This is so huge I can’t even get my head around all the implications:
SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 19, 2007 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/—The Open Group, a vendor- and technology-neutral consortium focused on open standards and global interoperability within and between enterprises, today announced that both Mac OS X Leopard and Mac OS X Server Leopard from Apple Inc. have been awarded a certificate of conformance to the UNIX(R) 03 standard. UNIX 03 is the certification mark for systems conforming to the latest UNIX product standard developed by The Open Group Platform Forum for the Single UNIX Specification version 3.
This certification is significant as it further broadens the installed base of UNIX systems in the marketplace to include a popular desktop platform. In addition, Apple’s UNIX 03 certification is a milestone for the UNIX certification program since Mac OS X is the first operating system derived from the open source BSD base of historical UNIX products to meet the certification requirements.
The Single UNIX Specification is a set of open specifications that define the requirements for a conformant UNIX system. Operating systems that support the Single UNIX Specification provide a set of standard interfaces allowing the rich catalog of back office and other applications that comply with the specification to be easily ported between the compliant operating systems. With certification of Mac OS X, end users now benefit from such applications available on a range of certified UNIX 03 systems available from major vendors, including Apple, Fujitsu, IBM, Hewlett-Packard, and Sun Microsystems.
“For over ten years, the Single UNIX Specification has consistently provided both scalability and stability to end users—one hallmark of a tried and true technology standard,” said Allen Brown, president and CEO for The Open Group. “Operating platforms conforming to the UNIX 03 standard assures enterprises with industrial strength products, as well as an opportunity to avoid limited choice in vendor partnership. In achieving UNIX 03 certification, Apple has shown true commitment to its customers in providing open solutions that are warranted and fully supported.”
About The Open Group
The Open Group is a vendor-neutral and technology-neutral consortium, which drives the creation of Boundaryless Information Flow(TM) that will enable access to integrated information within and between enterprises based on open standards and global interoperability. The Open Group works with customers, suppliers, consortia and other standard bodies. Its role is to capture, understand and address current and emerging requirements, establish policies and share best practices; to facilitate interoperability, develop consensus, and evolve and integrate specifications and open source technologies; to offer a comprehensive set of services to enhance the operational efficiency of consortia; and to operate the industry’s premier certification service. Further information on The Open Group can be found at http://www.opengroup.org
Leopard is now offically the ONLY popular desktop version of standard Unix. Leopard is now certified as being able to run an enterprise’s proprietary applications. This removes all barriers for enterprise that wants to switch to Xserve machines.
It means that Microsoft is now the ONLY Proprietary operating system in existence, and we know what happens to proprietary operating systems. By keeping the DOS foundation for Vista, Microsoft has painted itself into a corner and faces extinction. I could go on and on, but suffice it to say we have turned a significant corner in the history of the computer.
How many years before Microsoft is a minority OS ?
Are we talking mind share or market share ? :Ю
Within 10 years no one will think about “operating systems”. Those days will end very soon. OS’es will become a part of the package - just like a compressor in a refrigerator. Users will not be interested in weather their “refrigerator” is powered by this or that OS”. They will only be interested in the refrigerator itself, but mostly in the stuff inside. What brand name is your digital refrigerator ? What does it do for you ?
Sу, - yes I think Microsoft will become a minority OS mind-share-thing very soon, simply because they wont be shipping those boxes with their own logo on the outside and on the customer invoice. But Apple certainly will ! Both the digital refrigerator and all digital cool things. And it will be in the press - all over the globe! - every day!
Band Names - Mind Shares. Who owns the customer? The subcontractor or The Mother ?
How many years before Microsoft is a minority OS ?
Are we talking mind share or market share ? :Ю
Within 10 years no one will think about “operating systems”. Those days will end very soon. OS’es will become a part of the package - just like a compressor in a refrigerator. Users will not be interested in weather their “refrigerator” is powered by this or that OS”. They will only be interested in the refrigerator itself, but mostly in the stuff inside. What brand name is your digital refrigerator ? What does it do for you ?
Sу, - yes I think Microsoft will become a minority OS mind-share-thing very soon, simply because they wont be shipping those boxes with their own logo on the outside and on the customer invoice. But Apple certainly will ! Both the digital refrigerator and all digital cool things. And it will be in the press - all over the globe! - every day!
Band Names - Mind Shares. Who owns the customer? The subcontractor or The Mother ?
Xumbra, I completely agree with you and it always was tough to me to fully understand MS business when it started. I don’t know what age are you but what you describe is what the computer industry was in the early days. In those days each computer brand had its own operating system, although manufacturers barely mentioned it with that name nor people understood what part of the entire computer this term referred to. You used to buy a computer not because of the operating system but for its raw power or its ability to run specific software. The underlining operating system was not so important. So yes, people will begin to look at what they need with a computer to do, or what they will be able to do with a specific brand. Apple understands very well this new (or should I say old) paradigm. The Mac started in the times where the software was tightly tied to the hardware, and this whole is what made brand differences. Apple continues with that model, which definitely is the way to go. Microsoft model worked initially only because IBM licensed its IBM PC computer hardware, which eventually became the standard. But his model is now extinct and unrealistic. I have no doubt that Apple will eventually dominate (again) the computer industry some time in the future.
I don’t know what age are you but what you describe is what the computer industry was in the early days
My first (frightening, omg yes!) computer experience was in front of a VAX terminal from Digital Corp back in 1983 when we HADTO learn Fortran 77 at the university econ dept. (oh m gawd:)
then
- Dos
- AS/400
- Win 93 (Christ, cant even remember if it was 92 or 93 :/
- else mostly Mac from 1993 plus experiments with Linux and Win in between
So yes I understand your post perfectly and agree with you, exactly!
