Just from the (never boring) Cringely Press @ his site

When Networks Collide: AT&T suddenly doesn’t like Apple so much

I don’t think Stephenson’s statement was by accident and I don’t think he is out of touch with reality. I think, instead, he was sending a $1 billion message to Apple CEO Steve Jobs.

The full article:
When Networks Collide

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson this week said what I have been saying since last July—that Apple and AT&T would soon introduce an iPhone that works with AT&T’s faster 3G wireless data network. I said it because I had heard last summer that AT&T was already testing 3G iPhones in Florida, but the better question is why Stephenson said it and why now? For AT&T, his announcement looks, frankly, stupid.

Oh Christ.. here goes Cringley again. A 3G phone was always on the cards.. more recently, SJ said in October he expected one “late next year.” This is Cringley at his worst, unfortunately. I think its complete rubbish to read into AT&T’s statement any disagreement between them.

SJ is not going to screw over AT&T, because if he did it would totally undermine all his negotiations with other global networks with whom he is still trying to partner.

Total rubbish.

But Tommo ! Why on earth would Stephenson be gabbling about 3G iPhones way ahead of birth - and saying “Steve dictates the price”  und so on ? He’s not brain dead, is he ?

[quote author=“xumbra”]But Tommo ! Why on earth would Stephenson be gabbling about 3G iPhones way ahead of birth - and saying “Steve dictates the price”  und so on ? He’s not brain dead, is he ?

I think he and the other folk in charge of the networks have had it good for so long that they have an over-inflated view of their own importance. SJ has come in and is trying to disrupt the market. Now that AT&T have got the iPhone, they are reverting back to type and think they can dictate things.

[quote author=“xumbra”]But Tommo ! Why on earth would Stephenson be gabbling about 3G iPhones way ahead of birth - and saying “Steve dictates the price”  und so on ? He’s not brain dead, is he ?

SJ is not perfect. He has lousy people skills but He is a genius and has the ability to not only see the road ahead but to navigate it. He is directly responsible for making a lot of this boards members financially better off; however it is quite possible he is a pain in the ass to deal with and does not conform to the few social niceties that the business world expects. Mr Stephenson probably personally dislikes Mr Jobs but he is still the ‘golden goose’ and the AT&T CEO will swallow hard and shut up.

[quote author=“wheeles”][quote author=“xumbra”]But Tommo ! Why on earth would Stephenson be gabbling about 3G iPhones way ahead of birth - and saying “Steve dictates the price”  und so on ? He’s not brain dead, is he ?

I think he and the other folk in charge of the networks have had it good for so long that they have an over-inflated view of their own importance. SJ has come in and is trying to disrupt the market. Now that AT&T have got the iPhone, they are reverting back to type and think they can dictate things.

Sort of like the geniuses running the music business?
In a year or so we’ll be hearing the wireless guys complaining about how they gave away the farm in negotiations with Apple.

Cringley may or may not be off his rocker, but the following quote from his article is intriguing:

“What I believe is troubling the relationship between AT&T and Apple is the upcoming auction for 700-MHz wireless spectrum and AT&T’s discovery that—as I have predicted for weeks—Apple will be joining Google in bidding. AT&T thought its five-year “exclusive” iPhone agreement with Apple would have precluded such a bid, but that just shows how poorly Randall Stephenson understood Steve Jobs,” Cringely writes.

[quote author=“lumi”]Cringley may or may not be off his rocker, but the following quote from his article is intriguing:

“What I believe is troubling the relationship between AT&T and Apple is the upcoming auction for 700-MHz wireless spectrum and AT&T’s discovery that—as I have predicted for weeks—Apple will be joining Google in bidding. AT&T thought its five-year “exclusive” iPhone agreement with Apple would have precluded such a bid, but that just shows how poorly Randall Stephenson understood Steve Jobs,” Cringely writes.

Yes, well the news today that Google is bidding alone should put paid to that theory.

As one of the Pulpit reader comments notes, SJ already said we could expect a 3G iPhone later next year, and that Apple is already working on multiple generations of iPhones.

