Thank you awcabot. I got $211 ASP using 180 for the nanos. So, is Munster’s revenue estimate really over $11 billion?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“deagol”]
Thanks Tommo. My iPod ASP is slightly up at $165 vs $163 last year and $159 last quarter. $120 million from revenue share doesn’t contribute that much yet. $466 million in SW sales includes a nice Leopard boost. Gross margins at 34.5%.
Pushing iPod ASP’s to $170, SW to $500 million, and 36% GM gives me $9.94b in revenue and $1.95 EPS. What else are you seeing?

I see iPod ASPs going over $200 thanks to the mix, the popularity of the nano and the availability of the touch. Hugely-rising iPod ASPs has been a pet theme of mine since August and I’m still confident its going to come about.

iPhone subscriber revenue sharing I’m pegging at $220M for the quarter.

I also think GMs are going to be around 36% (and possibly higher, though I know that’s hard to swallow) - margins on this year’s iPods are better, as they are on Macs. Taking additional AppleCare sales into account too and I think there’s a lot “hidden” from obvious view.

My iPod mix is as follows:

Nano 4GB $149.00 21%
Nano 8GB $199.00 24%
Touch 8GB $299.00 9%
Touch 16GB $399.00 9%
Shuffle       $79.00   20%
Classic 80GB $249.00 8%
Classic 160GB $349.00 9%

This gives a $209 ASP. This is actually down from Munster’s originally mix numbers to account for gift giving of less Touches, but increases Classics per his research.

I think a ~$200 ASP is probably a given this quarter IMO.

HAB

The web orders for December were softer than I was projecting, but I’m hoping this means a higher share of retail sales, which still leaves the ratio within the seasonal range. Next week (after the keynote) I’ll have a shot at the most influential factor (more so than the past quarter EPS number, IMO) on the stock price around the earnings report: the guidance estimate.

3m ending on Dec-2007:
Apple gd: $9.2 b rev, $1.42 EPS
Analysts: $9.39b rev, $1.57 EPS
My estmt: $9.71b rev, $1.80 EPS
25M iPods, 2.25M Macs

12m ending on Sep-2008:
My estmt: $32.85b rev, $5.46 EPS
Analysts: $31.71b rev, $5.08 EPS

Valuation (25 Ч fwd EPS):
Jan-2008 (fair value): $158, -12% dnside (Jan-2009 EPS $6.31)
Dec-2008 (12m target): $199, +11% upside (Dec-2009 EPS $7.97)
Analysts mean target : $214, +19% upside

http://www.esnips.com/web/aaplweborders

[quote author=“deagol”]
Thanks Tommo. My iPod ASP is slightly up at $165 vs $163 last year and $159 last quarter.

I just realized this seems inaccurate. My estimated iPod ASP for the quarter is actually about $172 ($165 is for the whole 2007 calendar year). I’ve edited the post to clarify it.

[quote author=“deagol”][quote author=“deagol”]
Thanks Tommo. My iPod ASP is slightly up at $165 vs $163 last year and $159 last quarter.

I just realized this seems inaccurate. My estimated iPod ASP for the quarter is actually about $172 ($165 is for the whole 2007 calendar year).

Thanks for your numbers Deagol.. I still think you’re way low, chiefly due to my long-standing belief that gross margins and iPod ASPs will be surprisingly high this Q , but we’ll know in a couple of weeks now

[quote author=“deagol”][quote author=“deagol”]
Thanks Tommo. My iPod ASP is slightly up at $165 vs $163 last year and $159 last quarter.

I just realized this seems inaccurate. My estimated iPod ASP for the quarter is actually about $172 ($165 is for the whole 2007 calendar year). I’ve edited the post to clarify it.

Hi deagol, thanks for posting your estimate.
I originally posted my estimate back in Dec on q1 08 earning discussion as follows,
Mac Sales 2.3m (RBC 2.4m, BS 2m) - ASP @1,550
ipod sales 24m (BS 25m) - ASP @175
iphone sales 1.8m (RBC 1.65m) Rev. for 1Q $254m
Leopard upgrade 5m copies, $465m (this is totally guess)
TOTAL SALES 10.174 B
Cost of sales 66% (last 3 qtrs 66%, 63.1%, 65%), so this could be lower.
Operating expense 12% (last year 13%)
Tax rate 31% (last year 30.66%)
EPS $1.90

Since then, I revised mine as follows after reading this topic.
Mac Sales 2.3m (RBC 2.4m, BS 2m) - @1,500ASP
ipod sales 27m (BS 25m) - ASP @175
iphone sales 2.8m (RBC 1.65m) Rev. for 1Q $310m
Leopard upgrade 5m copies, $465m (this is totally guess) on top of Software, service, and other sales of 500m.
Other music related products 840m (up 40%, same as last year)
Peripherals and other hardware 350m
TOTAL SALES 10.64 B
gross margin 65% (last 3 qtrs 66%, 63.1%, 65%)
Operating expense 12% (last year 13%)
Tax rate 31% (last year 30.66%)
EPS $2.01 based on estimated share 900,000
HOWEVER, if ipod sales tops 30m with ASP @200, EPS could be @2.28
Is my estimate of iphone sales 2.8m too optimistic??
Appreciate your input. thanks!

