I’ve been trading for about two years now - two years in January.  This board is fantastic and it is nice to see a lot of newbies.  Makes me feel not so “new” although my two years of trading doesn’t qualify me as a seasoned analyst.  But if I would say something like a depression was on the way then I am sure I could come up with a nice corporate name and a gig on CNBC as they love getting anyone to speak doom and gloom.  I won’t do that.

For the newbies it’s important to figure out your risk tolerance and what type of trading you are good at and enjoy.  There are so many things to learn but one part of trading that is so important is human emotion.  Both in the market and more importantly you the trader.  I was tempted to sell Wed. after hours when the stock was looking like it would take a hit.  I was partly being greedy not wanting to lose any upside even though I was sitting on a very big gain for the year - more than I had hoped for going into 2007.  I also didn’t want to be irrational though and sell prematurely.  I thought 185-86 had been tested enough that it would resist but that wasn’t to be the case as we all knew.

I then watched the stock fall Thurs and Friday and for some reason was too greedy (not saying everyone who held is greedy but for me it was greed) and held on.  Today I tried repositioning my portfolio a couple times at lower “bottoms” but realized I would not be able to pick it.  At 162 I sold my portfolio.  I did a few day trades but in the end for the first time in almost two years am sitting with no apple, only cash in my portfolio.  I’ll be in 100% including heavily margined once we get a bottom. 

It was a big day for me emotionally though as a trader to realize what my goals are, how I want to trade personally and not let my emotions get in the way.  This post is more for the newbie, not the seasoned trader who could easily post a message for me to learn from.  I’m also not calling anyone greedy for holding.  Please don’t think that is the case.

Personally I just couldn’t watch the stock drop and drop and see my profits dwindle.  I’m about 1 month away from selling my business and hope to earn some “part time cash” trading as I retire “part time.”  I forget who on this board hates full time traders so my apologies for my career change.

Enough rambling from me tonight.  I hope the newbie like me can learn from this correction and put it to good use in the future.  Good Luck everyone!!!

By the way - I’m only 39…

If only I were a genius.  I’d be calling tops, calling bottoms, moving in, moving out, scalping a point here and there, covering and moving all-in just at the perfect moment.  But alas, I am not.

So I multiply 25x $7.00 ‘08 cash flow and get $175.  Then I do a little more math.  If my predcition of 30% growth comes to pass, then a year from now the ‘09 CF estimate ought to be about $9.10.  25x $9.10 = $227.50.

Current price is appx. $170, so that is about 34%.  I can live with that.  And if other stocks do better, fine.  But I don’t know of another stock where I am this confident of 30% growth.

And I don’t think it ends in ‘09 either.  The Mac is superior.