Here’s my position. I first worked with an IBM 1620 mainframe. I learned machine code, assemblers, Fortran 66, and COBOL. I was one of the first owners of a Commodore Vic 20. I wrote and licensed software for Commodore. I’ve owned and built every version of PC you can think of, running OS’s from DOS to Win XP. I’ve been OS X only (except at work) since Apple released it.
The point of all this is that from day one, the dream was to be able to run a mainframe OS (Unix) on a home computer. In 1985 PCs were not capable of running a real OS like Unix. MS DOS filled the need for a simple and small OS that a PC could run. BASIC was the preferred user programming interface.
Microsoft has tried to preserve that model far beyond the point where home computers have acquired the ability to run any OS or application a mainframe can run. Microsoft has made that effort in order to preserve its proprietary monopoly. We have now reached the point, especially with Leopard being certified as a standard version of Unix, where Microsoft’s proprietary position is not only unsustainable, going forward it is going to limit what users can do with a Windows based PC.
I therefor give Microsoft 3 years before it becomes a minority OS. It doesn’t much matter whether users know what OS they are running. The deficiencies in a Windows based machine will speak for themselves. Microsoft will more and more become the AOL or McDonalds of the computer world.
Are we talking PCs or computing devices running an OS? If it includes devices I’ll go with the three years. If it’s PCs alone I’ll go with five. Folks, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
I’m going with the long end of the scale (7 years), mostly because there will still be companies locked into Windows-only software for at least 5-10 years, IMO. For the same reason you still see old Macs hanging around certain places, you’ll see old Windows PCs hanging around as long as they continue to run. In terms of new, shipping machines though, 7 years sounds right before OSX/Linux/etc overtake Windows in units shipped per year. That is, unless MS finds a way out of the corner they’ve painted themselves into. I won’t count them completely out, they’ve done it before.
I went with 7 years because I didn’t see the volume market in China and India going away from Windows. Sort of running along behind US and Europe by a few years, and therefore growing MS’s installed base for a few more years. Added to that is the home PC’s that will never be replaced and hence never switch away from Windows.
But if we are talking about devices, rather than PC’s, Linux, Symbian, FreeBSD and OS X are romping ahead of Microsoft. They just don’t have MS’s revenues at present.
On the way up, a key element of Microsoft’s growth strategy was cooking the books at the same time as allowing rampant piracy. The corresponding thing on the way down is Windows plus Office for $3 in developing markets.
The consumer PC market we have in US and Europe will IMO never develop in new markets in the same way; mobile devices (connecting to LCD TV’s when required) covers the need.
How would you be measuring this? Number of copies sold per year? Copies sold plus copies pirated? Number of computers in use running the OS?
We’ve had mobile phones for a long time, and they’ve always had an OS of some sort. Maybe they were not smartphones, but they still had to run something. If we count the software embedded in our phones, cars, set-top boxes, graphing calculators, alarm systems, MP3 players, game consoles, etc. Microsoft is already in the minority and always has been. We can’t rightly point to them as evidence that Microsoft is in decline.
That said, there need to be a few choices between “7 years” and “Not in our lifetime.” I think 7 years is unrealistically short considering the momentum Microsoft has. They dominate every store that sells computers. In fact most computer stores don’t sell anything but Microsoft preloaded. And virtually every business runs them on the desktop. That kind of presence doesn’t just disappear over night.
Consider the speed at which IT moves in companies with tens of thousands of employees. Even if all these installations were to decide to switch away from Microsoft today, it would take years before the transition were complete. And most of them are not planning a switch.
On the flipside, I hope I have at least 50 years left in my life and that’s a long time for one company to own a market. Microsoft will probably fall within my lifetime, but if I tried to say when that would happen it would just be a blind guess.
I see the OS method of using desktop computers as being viable for 50+ years. And I see MS as being entrenched in global government agencies and large businesses for PCs. MS is also completely dominant in poorer countries including China and India.
For me to predict that MS would eventually be a minority in world PC OS marketshare in our lifetimes, I’d need to see where some other OS in about 10 years would be on track to grab about 20% worldwide marketshare. This is not happening. Yet.
The media likes to talk of the PC market like its just one market.
But there are multiple computer markets.
Business desktop
If you work in an office and use a PC, this is the market that supplies your PC.
Business imbedded
If you work in a factory or warehouse, and your systems are run by conmputer, this market supplies your imbedded system.
Business point of sale
If you work in retail, and your cash register is a PC with a cash box attached and perhaps a upc reader as well, this is your market.
Home consumer
This is the computer you buy for yourself at home.
So it is very misleading to say that Microsoft has this or that percentage of the market. Which one? Business imbedded? I’ll bet they don’t have a majority of that one.
The market most people think of is the Home Consumer market. I’d bet that Apple has way more than 6 or 8% of that one!
Also, people confuse market share with installed base.
Installed base is how many computers are installed and running. Market share is how many of the computers sold WITHIN THE CURRENT PERIOD were sold from which company.
The recent figures for Japan are significant, because they were MARKET SHARE figures. They showed Apple with a 68% share of the PCs sold in that market during that period. That’s market share, folks!
Does Apple have a majority of installed base in Japan?
No, of course, not.
But Apple could be selling a majority of PCs in any given market in a very short period of time, although it could take some years to overcome Microsoft’s installed base!
and agree with you, exactly!
