just a quick post to keep up with the flow

Happy to see AAPL at these levels again! Though I still have some cash on my hands (8% of AAPL equity), I won’t complain as I was able to buy all the way down, including some April $200 calls which are nicely up

Monday between 1:30 and 1:40 aapl dropped below 160 on the way to the 153 area. It opened Tues am over 160. There wasn’t a very long window to take advantage of the < 160 pricing. Like a few others I went all in Monday AM. Monday afternoon was over analysis “crying in your beer” time. But just like a doctor’s prescription ” take two of these and call me in the morning ” relief was only a restless night away. Thanks to this board for the confidence to step into a free fall and reach for the ring. Never would have done it two years ago. The craps table comparison was great except that I’ve never shot dice with this big a bankroll. Should sleep well tonight.

This is the dip that I was waiting for - I reloaded with an extra 1000 long AAPL at $160.

[quote author=”$Billyall”]
Now I will have a little more pull in the future since I bought in Aug 16th 2 dollars away from the low of 111.xx and now yesterday 10 dollars away from the low of 150.xx Not perfect but pretty good for a non trader just looking to add to a long term position as I get more capital available. (selling blood, plasma, and unnecessary organs) 

A margin call from Pops is a lot less painful than from the boys down at Ameritrade!

But don’t sell you liver - you might need it in case we have another $40 dip. 

[quote author=“johnhalk”]This is the dip that I was waiting for - I reloaded with an extra 1000 long AAPL at $160.

Braggart!   

Glad to see the confidence.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“johnhalk”]This is the dip that I was waiting for - I reloaded with an extra 1000 long AAPL at $160.

Braggart!   

Glad to see the confidence.

Dawn, you are always to nice. This is the same person who was wondering if 175 was a good entry point on Oct 27. I am leary of people who have such few post and somehow manage to scrape up 160,000 on a whim. I think that is part of why people respect Tommo so much, is because he puts his position out there for all to see.    And yes I have returned from my couple of days off to clear my head and pick up the pieces, it is amazing what a $16 move up can do for the psyche.

I know the feeling.  I set my strategy last Jan.  I would be all in by Aug 1 and stay in until Jan 08.  80% of my portfolio is AAPL common bought at 138 ( with proceeds from buying at $7.49 in 2003).  The other 20% is Jan 200 calls.  I went to a business conference in September at a resort casino and the $25 minimum craps table wasn’t even interesting.  I kept thinking about the 6 figures I had riding on AAPL.  It’s taken a lot of willpower NOT to do anything stupid over the last 5 days.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“johnhalk”]This is the dip that I was waiting for - I reloaded with an extra 1000 long AAPL at $160.

Braggart!   

Glad to see the confidence.

I have been a regular reader of the TMO AAPL finance forums for a couple of years and I find them the most valuable information wise in the world of Apple stock.

I am not a trader but a long term investor. My goal is to build a large holding of AAPL stock by regularly buying AAPL stock every month. Sort of like a investment plan.

AAPL will crack $500+ it’s only a question of how many years it will take to do it.

I am off to Macworld expo again in 2008. Anyone else planning to go ?

AAPL at almost $175 in European trading PM. Euro FGDP growth was better than expected. Higher demand for Apple products this Christmas than expected?

Not higher than we expect of course… but a heads-up for the cows.

News of a bidding war between China Mobile and Unicom is breaking out - that’s just what we need. And then a launch to 100M subscribers in China - oh joy, joy

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]AAPL at almost $175 in European trading PM. Euro FGDP growth was better than expected. Higher demand for Apple products this Christmas than expected?

Not higher than we expect of course… but a heads-up for the cows.

News of a bidding war between China Mobile and Unicom is breaking out - that’s just what we need. And then a launch to 100M subscribers in China - oh joy, joy

Indeed US market AAPL early PM is 174.32 atm (on 1.6k shares )

On the china story, I’ve found this reuters thingie :

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSHKG11318220071114?pageNumber=2

Stating that the iphone is unfit for the chinese market and that the talks are about as deep as saying ‘good day’ on the street while passing each other…

It also states that the china story got the stock up 10%, wich I think is untrue since the story broke monday, and went only mainstream mid day yesterday (if my memory serves me right a bit)

[quote author=“mtjsTMO”]Stating that the iphone is unfit for the chinese market and that the talks are about as deep as saying ‘good day’ on the street while passing each other…

It also states that the china story got the stock up 10%, wich I think is untrue since the story broke monday, and went only mainstream mid day yesterday (if my memory serves me right a bit)

The media need an explanation for everything except the obvious - that AAPL was grossly oversold and dirt cheap
There couldn’t be a phone better suited to China. With its virtual keyboard and adaptable screen, the iPhone can be better-tailored for Asian languages than any other phone.

Try squeezing 3500 characters on a Blackberry keyboard roll:

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]
Try squeezing 3500 characters on a Blackberry keyboard roll:

It exists! And it is called ‘very very large blackberry’ 

Can’t wait till the markets are open!

Check this simple chart

Note the 10 and 20 DMA are probably going to show a bearish crossover unless the stock can keep hold of this $5 pre-market pop. There could still be a lot more short-term volatility ahead.

Also note RSI is just under 50.

Today’s going to see some interesting action. I won’t feel (relatively) safe until $180 is once more firmly behind us.

I still think we could see $200+ for December though.

“Market moving” economic news due out in 90mins:

PPI/Core PPI inflation numbers
Retail Sales/ex-Autos Retail Sales
Inventories (in 120mins)

Interesting observation by poster aaplFAN on the IV board about Max Pain, the QQQQs and AAPL:

Thoughts on AAPL, QQQQ, and max pain
As of the close yesterday, max pain for AAPL looks to be anywhere in the $165-175 range. I say range only because there is little difference at any of these strikes with respect to overall option contracts in the money. Typically, AAPL finishes within about a stike of max pain. We are already there and I expect us to be rangebound until late Friday.
The QQQQ (recall AAPL is ~10% of the QQQQ), on the other hand, have their max pain in the $52-53 range. The Qs are currently trading down at $50.6. Based on looking at historical data for the Qs, they almost always finish on or very near max pain. So the Qs need to come up about $1.5 by Friday unless the open interest changes significantly before then.
So I believe there is more upside to the Qs in the next few days and I also believe that the pressures to have the Qs close at max pain is stronger than the pressure to have AAPL at its.
My guess for Friday - and believe me that’s all it is - AAPL will be between $175-180, QQQQ will be between $52-53.

With AAPL, GOOG, etc all such large components of the QQQQs, these stocks will need to be bid-up hard for the QQQQs to close at Max Pain, he is saying.

AAPL at $173 in the PM.