My interpretation was that Stephenson believed he wasn’t saying anything that wasn’t already public knowledge. The idea that Apple wouldn’t update iPhone for 2 years after the January announcement of the original iPhone is simply silly, so Cringely’s idea that this statement will kill iPhone sales is even sillier. Most iPhone buyers haven’t a clue what the difference is anyway.

Cringely writes from his own world view, which is based on a long history in the business, but increasingly he exhibits some craziness in his ideas. Nevertheless, he makes important connections at times, and there’s no doubt that there is long term uneasiness between AT&T and Apple. That’s just the nature of business partnerships.

There is no way Apple is going up against AT&T to become a lumbering infrastructure provider. Both Apple & Google’s objective is ensure that wireless broadband is not partitioned into walled gardens, but is open to carry their services, both ad-funded and customer funded. I don’t believe AT&T has a problem with that. It may drive margins down, but it also gives AT&T a competitive advantage in delivering that natural monopoly of universal service. And Apple has given AT&T a monopoly for five years. It’s for AT&T to lose that business beyond the 5 years; they should easily be able to compete wtih whatever Apple might consider as replacement.

Even though Apple will not be partnering with Google to bid on spectrum, Stephenson has to be a little unsettled by the fact that Schmidt and Gore sit on Apple’s board during a time when Google and AAPL are both making progress towards restructuring the mobile world. Stephenson might be a very sharp guy, but he’s got to know his handle on technology-driven change can’t be quite up to par with that of Steve Jobs and Eric Schmidt. Will be fascinating to watch.

[quote author=“lumi”]Even though Apple will not be partnering with Google to bid on spectrum, Stephenson has to be a little unsettled by the fact that Schmidt and Gore sit on Apple’s board during a time when Google and AAPL are both making progress towards restructuring the mobile world. Stephenson might be a very sharp guy, but he’s got to know his handle on technology-driven change can’t be quite up to par with that of Steve Jobs and Eric Schmidt. Will be fascinating to watch.

“... keep your enemies closer,” etc…

I won’t be buying the iPhone I had planned to, because I now think 3G phones are right around the corner. Even if it’s 6 months away, it’s a lot of money to spend on something with an obvious flaw (EDGE) when something newer (3G) was just announced.

[quote author=“DrShakagee”]I won’t be buying the iPhone I had planned to, because I now think 3G phones are right around the corner. Even if it’s 6 months away, it’s a lot of money to spend on something with an obvious flaw (EDGE) when something newer (3G) was just announced.

Your perception that it is a flaw may be flawed. People in fact find EDGE acceptable; certainly fine for email and emergency browsing, and that’s really all the internet most people want when away from WiFi. Unlimited 3G data contracts may be substantially more expensive than EDGE, and they are still nowhere near WiFi speed.

So it’s really no different to the annual growth of PC speeds and memory sizes, which argue against ever buying a computer (you’ll get one 20% better within months, so wait).

[quote author=“lumi”]Cringley may or may not be off his rocker, but the following quote from his article is intriguing:

“What I believe is troubling the relationship between AT&T and Apple is the upcoming auction for 700-MHz wireless spectrum and AT&T’s discovery that—as I have predicted for weeks—Apple will be joining Google in bidding. AT&T thought its five-year “exclusive” iPhone agreement with Apple would have precluded such a bid, but that just shows how poorly Randall Stephenson understood Steve Jobs,” Cringely writes.

It’s always been my belief that Apple will make it’s deal with AT&T increasingly irrelevant as time goes by.  Yes, the agreement locks them in as the cell service provider, but well before the 5 year expiration date cell service may be as obsolete as a cassette tape.  I have to believe that SJ had an escape strategy in mind all along.

[quote author=“Zeke”]It’s always been my belief that Apple will make its deal with AT&T increasingly irrelevant as time goes by. Yes, the agreement locks them in as the cell service provider, but well before the 5 year expiration date cell service may be as obsolete as a cassette tape. I have to believe that SJ had an escape strategy in mind all along.

If cell service is as obsolete as cassette tape, it won’t be transformation engineered only by Apple. I’m sure the contract specifies the wireless services for which AT&T has an exclusive. They will be well aware that it’s only current cellular infrastructure where they have an exclusive, and that their revenues are threatened in the medium term. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if the exclusive contract terminates automatically if an alternative technology develops equivalent coverage and capacity at lower cost in less than 5 years.