Dell reports this Thursday, and its being yet-again pumped by most analysts as a value buy.

Only AmTech seem to “get it.” In a witty headline, Barron’s reports:

Dell Will Beat Estimates Thursday, But The Stock’s Still a Turkey, Says Amtech

Dell (DELL) will probably beat sales and profit estimates when it reports third quarter financials this Thursday, but the stock is still less appealing than that of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Apple (AAPL), according to American Technology Research tech analyst Shaw Wu. He reiterated his Neutral rating on the stock.

Although Dell should benefit from continued strong performance in personal computer sales through the current quarter, the company’s direct sales model, and its relatively low exposure to overseas markets (at around 37% of sales), makes the stock less attractive than HP’s and Apple’s, trading at about 13x and 35x, respectively, forward earnings estimates, compared to roughly 16x for Dell. That, despite a 10% drop in the stock since July! “We prefer HPQ and AAPL due to their much stronger fundamentals and more attractive valuations.” Hewlett-Packard gets over half its sales from outside the U.S., a factor often cited in its favor amid the current uncertainty of the U.S. economy.

Wu expects Dell to beat the $15.3 billion in sales analysts are projecting for last quarter, and the average 35 cents earnings per share estimate, and he expects the company will give no forecast for the current quarter but rather make upbeat comments about PC demand. Wu cites the 42% rise in short-interest in Dell shares since August as an extremely bearish sentiment indicator. Short-squeeze, anyone?

Dell shares today are up nearly 2% at $26.20 on the company’s announcement that French retailer Carrefour will begin selling dell computers in France, Belgium and Spain.

i’m not sure how he gets the 35x multiple for AAPL’s fPE, when its actually more like 27x, but whatever.

Anyhoo, so now you can buy a DELL at Carrefour along with your vegetables. Apparently that’s enough to warrant a 2.5% rise today. European consumers will want to know: is it organic though:roll:

Is anyone short this pig?

So, with DELL’s buy back, that will reduce the number of outstanding shares. Do the analysts take into account the lower number of shares when estimating the EPS?

If not, look for Dell to beat the EPS with lower earnings.

[quote author=“CdnPhoto”]So, with DELL’s buy back, that will reduce the number of outstanding shares. Do the analysts take into account the lower number of shares when estimating the EPS?

If not, look for Dell to beat the EPS with lower earnings.

EPS is determined based on the number of shares outstanding at the time of the report. Trough the end of the previous quarter, Dell has used over $21 billion in shareholder cash for share buybacks.

IMHO this is not the best use of shareholder dollars. Even with the buybacks, the share price is lower that it was five years ago on this date.

According to Briefing.com, iSuppli published a note this morning on the PC sector saying HP keeps “crushing” Dell in worldwide PC market share as of q3 ‘07, as HP’s PC unit sales grew 32.7% y/y while Dell’s PC unit sales grew just 1.5%. Certainly, HP’s latest quarterly reports reflected these market share gains and the stocks have traded accordingly the last few years.

So.. DELL grows unit sales by a pathetic 1.5% versus HPQ’s whopping 32.7% (and a similar number from AAPL as we know). What happens on this proof that DELL is getting slaughtered? The damn stock goes UP 1.5% today, going into its earnings report!! Amazing! Who the hell is buying this disaster zone of a company, this junk stock?

The writer goes on to say:

I think there is a genuine turnaround occurring at Dell that is in its earlier stages, and as the SEC investigation gets resolved and the accounting problems get put behind them, I think Dell can resume its former leadership role as a permier tech hardware retailer with the low-cost direct model.

The writer obviously hasn’t heard that DELL has lost its competitive edge here and is having to go the retail route because people just don’t want to buy direct from them any more. Nor does it get the back-breaking deals on components that it used to, and neither do suppliers want to bend over backwards, and forwards, for Michael Dell and get shafted.

The pathetic and desperate yearning of the poor delusional DELL holders for good times of yore never ceases to amaze me. Why anyone would ever want to bother with this broken company is totally beyond me, when there are so many other choices out there. So what if there’s potential for a 10% pop in DELL… why the hell bother, when the risk to the downside is so glaringly obvious

Anyhoo, DELL reports tonight and no doubt every word Michael Dell utters will be fawned over by the Street, all-dazzled by the return of His Halo-ness and the mighty Dell Conference Call.

Ugh.. the humanity, the humanity! Think of the children….

Since Dell is growing less slowly (or perhaps not at all depending on the numbers in today’s results), it should not longer be considered a growth company but a company in a cycle of decline. IMHO there should be no premium paid for the shares whatsover above the book value of the firm.

Dell have introduced new indirect channels (Walmart, Staples, others overseas) which can be filled with product and invoiced to manipulate revenues, and even earnings. So it’s hard to predict what the reported numbers will be. But as a matter of prnciple I will be holding a (small) short position over earnings every quarter until Dell achieves stability, and a share price that reflects that stability.

I think we also have to wait until this first real signed-off set of accounts have been filed with the SEC before we can be sure the SEC has revealed its full case against Dell. If there is more to come, explicit sworn accounts could be an important component of any legal action against officers. But of course such a thing is unthinkable for Dell Inc.

[quote author=“sleepygeek”]Dell have introduced new indirect channels (Walmart, Staples, others overseas) which can be filled with product and invoiced to manipulate revenues, and even earnings. So it’s hard to predict what the reported numbers will be. But as a matter of prnciple I will be holding a (small) short position over earnings every quarter until Dell achieves stability, and a share price that reflects that stability. I think we also have to wait until this first real signed-off set of accounts have been filed with the

Those channels will most likely not report attractives ASPs and I’ll bet have reduced gross margins. The questions I have is the extent of channel stuffing at the end of the periods (weeks of inventory reported sold but still in the stores) and to the extent those channels have reduced sales through traditional upsell channels which would producr higher ASPs and margins.

Dell misses by .01 ($0.34 vs $0.35)
Stock gets hit hard.

Down over $2.11 so far in the AH

Listen to the conference call live here:

http://www.dell.com/content/topics/global.aspx/corp/investor/en/webcast_33?c=us&l=en&s=corp

So US consumer share shrunk. Dell says it is pinning all its growth hopes on Asia.

Congrats boys! You’re going to be selling your cheapest, lowest margin, least profitable products in the most competitive markets on earth to people who have absolutely zero brand loyalty to you against local manufacturers who can undercut you and are happy to take and give bribes to get the business done.

Hey, DELL’s going down the $hitter again

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]So US consumer share shrunk. Dell says it is pinning all its growth hopes on Asia.

Congrats boys! You’re going to be selling your cheapest, lowest margin, least profitable products in the most competitive markets on earth to people who have absolutely zero brand loyalty to you against local manufacturers who can undercut you and are happy to take and give bribes to get the business done.

Hey, DELL’s going down the $hitter again

Losing market share to Apple?

Christ, this conference call is like death by a thousand cuts. I feel like I’m being flogged to death with buzz words, industry speak, and bullshit - its pure smoke and mirrors, as expected. All vague promises, no details, hot air.

[quote author=“rattyuk”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Hey, DELL’s going down the $hitter again

Losing market share to Apple?

Some, but much more to HP

What a dreary conference call. In the Q&A the analysts seem to have realised that nothing’s happening at Dell. Now down 11% from the close.

It’s a $17 stock. Now it may finally be moving toward that price. Who the heck would want to buy the shares at anything higher?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“rattyuk”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Hey, DELL’s going down the $hitter again

Losing market share to Apple?

Some, but much more to HP

But the market share being lost to Apple is the higher ASP and higher gross margin share. That’s the share that hurts the most to lose.