[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Wow.. 37.2% sales growth .. if you extended that to rest-of-world, it would mean Apple have indeed sold 2.2M Macs this quarter.

If that’s the case, and iPod sales are around 11M, then EPS for Q4 07 may be in the region of $1.10 - 1.15.

It looks to me like Gartner typically under-reports apple cpus.  The January 18 report for instance shows Apple at 808 thousand U.S. computer sales, with apple not appearing to garner enough marketshare in the rest of the world to be listed in the worldwide table. 

Real numbers, however, came in at 1,606,000 units, when Apple actually reported.  If the same holds true, we may actually see sales at 2.6 million units!  Nice, if it works out.

Gartner statistics one year ago for 3rd quarter of 2006:
Apple 975K units US.  Worldwide - not enough to show on the table.

Real numbers?

Apple ships Record 1.61 Million Macs (worldwide).

Taking that number and extrapolating at 37% gives us Tommo’s 2.2 million units (more or less) above.

Everything is down AH… EBAY gave up all of its gains, and is now down. Something they said during the CC maybe? Whatever it was, it spooked everyone by the look of it.

FWIW, if the Mac sales number is truly 2.2M and iPod sales are 11M+, AAPL will blow the doors off for earnings, and the stock is still dirt cheap given earnings growth.

They went into the red by $936 million due to Skype.

[quote author=“muckraker”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Wow.. 37.2% sales growth .. if you extended that to rest-of-world, it would mean Apple have indeed sold 2.2M Macs this quarter.

If that’s the case, and iPod sales are around 11M, then EPS for Q4 07 may be in the region of $1.10 - 1.15.

It looks to me like Gartner typically under-reports apple cpus.  The January 18 report for instance shows Apple at 808 thousand U.S. computer sales, with apple not appearing to garner enough marketshare in the rest of the world to be listed in the worldwide table. 

Real numbers, however, came in at 1,606,000 units, when Apple actually reported.  If the same holds true, we may actually see sales at 2.6 million units!  Nice, if it works out.

I don’t think we will see 2.6 million units sold.

Even my most aggressive expectations are set at 2.4 million units. I do see 3 million units this quarter.

[quote author=“muckraker”]Gartner statistics one year ago for 3rd quarter of 2006:
Apple 975K units US.  Worldwide
Apple ships Record 1.61 Million Macs (worldwide).

Taking that number and extrapolating at 37% gives us Tommo’s 2.2 million units (more or less) above.

Indeed, simple calculation using Gartner shows ( 1,61 / 975 * 1 338 = 2,20 mill Macs. And we have seen nothing yet, Apple has 29% of notebook market in US and I see it getting 50% by the end end of 2008. Halo effect is snowballing, same as earnings due to delayed and accumulating revenue from iPhone during the first 8 quarters from its release.

[quote author=“enature”][quote author=“muckraker”]Gartner statistics one year ago for 3rd quarter of 2006:
Apple 975K units US.  Worldwide
Apple ships Record 1.61 Million Macs (worldwide).

Taking that number and extrapolating at 37% gives us Tommo’s 2.2 million units (more or less) above.

Indeed, simple calculation using Gartner shows ( 1,61 / 975 * 1 338 = 2,20 mill Macs. And we have seen nothing yet, Apple has 29% of notebook market in US and I see it getting 50% by the end end of 2008. Halo effect is snowballing, same as earnings due to delayed and accumulating revenue from iPhone during the first 8 quarters from its release.

IDC estimates are much less optimistics :

US shipments 1.127M yoy growth 16%.

This would lead to 1.86M macs for Q4 and AAPL falling a cliff…

[quote author=“enature”][quote author=“muckraker”]Gartner statistics one year ago for 3rd quarter of 2006:
Apple 975K units US.  Worldwide
Apple ships Record 1.61 Million Macs (worldwide).

Taking that number and extrapolating at 37% gives us Tommo’s 2.2 million units (more or less) above.

Indeed, simple calculation using Gartner shows ( 1,61 / 975 * 1 338 = 2,20 mill Macs. And we have seen nothing yet, Apple has 29% of notebook market in US and I see it getting 50% by the end end of 2008. Halo effect is snowballing, same as earnings due to delayed and accumulating revenue from iPhone during the first 8 quarters from its release.

50% might be too optimistic.  A significant portion of the population makes purchasing decisions based primarily on price, so as long as Apple notebooks are perceived as being more expensive, those consumers will be shopping elsewhere.

3 new iPhone TV commercials….v cool

http://www.apple.com/iphone/ads/ad13/

I’m assuming apple is dropping in PM because of the ridiculous IDC number.  Personally, I don’t why IDC even tries:  Their estimate from the last quarter reported on July 18, 2007 was 960,000.  Real number (drumroll please…):  “Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh(R) computers, representing 33 percent growth.”

That’s a major difference.  Again, that could be because they don’t seem to believe that Apple’s worldwide share is significant enough to break out separately.  But with somewhere around half of sales occurring in non-US markets. You have to multiply 960,000 by about 1.83 to get the real number.

If we do that with their current number of 1,127,000 multiplied by 1.83 we get 2,062,410—still very healthy and above analyst estimates of 2 million.

If you split the very high estimate of 2.6 million by using my above Gartner number (from my one of my previous posts) and the IDC extrapolation of 2,062,410, we get somewhere around 2.3 million units. 

Hey, it’s an interesting exercise.  But, if we did the same calculations from previous quarters we would come out low!

[quote author=“muckraker”]I’m assuming apple is dropping in PM because of the ridiculous IDC number.

I think you need to look at the bigger picture. There have been some uninspiring earnings reports out and the whole market is looking a little soft.

[quote author=“wheeles”][quote author=“muckraker”]I’m assuming apple is dropping in PM because of the ridiculous IDC number.

I think you need to look at the bigger picture. There have been some uninspiring earnings reports out and the whole market is looking a little soft.

Could be, but Apple is often up when the rest of the market is down.  If not, why buy apple instead of the indices?

Most tech bellweather stocks are in the red in PM. Apple is capable of pulling away from the pack, but not on the low volumes PM has so far (127K shares with ten minutes till market open).

[quote author=“muckraker”]Could be, but Apple is often up when the rest of the market is down.

I think there are plenty of people on AFB who can remember times when that has been reversed!

Doubled up my buy SNDK Nov 50 calls…. short term flyer