Never to be seen again… 

Never to be seen again… 

We’ll see…

CNBC says that after looking at retail sales this weekend, it wasn’t so much “Black Friday” as “Mac Friday” 

Never to be seen again… 

We’ll see…

Whatever happens in the next few days the next earnings announcement will force the market either to drop the p/e of aapl drastically or put her over 200. We don’t have long left at these levels imho.

It couldn’t have been much worse for fear and loathing in these last weeks, I am happy that aapl actually bore up reasonably well.

From the same piece (Jim Goldman on CNBC):

Piper says their checks show that on Black Friday Apple sold more than expected for Macs and all iPod models except Shuffle, while iPhones sold “slightly” below expectations (not clear what the expectations were).

Also of significance (and kudos to Tommo who has been saying this since the touch was introduced): “It appears that iPod sales a trending toward the higher-priced models such as the touch, which is good for investors.”

Goldman: “A lot of people are buying Macs that we really didn’t count on, we’ll see if that momentum continues into the holiday season.”

Real strength in the share price this morning reflecting all this great news. Things are slowly getting back to normal… Just need 98% of the world population to not buy an iPhone and we’re sorted.

I said last week I expected some positive earnings estimate revisions for AAPL post-weekend, and frankly I’m very disappointed in Piper Jaffray for not raising their Q1 08 number based on their widely-reported very bullish observations. They were happy to point out booming Mac sales, higher iPod ASPs, but didn’t want to raise their estimates in what is typical treatment of AAPL. For some reason, analysts hate hate hate to raise estimates for AAPL’s earnings even while gushing positively about sales. Its bizarre, and yet repeated quarter after quarter.

There have been similarly positive comments about AAPL by a few other players too, but again without any detailed earnings commentary or revisions.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]I said last week I expected some positive earnings estimate revisions for AAPL post-weekend, and frankly I’m very disappointed in Piper Jaffray for not raising their Q1 08 number based on their widely-reported very bullish observations. They were happy to point out booming Mac sales, higher iPod ASPs, but didn’t want to raise their estimates in what is typical treatment of AAPL. For some reason, analysts hate hate hate to raise estimates for AAPL’s earnings even while gushing positively about sales. Its bizarre, and yet repeated quarter after quarter.

There have been similarly positive comments about AAPL by a few other players too, but again without any detailed earnings commentary or revisions.

That is why I think we will hover around 180-200 between middle of Dec to middle of Jan.

Aapl is following the traditional pattern, where we get small slow gains during the quarter, with the biggest jumps post earnings.  WS only rewards this stock after they see the money.  They still think they got lucky last quarter.

In fact they believed that every quarter for the last 16

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”] For some reason, analysts hate hate hate to raise estimates for AAPL’s earnings even while gushing positively about sales. Its bizarre, and yet repeated quarter after quarter.

There have been similarly positive comments about AAPL by a few other players too, but again without any detailed earnings commentary or revisions.

It seems to me from the last few months of watching aapl that the only thing that aapl analysts are really happy to trust are the quarterly results from Apple itself; even though the calculations that are done on future earnings from the iPhone etc. are pretty clearly established it seems that until Apple book the profits no one is willing to raise too much.

The only bad side is that there is a ~3-month lag between share price and actual performance; but isn’t that a good thing for investors like us? Since we know better we can get an edge.

Sponge, I expect AAPL to rally over $200 in December unless the market swoons again or some serious fault in the company’s broader strategy emerges.

I also think a lot of people didn’t realise that OE in December is relatively late - on the 21st - and they sold off too fast, too early, IMO. Hell, there’s still a month to go on these things and they got trashed last week.

On a broader note, the nay-saying of the retail frenzy this weekend is truly astounding. Financial commentators everyone are virtually tripping over themselves talking down the strength. I can honestly say I have never seen a strong economy so “talked down” as this one.

Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs is talking AAPL up by the way. Again, no earnings revisions. What is with these people :x

[quote author=“mike_b”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”] For some reason, analysts hate hate hate to raise estimates for AAPL’s earnings even while gushing positively about sales. Its bizarre, and yet repeated quarter after quarter.

There have been similarly positive comments about AAPL by a few other players too, but again without any detailed earnings commentary or revisions.

It seems to me from the last few months of watching aapl that the only thing that aapl analysts are really happy to trust are the quarterly results from Apple itself; even though the calculations that are done on future earnings from the iPhone etc. are pretty clearly established it seems that until Apple book the profits no one is willing to raise too much.

The only bad side is that there is a ~3-month lag between share price and actual performance; but isn’t that a good thing for investors like us? Since we know better we can get an edge.

Bingo

My only problem is that I can only afford to buy after earnings, since that is when etrade truly increase my margin buying power after aapl goes up $15 in one day.

I’m planning on doing the exact opposite this time; sell half my stake after Jan earnings.

Apple, whose stores were closely watched over the holiday weekend, gained $4.92 to $176.43 on Nasdaq.

Goldman Sachs said the company “will have multiple winners once again this holiday season, with Macs a particular standout.”

J.P. Morgan characterized store traffic as “exceptional,” with brisk sales of Mac computers and iPods.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) was trading up 2% after the opening bell. A report from Deutsche Bank noted strong demand for the company’s iPods, iPhones and Mac computers over the shopping weekend.

Piper Jaffray called and raised iPod ASPs, Mac sales, said Apple Stores exerted a gravitational pull on nearby shoppers.

NOT A SINGLE EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION THOUGH :x

What is it with these guys???

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]S I can honestly say I have never seen a strong economy so “talked down” as this one.

Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs is talking AAPL up by the way. Again, no earnings revisions. What is with these people :x

I think the WS insiders know something that we have known for quite some time.  They are too inpatient and find themselves buying aapl before they can publicly justify it.

Here is a little secret that will keep the economy from collapsing despite the housing gloom and doom.

If you have a $1700 mortgage and another $650 a month in mortgage insurance, property tax, and homeowner insurance, and suddenly you can not refinance and are forced to pay another $500 a month in monthly payments, life is not over.  You keep it up for a few months before you give in.  In fact after you give in you fin that life just got better once you give that overpriced house back to the bank.

Now you rent for $1300 a month, and you realize that you have an extra $800 or so a month to spend on fun things like Apple stuff.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]

What is it with these guys???

They seem to come in a rush when they do come; maybe we just need one to start and then they’ll all jump on. Or maybe upgrading aapl simply doesn’t fit into the imminent recession narrative that is being played out, particularly by GS.