Impressive Mac market share gains, strong INTC earnings report and Apple’s results to be released Monday after the closing bell.

AAPL: Buy now or after the earnings release on Monday?

Re: AAPL: Buy Now or Buy Later?

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]Impressive Mac market share gains, strong INTC earnings report and Apple’s results to be released Monday after the closing bell.

AAPL: Buy now or after the earnings release on Monday?

Everyone using a financial model is forecasting a solid beat… Deagol, Caligula, Tommo, myself included.

Given that collectively we’ve been much more accurate than the analysts, I’d say buy now and get in before the monster Q1 results get reported in January.

HAB

[quote author=“SNIPUS”]May I strongly suggest anyone contemplating buying LEAPS that they put their position on BEFORE earnings release. It will be clear that Apple’s new straight line accounting will ramp cash flow big time starting next year. Part of the curtain will be slid back with the AT&T revenue share percentage. And in late Jan 08 it should totally be apparent what the deals are with Europe and Asian telcos are (I believe the Apple share will be lower with T than the others because of them backing Apple’s phone 3 years ago) My guess is 10/20% for AT&T and 30% for the others… although I would be interested if someone else has ideas along the share percentages

Even the dumbest suit on WS should figure this out. Some already have which is why the premiums are so huge, but still a bargain IMO

Does anyone have an idea how Apple’s share price will move in the couple of days leading up to and after the earnings report which is supposed to be a good one?

For instance, after the stock climbs up on earnings report will the stock sell off ($5 - $10) the next day or so after earnings are reported or will it just stay up for a couple of days to a week.  Or will it just continue to rise and fall in small increments until the end of the year.

I’m probably be asking a stupid question, but I was just wondering if there is some pattern it usually follows.  Many of you follow this sort of stuff very closely and might have some idea.

[quote author=“Constable Odo”]Does anyone have an idea how Apple’s share price will move in the couple of days leading up to and after the earnings report which is supposed to be a good one?

For instance, after the stock climbs up on earnings report will the stock sell off ($5 - $10) the next day or so after earnings are reported or will it just stay up for a couple of days to a week.  Or will it just continue to rise and fall in small increments until the end of the year.

I’m probably be asking a stupid question, but I was just wondering if there is some pattern it usually follows.  Many of you follow this sort of stuff very closely and might have some idea.

There sometimes seems to be no rhyme or reason.
Looking at the last 4 earnings

Q4 beat by 10% -> +6% 1 day, +6% 10days
Q1 beat by 50% -> -7% 1 day, -10% 10days
Q2 beat by 20% -> +4% 1 day, +12% 10days
Q3 beat by 20% -> +6% 1day, -2% 10days.

Here’s a historical result from Whispernumber.com

I’m not sure we can reliably measure post-earnings share price performance based on historical data. There are far too many new variables in the mix including the release of Leopard, deferred income recognition on iPhone sales, the AT&T monthly contract payment and the astounding gain in market share for the Mac.