[quote author=“mtjsTMO”]So basicly max pain applies when then stock hits max pain ? I’ve followed max main a lot of months and I didn’t see any real pattern that pinned the stock. Sometimes it did, sometimes it didn’t.

Look, if the stock is at $190, and Max Pain is at $170, its going to be a tall order to see that have any effect on the stock. Its unlikely that MP will exert much of an effect, and lots of options holders are going to be raking in the profits.

If the stock is at $170, and MP is @ $170, its far more likely the stock will be unable to break free from the pull of MP until expirations are over. Common sense really - once you’re in orbit, its far harder to break free than if you’re already in deep space

Note: AAPL is @ 170. RIMM is @ 112.50. BRCM is @ $30. CSCO is @ $30.

I suppose this “pinning action” is totally coincidental?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Doug Kass, who was “all in long” this morning, now says you should sell some right now. Christ, these guys at thestreet.com are totally bi-polar.

Doug Kass
Seize This Moment to Pare Back Longs
11/13/2007 3:30 PM EST
For those who experienced too much pain over the last few weeks and are still too long, this rally is a gift.

Take advantage of this gift and pare back positions to more manageable levels.

It is the prudent and sensible thing to do.

The next few weeks will not be one-way. It will be an exquisite time to trade opportunistically on both sides.

Carpe diem.

LOL!

I don’t follow Doug “the Bear” Kass but that quote seems pretty dead on IMO.

I have no idea if this is bottom forming or a bounce of the gato muerto variety.  I do know that we’re in an excellent *Trading* environment where even novice day traders like me can make money - providing some discipline is deployed.

I’m staying long AAPL and a few other stocks but definitely hedging agressively and trading both long and short on the indices as conditions dictate.

I won’t let my guard down until we get a strong close above 1490 on the SPX. 

In the meantime - if you’re a trader - you’ve gotta love this volatility!

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Doug Kass, who was “all in long” this morning, now says you should sell some right now. Christ, these guys at thestreet.com are totally bi-polar.

Would that make Doug Kass a Bi-Polar Bear? 

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”] ... If the stock breaks away from the $170 level then there’s nothing to hold it back from $180 IMO. I just don’t expect that to happen unless we get a monster upgrade or some hot hot news.

What number at what kind of volume would you consider breaking away in the sense that it would be unlikely to return to this level?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“mtjsTMO”]So basicly max pain applies when then stock hits max pain ? I’ve followed max main a lot of months and I didn’t see any real pattern that pinned the stock. Sometimes it did, sometimes it didn’t.

Look, if the stock is at $190, and Max Pain is at $170, its going to be a tall order to see that have any effect on the stock. Its unlikely that MP will exert much of an effect, and lots of options holders are going to be raking in the profits.

If the stock is at $170, and MP is @ $170, its far more likely the stock will be unable to break free from the pull of MP until expirations are over. Common sense really - once you’re in orbit, its far harder to break free than if you’re already in deep space

Note: AAPL is @ 170. RIMM is @ 112.50. BRCM is @ $30. CSCO is @ $30.

I suppose this “pinning action” is totally coincidental?

Coincidental is my take. Maybe max pain has some effect, maybe it hasn’t. I just don’t think this is the reason why the stock is around 170. Let’s agree not to agree.

While I value your input a LOT, I hate when you talk about max pain. It somehow draws down the quality of your posts. It is like s.jobs would go on stage, release a new product and say ‘batteries not included’. Or something like that.

And there goes the stock. It is all your fault!  169.3

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“wheeles”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Doug Kass, who was “all in long” this morning, now says you should sell some right now. Christ, these guys at thestreet.com are totally bi-polar.

Would that make Doug Kass a Bi-Polar Bear? 

Amongst many other things

Our pet pig is having some bacon rind trimmed off into the close. Can’t hold the highs, but hey, we’re up 10% on 60M shares, so WTF.

I agree. I think it was important that we didn’t even pull back much and that really showed strenght. Hey, another one of those days, and we are back in OTH territory! 

But I doubt - any take on tomorrow? First a nice rally and then profit taking?

[quote author=“mtjsTMO”]While I value your input a LOT, I hate when you talk about max pain. It somehow draws down the quality of your posts. It is like s.jobs would go on stage, release a new product and say ‘batteries not included’. Or something like that.

Pinning action isn’t something I’ve made up.. its a reality, well-documented, and I’m surprised you dismiss it so easily. As for Max Pain, I think you are confusing my discussion of this with discussion of conspiracy theories. The two are not necessarily connected, and I’m not saying there’s any “conspiracy” at work today.  There can be perfectly good mechanical and technical explanations for the Max Pain effect, so I don’t feel the need to either defend my observations or its existence

Having said that, isn’t it convenient that the stock has been slaughtered from $192 to $151, and now does, indeed, sit exactly at Max Pain in time for OE, and set to screw as many retail options holders as possible

Almost 170.

Who would have tought?

Great job lets see what the rest of the week will look like

Closed just under 170. I have 169.96 - great day!

61.5 million shares and up $16.

This to me means that aapl will never reach 150 again, unless it splits

Tommo- you are scary accurate and an invaluable “analyst” for us here… Good work!  Why don’t we all let Tommo handle our money and we’ll work on our golf game or just drink.

If someone had told me yesterday that we would close at this level, I would have gladly had their babies (and I’m a man).

I don’t know you have already seen this:

Mac claims more Japan OS sales than Windows

“sales of Mac OS X increased dramatically between September and October, climbing from a rate of 15.5 percent year-over-year to 60.5 percent, Microsoft suffered from the reverse effect. Sales growth of Windows plummeted from 75.3 percent to 28.7 percent. The sudden switch provided Apple with about 53.9 of the total OS-only marketshare in Japan during October”

http://www.electronista.com/articles/07/11/13/mac.up.win.down.in.japan/

[quote author=“runedge”]Tommo- you are scary accurate and an invaluable “analyst” for us here… Good work!  Why don’t we all let Tommo handle our money and we’ll work on our golf game or just drink.

I second that.

Where do I send my $2 million in aapl stock.

[quote author=“omacvi”]Almost 170.

Who would have tought?

Great job lets see what the rest of the week will look like

Yesterday I predicted a start of the “panic buy”......this might be it. Next Q will be massive: this christmas will rock like it never did before. wouldn’t be surprised if Apple annouces video-rental before christmas.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“mtjsTMO”]While I value your input a LOT, I hate when you talk about max pain. It somehow draws down the quality of your posts. It is like s.jobs would go on stage, release a new product and say ‘batteries not included’. Or something like that.

Pinning action isn’t something I’ve made up.. its a reality, well-documented, and I’m surprised you dismiss it so easily. As for Max Pain, I think you are confusing my discussion of this with discussion of conspiracy theories. The two are not necessarily connected, and I’m not saying there’s any “conspiracy” at work today.  There can be perfectly good mechanical and technical explanations for the Max Pain effect, so I don’t feel the need to either defend my observations or its existence

Having said that, isn’t it convenient that the stock has been slaughtered from $192 to $151, and now does, indeed, sit exactly at Max Pain in time for OE, and set to screw as many retail options holders as possible

Yes and someone with 60mio shares pinned it to 170 today (joke intended)

I’ll shut up about pinning down stocks @ certain prices and try to read up on it And if the stock ends around 170 +/- 0.05 on OE friday then I’ll eat my shoe (or one made of choclat).