaisage”]................ not speaking of which, is anyone into vmware (vmw)? I was thinking buying some when it was 70$, now I’m really tempted to buy some even at 100$, I feel guilty of not following my instincts the first time. what do you think?

I own EMC instead.  VMware is a crowded trade.  Now that I think about it, EMC is pretty crowded too.  But in the end I believe there is less risk in EMC and just as much possibility of a takeover.

EMC’s market cap is still under $50B.  Just bite size for any of the really big boys, and only about 10B more than the VMWare that it still owns 80% of.

Re: AAPL Intraday Updates

[quote author=“enature”]

It is easy to plunge into the markets unprotected, but markets just wait for that - just that moment when you feel comfy and confident that nothing bad can happen, and then with just one good and quick blow, knock you out.
But if you are protected from the start, then markets only can take as much as you predetermined.
I do not want to sound preachy, but I was there myself, and do not want to see good AFB members disappear. I have seen a few in the last two years, come here, get excited about long-term AAPL prospects, misinterpret that as a green light to unprotected, highly leveraged short-term positions. Such positions might indeed work for some time, but then a moment comes, they get busted, and later see AAPL fly high, but them left dry.

Amen brother!

As usual you spell out the realities of trading nicely.

It’s been painfull for me to miss out on AAPL’s spike up the last week without me as I’ve been basically flat above 145 and only eaking out small gains in decay on my short puts.  For those who took profits before the drop - or had tight stops- nicely done!

I neither made or lost money on AAPL today (well ok - I actually made $203 ) but I scored big on NDX shorts

Sorry for those who feel “gamed” but NDX was clearly overextended as was AAPL - as others have pointed out.  It was run up with the markets - not because of it’s fundamentals (which the street still doesn’t recognize) but by momo traders and short squeezes There were no more shorts to squeeze and the longs stops were hit. BIDU was just the excuse needed to let the air out of the NDX bubble.  Live by the sword - die by the sword.

Technically the daily chart looks weak and we could see more downside - $150 would not suprise me.  But with earnings around the corner this only represents opportunity for us in the know.  Fundamentals will trump technicals for the long haul. I agree with Superbaka that a pullback now is actually good in the big picture - it presents a buying opportunity and makes a “sell the news” reaction to earnings less likely. 

If GOOG earnings on Friday bounces the NDX back up- Monday’s AAPL earning’s should bring fundamentals back in line with price and justify the recent analyst upgrades - allowing more conservative investors the confidence to safely buy more AAPL.

Many claim that yesterdays drop was due to shockingly low US oil reserves. Both AAPL and GOOG fell in the last hours of yesterday trading. This despite record-good marketshare firgures for GOOG and there where no news on AAPL. Panic driven fumble dubmle what to do, but do something fast.

Of course AAPL will miss the the Q4, they always do, on the upside.

These are cramps due to an intolerable clearer future-view on an impending bull market for coming years. The bucks stops here, ... sorry it should read ..., the bear market stops very very soon. We need to get the DJ up to the 2.000.000 mark before the end of this century, if we are to do equally well as our fathers and grandfathers did for the last 100 years.

Get mooving you beast ! Get at bear! 

[quote author=“aaplcat”]
...
My only “protection” was that it was money not needed and won in teh recent months with options… But CFDs with 10x margin are much more dangerous!

And I didn’t see today as a double top! Instead to sell at the top I loaded full margin!
I’m too much a believer in Apple that I forget often that AAPL is a different beast!

Thanks to everybody for the kind words!
But I won’t disappear… The won’t get me like this.
I’ll be more careful of this market from now on!
It’s much more scary than it was in year 2000…

It is only 11 months ago I’ve lost 70% of my WHOLE trading account on apple. Lesson very wel learnt. I’m still rebuilding those losses, I’m 1/3 on the way. It is a hard thing to do. And it is even harder to see the stock ramp up so high while only ‘in’ with small portions at the time, seeing it would be able to get all my losses back in ... 4 days or less. But I keep my money management so close as I can. Slowely going forward. And for that my loss yesterday wasn’t that big. I bought some more shares and calls at close and will keep moving forward till…

note: buying calls @ close was not the cleverest move, except if the stock goes UP tomorrow… 

[quote author=“Constable Odo”]
But either way, such off the wall remarks by some guy in a visible position can really scare investors.  I don’t know who this guy is or if he’s being paid by some power to say these things.  But I’m still very concerned that lots of investors and potential investors are going to believe what he said about Apple.

I’m also glad that RIM went down today and not just Apple.  I guess these happenings are a bit amusing to you, but it makes me concerned since I’m not using Monopoly money.  Sure what can go wrong?  In this world, you never know until it happens.  And no I did not sell any of my Apple stock today.

What Tommo says about Adami is true. He is a nobody with nothing in the pot. It is TV entertainment for heaven’s sake. The long time regulars on this board have heard it all before. ‘‘overpriced’’ ‘‘buy dell’’ etc. WE NEED THIS KIND OF TALK. If everybody agreed then the stock would never go up.  Just be sure you are positioned for the LONG TERM. Short term seekers of profit will have a tough time of it with AAPL because it swings like a penny stock. $140 to $112 to $170 to $152 all withing 6 weeks     Not for faint of heart but the norm with Apple and surprising for a 100+ Billion dollar company

[quote author=“aaplcat”]Congratulations anyway to some of you who played well this game!
The right way was to recognize the double top, sell everything at 170 and go short. I would have made a fortune!
But I was out some part of the recent rally and that’s the reason why I didn’t see anything!

aaplcat,

don’t beat yourself up on “not having seen this coming”, I think that practically none of AFB and others would have been able to foretell the whiplash to $153 and back up (especially this fast).