FUJI, all your numbers seem to me within reasonable ranges, except the “Software, service, and other sales of 500m” on top of 465m for Leopard. I would tone it down (by about 30% but that’s just me).

2.8m iPhones is OK (I’m at 2.6m). But whatever the final number of iPhone units sold, it doesn’t affect this quarter’s revenue number that much.

Thanks for your feedback as well.

[quote author=“deagol”]
2.8m iPhones is OK (I’m at 2.6m). But whatever the final number of iPhone units sold, it doesn’t affect this quarter’s revenue number that much.

Everyone please contrast and compare these reasonable iPhone projections with the FUD numbers. Let us not be disappointed when the real number comes in at 2.5m or 2.8m.

[quote author=“capablanca”][quote author=“deagol”]
2.8m iPhones is OK (I’m at 2.6m). But whatever the final number of iPhone units sold, it doesn’t affect this quarter’s revenue number that much.

Everyone please contrast and compare these reasonable iPhone projections with the FUD numbers. Let us not be disappointed when the real number comes in at 2.5m or 2.8m.

Figures are compatible:

Q307 .27M
Q407 1.39M
Q108 2.8M
Q208 first 3 weeks 0.65M

total 5.11M to date to be reported at MW keynote

[quote author=“sleepygeek”]Figures are compatible:

Q307 .27M
Q407 1.39M
Q108 2.8M
Q208 first 3 weeks 0.65M

total 5.11M to date to be reported at MW keynote

Well, my own math was:  .27 + . 1.39 + 2.70 = 4.36.

However, looking back at the relevant thread, while I was measuring to the end of the quarter, most posters were indeed including the first three weeks of January.  So I’ll concede your point, but I wish we would not get into this to-date type of measurement.  It reminds me too much of how MSFT counts Zune sales. 

If previous form is repeated, an announcement might take the form of “on January 11th (or whenever), we sold our 5 (or 4) millionth iPhone”. Or even “in the next feww days we expect to”.

Not saying that a 5M announcement is likely, just that it’s very compatible with other estimates, including the start of the 6th IMEI block.

[quote author=“sleepygeek”]If previous form is repeated, an announcement might take the form of “on January 11th (or whenever), we sold our 5 (or 4) millionth iPhone”. Or even “in the next feww days we expect to”.

Not saying that a 5M announcement is likely, just that it’s very compatible with other estimates, including the start of the 6th IMEI block.

I agree and could even hear
‘’ We will sell our 5 millionth iPhone in February’’

[quote author=“capablanca”][quote author=“sleepygeek”]Figures are compatible:

Q307 .27M
Q407 1.39M
Q108 2.8M
Q208 first 3 weeks 0.65M

total 5.11M to date to be reported at MW keynote

Well, my own math was:  .27 + . 1.39 + 2.70 = 4.36.

Apple did not sell 1.39 M in Q407. That was the cumulative total sales at the end of Q4 (1.12 M in Q4 + 0.27 in Q3).

[quote author=“LessSpaceThanANomad”]Figures are compatible:Apple did not sell 1.39 M in Q407. That was the cumulative total sales at the end of Q4 (1.12 M in Q4 + 0.27 in Q3).

oops, sorry! You are right; it was a 10K I checked; not a 10Q. 5M for Macworld is indeed a stretch.

Strong Buy

[list]Revealed iPhone and Leopard sales appear inline with model’s estimates.
Tweaked model to account for Mac Pro and MacBook Air (higher AUPs), Time Capsule, Apple TV, and movie rentals.
Added new tab to compare historical (last two years) stock prices vs. model’s targets/fair value.
This update gets archived as the final F08Q1 version.
Guidance seems inline to slightly below Wall Street consensus estimates.
AAPL is once again a strong buy at these depressed levels (anything close to $160). Be careful on the short term choppiness.
Good luck to everyone next week. GO APPLE![/list:u]

3m ending on Dec-2007:
Apple gd: $9.2 b rev, $1.42 EPS
Analysts: $9.44b rev, $1.61 EPS
My estmt: $9.71b rev, $1.80 EPS
25M iPods, 2.25M Macs

3m ending on Mar-2008:
My estmt: $7.21b rev, $1.18 EPS
Analysts: $6.97b rev, $1.09 EPS
Apple gd (my est): $6.85b rev, $0.93 EPS

12m ending on Sep-2008:
My estmt: $33.20b rev, $5.55 EPS
Analysts: $31.77b rev, $5.13 EPS

Valuation (25 Ч fwd EPS):
Mar-2008 (fair value): $160, + 0% upside (Mar-2009 EPS $6.42)
Dec-2008 (12m target): $200, +25% upside (Dec-2009 EPS $8.01)
Analysts mean target : $214, +34% upside

http://www.esnips.com/web/aaplweborders