Re: Just another boost for Apple estimates—

[quote author=“Constable Odo”]Leopard sales adding to this quarter’s revenue.  Not exactly new news but nice just the same.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/56283-apple-s-leopard-could-propel-macs-beyond-estimates?source=feed

It’s amusing that Shaw Wu used to be very conservative when it came to Apple estimates.  He seems to be going with the flow now.

2.3 million Macs in the quarter and few are raising earnings estimates and target prices. 

Hmm, is Microsoft Windows loosing market share for the first time ever ?

Is Linux (half)dead or just naked ? Who is in charge ?

How will this play out over the next 24 months ?

Link: SWITCHTOAMAC

[quote author=“xumbra”]

How will this play out over the next 24 months ?

Let’s see the December and January numbers then we’ll talk.

Orange sold 30,000 iPhones so far .

[quote author=“Mace”] Orange sold 30,000 iPhones so far .

Great news! Thanks Mace

[quote author=“Mace”] Orange sold 30,000 iPhones so far .

Saw this about 17% of Orange stores in France sold out of iPhones . Now we know who was coming to NYC and buying up all the phones about a month ago - the French!

[quote author=“rezonate”][quote author=“Mace”] Orange sold 30,000 iPhones so far .Saw this about 17% of Orange stores in France sold out of iPhones . Now we know who was coming to NYC and buying up all the phones about a month ago - the French!

Thanks! I loved these stats:

Orange sold 12,000 units on day one which is pretty significant compared to Germany which only sold 10,000.

30,000 units were sold in 5 days, with 48% being new lines with the Orange service.

Orange France Executive, Louis-Pierre Wenes also stated that 80% of customers subscribed to the 24 month commitment with plans spanning Ђ49-119.

Considering what just transpired in Germany between T-Mobile and Vodafone, Vodafone is being blasted with both barrels in France. First with SRF and their “Illimythics” which went on sale on November 14 garnering 60% new customers with 40,000 units to be followed in 15 days by Orange France and the iPhone. It is no wonder Vodafone is trying alternate ways to stem the flow of Red ink.

[quote author=“rezonate”][quote author=“Mace”] Orange sold 30,000 iPhones so far .

Saw this about 17% of Orange stores in France sold out of iPhones . Now we know who was coming to NYC and buying up all the phones about a month ago - the French!

Lots of Catalans are on its way to New York too because tomorrow is a holiday and they plant to be there for several days including next weekend. With enough time and prevision, it has been possible to find prices for flights from Barcelona to NY as low as 1.5Ђ !. With a dollar so cheap buying in the US must be really a bargain.

[quote author=“rezonate”]Now we know who was coming to NYC and buying up all the phones about a month ago - the French!

OK no more freedom fries…. You can now officially call them French Fries again!!!

d

[quote author=“carbonat”]

Lots of Catalans are on its way to New York too because tomorrow is a holiday and they plant to be there for several days including next weekend. With enough time and prevision, it has been possible to find prices for flights from Barcelona to NY as low as 1.5Ђ !. With a dollar so cheap buying in the US must be really a bargain.

And logs are cheaper here too.

I’m not sure how many folk here follow Notable Calls, but I just saw this, which could make for an interesting day:

Citigroup (NYSE:C): C Has Single Largest Exposure to Highest Risk US Mortgage Market, Lowering Ests - CIBC
CIBC is out with an important call on the financial sector saying the modern foundation of the lending market is about to be uprooted as FICO scores, the long trusted gauge for lenders in determining risk and price, will prove virtually meaningless in this credit cycle.
Today, as a higher percentage of people own homes and many of them have taken on “too much house” or high LTV loans, things are different. Many previously considered “prime” customers who took on 80+% LTVs are performing closer to sub-prime loans. While “indirect” exposure to sub-prime losses has already been felt through banks’ exposure to mortgage backed securities of all flavors, CDOs, RMBS, etc., the firm believes the impact of “direct” exposures to subprime loans on the books has yet to be truly appreciated by investors.

High LTV mortgage loans is the greatest risk pool of U.S. consumer loans, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) has the single highest exposure to it. CIBC estimates that C will incur losses on such loans of $4-6.5 billion in 2008, or 31% to 51% of its 3Q07 total loss reserve. Accordingly, they are again lowering their estimates.

Firm’s 2008 EPS estimate is now $2.95, down almost 10% from our prior estimate and nearly 30% below consensus. They believe downside for C is under $30 or 2-2.5x $11.70 estimate for tangible book value.

CIBC continues to rate Citigroup Sector Underperformer. Trading at 11x 2008 EPS estimate, shares are expensive, in firm’s opinion, given that in the early 1990s, a troubled C traded as low as 7x forward EPS estimates.

Notablecalls: While the market is currently trading up in the pre-market, I suspect this call may cause it to go into red territory today. We have heard a lot about the turmoil in the mortgage backed securities side with some claiming that the problems are well insulated. CIBC’s call gives another glimpse at the thing and I must say it’s not a pretty one. The loans with high LTV ratios mean borrowers have put little skin in the game and have little equity in their home, and thus will be less motivated to stay current on that loan. A high LTV loan can turn even the most prime/high FICO borrower into a sub prime performing borrower.

This means the problems may run much deeper than currently anticipated.

It also looks like Citigroup (NYSE:C) is in the center of this maelstrom. If CIBC is right, I suspect the stock is headed lower here. Shorting C here in the pre-mkt (while it’s still in the green) may prove to be a money-making idea.

Please note that CIBC is also taking their ests down on JPM.

Quoting the following excerpt again because this is the *leverage* Apple can use as it pursues new carrier agreements in new countries. The following news means better terms and more money for Apple and its shareholders:

...also announced that 30,000 units were sold in 5 days, with 48% being new lines with the Orange service. Orange France Executive, Louis-Pierre Wenes also stated that 80% of customers subscribed to the 24 month commitment with plans spanning Ђ49-119. Considering what just transpired in Germany between T-Mobile and Vodafone, Vodafone is being blasted with both barrels in France.

Very exciting stuff with big implications moving forward.

[quote author=“Louis Pierre Wenes, Orange France Exec”]« C’est un trиs beau score, d’autant plus que prиs d’un achat d’iPhone sur deux se fait avec l’ouverture d’une nouvelle ligne chez Orange »

in bold: nearly one out of every two iPhones is sold to a new customer (!)

[quote author=“MaCroissant”][quote author=“Louis Pierre Wenes, Orange France Exec”]« C’est un trиs beau score, d’autant plus que prиs d’un achat d’iPhone sur deux se fait avec l’ouverture d’une nouvelle ligne chez Orange »

in bold: nearly one out of every two iPhones is sold to a new customer (!)

Orange must be completely thrilled with this.

But more importantly, these results give Apple incredible leverage when negotiating with prospective partners, because the proof is right here that the iPhone drives new business to networks both in terms of large numbers and in the highest-yielding segment of their business: long-term, data-centric high value contracts.

China Mobile take note.

Too funny how Vodafone screwed this up in the US and then proceeded to do it in Europe Danger! Danger, Arun Sarin! Strategic Error! 

This was reported in The Register a few todays ago, but cnet’s take on the possibility of Leopard running Windows apps natively is more than a little bullish:

If what The Register writes is even remotely true, the writing is on the wall for Microsoft’s desktop dominance. What does it say? “Game over.”